隨著 ETF 需求激增，比特幣挖礦難度創歷史新高

隨著競爭的加劇和比特幣穩定在歷史高點附近，該行業面臨新的壓力。現在，礦工需要更多的運算能力來跟上步伐，從而導致成本更高，並可能對系統的可持續性造成壓力。

Rising Bitcoin prices and surging ETF demand are putting a strain on crypto miners. As demand rises, so does the competition, driving up mining costs and putting pressure on profits.

比特幣價格上漲和 ETF 需求激增給加密貨幣礦工帶來壓力。隨著需求的增加，競爭也隨之增加，推高了採礦成本並給利潤帶來壓力。

Fresh data from CryptoQuant reveals that over-the-counter (OTC) desks have maintained record-high Bitcoin supplies throughout 2024. Compared to H1, where OTC holdings ranged from 183,000 to 193,000 BTC, available supplies have more than doubled.

CryptoQuant 的最新數據顯示，場外交易 (OTC) 櫃檯在 2024 年保持創紀錄的比特幣供應量。

As of October, OTC desks held an average of 416,000 BTC, with the lowest and highest points being 393,000 BTC and 444,000 BTC on January 1 and December 15, respectively.

截至 10 月，OTC 櫃檯平均持有 416,000 BTC，最低點和最高點分別為 1 月 1 日和 12 月 15 日為 393,000 BTC 和 444,000 BTC。

CryptoQuant's analysis shows that ETFs have been making large-scale purchases of Bitcoin from OTC desks to meet surging demand. However, these purchases, which now account for 1% to 2% of OTC inventories, pale in comparison to H1.

CryptoQuant 的分析顯示，ETF 一直在從場外交易櫃檯大規模購買比特幣，以滿足不斷增長的需求。然而，這些採購目前佔場外庫存的 1% 至 2%，與上半年相比顯得蒼白無力。

During that period, daily ETF buys constituted up to 12% of OTC inventories. For a more substantial impact on OTC supplies, ETFs would need to ramp up demand significantly.

在此期間，每日 ETF 購買量佔場外庫存的比例高達 12%。為了對場外交易供應產生更實質的影響，ETF 需要大幅增加需求。

CryptoQuant also observed a shift in OTC desk dynamics, with overall Bitcoin balances no longer surging like they did earlier this year. During H2, their stockpiles rose by a total of 10K BTC, compared to increases of over 77,000 BTC and 92,000 BTC in August and June, respectively.

CryptoQuant 也觀察到場外交易平台動態的變化，比特幣整體餘額不再像今年稍早那樣激增。下半年，他們的庫存總計增加了 10,000 BTC，而 8 月和 6 月分別增加了 77,000 BTC 和 92,000 BTC。

Slipping into the final stretch of 2024, OTC desk balances only rose by 3,000 BTC over the last month. Lower daily Bitcoin inflows to these desks are contributing to the slowing inventory growth.

進入 2024 年最後階段，場外交易櫃檯餘額在上個月僅增加了 3,000 BTC。這些櫃檯的每日比特幣流入量減少導致庫存成長放緩。

From an average of 189,000 BTC year-to-date, inflows have dropped to around 90,000 BTC. This slowing supply may add upward pressure to Bitcoin's price if ETF demand remains strong.

從年初至今的平均 189,000 BTC 流入量已降至 90,000 BTC 左右。如果 ETF 需求保持強勁，供應放緩可能會增加比特幣價格的上行壓力。

U.S. election jitters hit Bitcoin prices as traders eye a possible retracement

由於交易員關注可能的回調，美國大選的緊張情緒打擊了比特幣價格

As the U.S. presidential election approaches, Bitcoin trading activity reached new heights with open interest hitting records this week. After pushing toward an all-time high of $73,800, BTC prices stumbled.

