随着 ETF 需求激增，比特币挖矿难度创历史新高

随着竞争的加剧和比特币稳定在历史高点附近，该行业面临着新的压力。现在，矿工需要更多的计算能力来跟上步伐，从而导致成本更高，并可能对系统的可持续性造成压力。

Rising Bitcoin prices and surging ETF demand are putting a strain on crypto miners. As demand rises, so does the competition, driving up mining costs and putting pressure on profits.

比特币价格上涨和 ETF 需求激增给加密货币矿工带来压力。随着需求的增加，竞争也随之增加，从而推高了采矿成本并给利润带来压力。

Fresh data from CryptoQuant reveals that over-the-counter (OTC) desks have maintained record-high Bitcoin supplies throughout 2024. Compared to H1, where OTC holdings ranged from 183,000 to 193,000 BTC, available supplies have more than doubled.

CryptoQuant 的最新数据显示，场外交易 (OTC) 柜台在 2024 年一直保持创纪录的比特币供应量。与上半年 OTC 持有量从 183,000 到 193,000 BTC 相比，可用供应量增加了一倍多。

As of October, OTC desks held an average of 416,000 BTC, with the lowest and highest points being 393,000 BTC and 444,000 BTC on January 1 and December 15, respectively.

截至 10 月，OTC 柜台平均持有 416,000 BTC，最低点和最高点分别为 1 月 1 日和 12 月 15 日为 393,000 BTC 和 444,000 BTC。

CryptoQuant's analysis shows that ETFs have been making large-scale purchases of Bitcoin from OTC desks to meet surging demand. However, these purchases, which now account for 1% to 2% of OTC inventories, pale in comparison to H1.

CryptoQuant 的分析显示，ETF 一直在从场外交易柜台大规模购买比特币，以满足不断增长的需求。然而，这些采购目前占场外库存的 1% 至 2%，与上半年相比显得苍白无力。

During that period, daily ETF buys constituted up to 12% of OTC inventories. For a more substantial impact on OTC supplies, ETFs would need to ramp up demand significantly.

在此期间，每日 ETF 购买量占场外库存的比例高达 12%。为了对场外交易供应产生更实质性的影响，ETF 需要大幅增加需求。

CryptoQuant also observed a shift in OTC desk dynamics, with overall Bitcoin balances no longer surging like they did earlier this year. During H2, their stockpiles rose by a total of 10K BTC, compared to increases of over 77,000 BTC and 92,000 BTC in August and June, respectively.

CryptoQuant 还观察到场外交易平台动态的变化，比特币总体余额不再像今年早些时候那样激增。下半年，他们的库存总计增加了 10,000 BTC，而 8 月和 6 月分别增加了 77,000 BTC 和 92,000 BTC。

Slipping into the final stretch of 2024, OTC desk balances only rose by 3,000 BTC over the last month. Lower daily Bitcoin inflows to these desks are contributing to the slowing inventory growth.

进入 2024 年最后阶段，场外交易柜台余额在上个月仅增加了 3,000 BTC。这些柜台的每日比特币流入量减少导致库存增长放缓。

From an average of 189,000 BTC year-to-date, inflows have dropped to around 90,000 BTC. This slowing supply may add upward pressure to Bitcoin's price if ETF demand remains strong.

从年初至今的平均 189,000 BTC 流入量已降至 90,000 BTC 左右。如果 ETF 需求保持强劲，供应放缓可能会增加比特币价格的上行压力。

U.S. election jitters hit Bitcoin prices as traders eye a possible retracement

由于交易员关注可能的回调，美国大选的紧张情绪打击了比特币价格

As the U.S. presidential election approaches, Bitcoin trading activity reached new heights with open interest hitting records this week. After pushing toward an all-time high of $73,800, BTC prices stumbled.

随着美国总统大选的临近，比特币交易活动达到新的高度，本周未平仓合约创下历史新高。在升至 73,800 美元的历史高点后，比特币价格出现下跌。

This signaled that market players are feeling the strain, with some analysts predicting a possible price retracement before any serious gains resume. Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto spotted a local bottom at $66,200, questioning if a bounce might follow.

这表明市场参与者正感受到压力，一些分析师预测，在恢复大幅上涨之前，价格可能会回撤。 Crypto 的加密货币分析师 Titan 发现了 66,200 美元的局部底部，质疑是否会随之而来的反弹。

His chart showed Ichimoku cloud data for a one-day timeframe, highlighting a price dip below the Tenkan-sen trend line, suggesting BTC could still slide further.

他的图表显示了一天时间范围内的 Ichimoku 云数据，突出显示价格跌破 Tenkan-sen 趋势线，表明 BTC 仍可能进一步下滑。

“BTC couldn’t close above Tenkan, signaling a possible more profound pullback. If the breakout is confirmed, we might see a retest of Kijun around $66,200, which could mark a local bottom,” he said.

“BTC 无法收于 Tenkan 上方，这表明可能出现更严重的回调。如果突破得到证实，我们可能会看到 Kijun 重新测试 66,200 美元左右，这可能标志着局部底部，”他表示。

After posting a 10% gain in October and closing the month above $70,000 for the first time since March, BTC prices faced market jitters as the election days approach.

在 10 月份上涨 10% 并自 3 月份以来首次收于 70,000 美元以上之后，随着选​​举日的临近，比特币价格面临着市场不安。

Observers noted that election uncertainty could trigger short-term volatility, while Bitcoin’s overall supply-demand dynamics remained bullish. Investors expressed mixed opinions on how each candidate might impact the industry.

观察人士指出，选举的不确定性可能引发短期波动，而比特币的整体供需动态仍然看涨。投资者对每位候选人可能对行业产生的影响表达了不同的看法。

“What’s driving price action is undoubtedly the election,” said Nic Puckrin, CEO at Coin Bureau, in a statement shared with traders on Friday.

Coin Bureau 首席执行官尼克·普克林 (Nic Puckrin) 在周五与交易员分享的一份声明中表示：“毫无疑问，选举是推动价格走势的因素。”

“The markets will take their cue based on who wins the White House. Trump is widely seen as pro-crypto, although irrespective of who wins, BTC is still primed for a pump,” Puckrin added.

“市场将根据谁入主白宫来做出暗示。特朗普被广泛认为是支持加密货币的，尽管无论谁获胜，比特币仍然准备好上涨，”Puckrin 补充道。

These election-related tensions are amplifying Bitcoin’s typical October-November rally. Historically, these months have been strong for the cryptocurrency, with Bitcoin closing higher in seven of the last eleven Novembers.

这些与选举相关的紧张局势正在放大比特币 10 月至 11 月的典型反弹。从历史上看，这几个月对加密货币来说一直表现强劲，过去 11 月中有 7 个月比特币收盘走高。

While investors prepare for post-election swings, some traders are betting that a Trump win could add 10%–15% to Bitcoin's price, while a Harris victory might cause a similar-sized dip.

虽然投资者为大选后的波动做好准备，但一些交易员押注特朗普获胜可能会使比特币价格上涨 10% - 15%，而哈里斯获胜可能会导致类似幅度的下跌。

This election season also overlaps with key milestones for Bitcoin. October marked six months since the last halving event, which halved the rate of new Bitcoin issuance. With supply tightening and demand increasing, some analysts believe Bitcoin is on the path to another record, though election volatility might be a stumbling block in the near term.

这个选举季也与比特币的关键里程碑重叠。十月标志着上次减半事件以来的六个月，此次减半事件使新比特币的发行量减半。随着供应收紧和需求增加，一些分析师认为比特币正在创下新纪录，尽管选举波动可能是短期内的绊脚石。