比特币的MVRV动量：恢复在空中谨慎吗？

比特币篮板，但MVRV表示警告。公牛跑步是褪色的，还是还有生长的空间？通过有关恢复和风险的见解，将BTC的十字路口导航。

Bitcoin's MVRV Momentum: Recovery Caution in the Air?

比特币的MVRV动量：恢复在空中谨慎吗？

Bitcoin's recent rebound has sparked excitement, but on-chain data suggests a need for recovery caution. Is the bull run losing steam, or is there more upside potential ahead? Let's dive into the latest.

比特币最近的反弹引起了兴奋，但链上的数据表明需要恢复谨慎。公牛奔跑会失去蒸汽吗？还是未来有更多的上升潜力？让我们研究最新。

Bitcoin at a Crossroads

比特币在十字路口

Bitcoin (BTC) has shown impressive resilience, rebounding 10% since last Sunday and reclaiming the $106,000 level. This recovery comes after a dip caused by geopolitical tensions, showcasing the underlying strength of the market. Bulls are confidently holding their ground, but momentum is stalling just below the critical $110,000 mark – the gateway to new all-time highs.

比特币（BTC）表现出了令人印象深刻的弹性，自上周日以来篮板10％，并获得了106,000美元的水平。这种恢复是在地缘政治紧张局势引起的下降之后，展示了市场的基本力量。公牛队自信地握住自己的地面，但动力正停在低于110,000美元的关键售价以下，这是通往新历史最高高点的门户。

MVRV Ratio: A Warning Sign?

MVRV比率：警告信号？

According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, the MVRV Ratio is flashing early warning signs. This metric, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, helps identify overvaluation zones. The 365-day moving average slope of the MVRV Ratio is starting to flatten, suggesting that bullish momentum could be fading, even as prices hold up.

根据加密量的链链数据，MVRV比率正在闪烁预警信号。该指标将比特币的市场价值与其实现价值进行了比较，有助于识别高估区。 MVRV比率的365天移动平均斜率开始变平，这表明，即使价格上涨，也可能会逐渐消失。

What Does This Mean for Traders?

这对交易者意味着什么？

This development doesn’t necessarily imply an imminent downtrend, but it does raise the possibility that Bitcoin is entering the late stages of this bull cycle. Historically, such phases often culminate in euphoric surges before topping out. Therefore, traders and investors must remain strategic, managing risk and capital allocation carefully.

这种发展并不一定意味着即将下降的趋势，但确实增加了比特币进入该公牛周期晚期的可能性。从历史上看，这样的阶段通常在兴高采烈的潮流中达到顶峰。因此，交易者和投资者必须保持战略性，管理风险和资本分配。

Navigating Local Resistance

导航局部阻力

Currently trading around $107,227, Bitcoin is facing local resistance at $109,300. A clean break above this level could trigger a push into price discovery, with bulls targeting $115,000 and beyond. However, rejection at this level could lead to a retest of the $105,000 support. The 200-period SMA around $96,365 remains the ultimate support base in case of a deeper correction.

比特币目前的交易约为107,227美元，面临当地电阻的109,300美元。高于此水平的干净突破可能会引发价格发现的推动，而公牛队的目标是115,000美元及以后。但是，在这个水平上的拒绝可能会导致重新获得105,000美元的支持。在更深层更深入的情况下，200美元的SMA约为96,365美元仍然是最终的支持基础。

My Two Sats

我的两个坐着

While the short-term recovery looks promising, the flattening MVRV Ratio suggests caution. It’s crucial to balance optimism with a pragmatic approach to risk management. Keep an eye on that $110,000 level – a break above it could signal the next major leg up, but be prepared for potential retracements if resistance holds. Tactical plays may be profitable, but ignoring macro and on-chain context at this stage could expose portfolios to unnecessary risk.

虽然短期恢复看起来很有希望，但变平的MVRV比表示谨慎。至关重要的是要平衡乐观情绪与务实的风险管理方法。请密切关注那个$ 110,000的水平 - 上面的休息可能会标志着下一个主要的腿，但如果阻力保持，请为潜在的回试做好准备。战术戏剧可能是有利可图的，但是在此阶段忽略宏观和链上环境可能会使投资组合面临不必要的风险。

The Bottom Line

底线

Bitcoin's journey is never boring, is it? Keep your wits about you, watch those key levels, and remember, even in the crypto world, caution is a virtue. Happy trading, and may the sats be ever in your favor!

比特币的旅程永远不会无聊，是吗？保持智慧，观察这些关键水平，并记住，即使在加密世界中，谨慎也是一种美德。愉快的交易，愿Sats对您有利！