隨著美國總統大選的臨近，比特幣交易活動達到新的高度，本週未平倉合約創下歷史新高。在升至 73,800 美元的歷史高點後，比特幣價格出現下跌。

This signaled that market players are feeling the strain, with some analysts predicting a possible price retracement before any serious gains resume. Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto spotted a local bottom at $66,200, questioning if a bounce might follow.

這表明市場參與者正感受到壓力，一些分析師預測，在恢復大幅上漲之前，價格可能會回撤。 Crypto 的加密貨幣分析師 Titan 發現了 66,200 美元的局部底部，質疑是否會隨之而來的反彈。

His chart showed Ichimoku cloud data for a one-day timeframe, highlighting a price dip below the Tenkan-sen trend line, suggesting BTC could still slide further.

他的圖表顯示了一天時間範圍內的 Ichimoku 雲端數據，突顯價格跌破 Tenkan-sen 趨勢線，顯示 BTC 仍可能進一步下滑。

“BTC couldn’t close above Tenkan, signaling a possible more profound pullback. If the breakout is confirmed, we might see a retest of Kijun around $66,200, which could mark a local bottom,” he said.

「BTC 無法收於 Tenkan 上方，這表明可能出現更嚴重的回調。如果突破得到證實，我們可能會看到 Kijun 重新測試 66,200 美元左右，這可能標誌著局部底部，」他說。

After posting a 10% gain in October and closing the month above $70,000 for the first time since March, BTC prices faced market jitters as the election days approach.

在 10 月上漲 10% 並自 3 月以來首次收於 70,000 美元以上之後，隨著選舉日的臨近，比特幣價格面臨著市場不安。

Observers noted that election uncertainty could trigger short-term volatility, while Bitcoin’s overall supply-demand dynamics remained bullish. Investors expressed mixed opinions on how each candidate might impact the industry.

觀察家指出，選舉的不確定性可能引發短期波動，而比特幣的整體供需動態仍看漲。投資者對每位候選人可能對行業產生的影響表達了不同的看法。

“What’s driving price action is undoubtedly the election,” said Nic Puckrin, CEO at Coin Bureau, in a statement shared with traders on Friday.

Coin Bureau 執行長 Nic Puckrin 在周五與交易員分享的聲明中表示：“毫無疑問，選舉是推動價格走勢的因素。”

“The markets will take their cue based on who wins the White House. Trump is widely seen as pro-crypto, although irrespective of who wins, BTC is still primed for a pump,” Puckrin added.

「市場將根據誰入主白宮來做出暗示。川普被廣泛認為是支持加密貨幣的，儘管無論誰獲勝，比特幣仍然準備好上漲，」Puckrin 補充道。

These election-related tensions are amplifying Bitcoin’s typical October-November rally. Historically, these months have been strong for the cryptocurrency, with Bitcoin closing higher in seven of the last eleven Novembers.

這些與選舉相關的緊張局勢正在放大比特幣 10 月至 11 月的典型反彈。從歷史上看，這幾個月對加密貨幣來說一直表現強勁，過去 11 月中有 7 個月比特幣收盤走高。

While investors prepare for post-election swings, some traders are betting that a Trump win could add 10%–15% to Bitcoin's price, while a Harris victory might cause a similar-sized dip.

雖然投資者為大選後的波動做好準備，但一些交易員押注川普獲勝可能會使比特幣價格上漲 10% - 15%，而哈里斯獲勝可能會導致類似幅度的下跌。

This election season also overlaps with key milestones for Bitcoin. October marked six months since the last halving event, which halved the rate of new Bitcoin issuance. With supply tightening and demand increasing, some analysts believe Bitcoin is on the path to another record, though election volatility might be a stumbling block in the near term.

這個選舉季也與比特幣的關鍵里程碑重疊。十月標誌著上次減半事件以來的六個月，這起減半事件使新比特幣的發行量減半。隨著供應收緊和需求增加，一些分析師認為比特幣正在創下新紀錄，儘管選舉波動可能是短期內的絆腳石。