比特幣是百萬富翁製造機嗎？

許多投資者夢想在市場上賺到數百萬美元。如今，潛在的百萬富翁經常將他們的財富累積計劃建立在比特幣（加密貨幣：BTC）的基礎上。

Many investors dream of making millions in the market. These days, would-be millionaires are often basing their wealth-building plans on Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC).

許多投資者夢想在市場上賺到數百萬美元。如今，潛在的百萬富翁經常將他們的財富累積計劃建立在比特幣（加密貨幣：BTC）的基礎上。

It's easy to see why, of course. Bitcoin has delivered market-stomping returns in its first 15 years, and many investing heavyweights expect the digital coin to reach epic prices in the long run. Moreover, crypto-based decentralized finance (DeFi) applications look ready to enter the mainstream financial culture.

當然，很容易看出原因。比特幣在誕生的前 15 年就帶來了令人驚嘆的市場回報，許多投資重量級人物預計，從長遠來看，這種數位貨幣將達到史詩般的價格。此外，基於加密貨幣的去中心化金融（DeFi）應用程式似乎已經準備好進入主流金融文化。

But what would it take to actually make a million from Bitcoin investments? In my eyes, there are three main paths through the Bitcoin market to the millionaire destination.

但如何從比特幣投資中真正賺到一百萬呢？在我看來，透過比特幣市場通往百萬富翁目的地的主要路徑有3條。

1. Invest early and multiply your investment by thousands of times

1. 儘早投資，讓您的投資成千倍成長

The visionary investors -- or, in many cases, crypto technology enthusiasts -- who got in on Bitcoin during its early days have enjoyed staggering rewards. The digital currency was worthless at first. In one famous example, a Florida man bought two pizzas in 2010 for 10,000 Bitcoin. Each pizza was worth $307.5 million at today's Bitcoin prices. I sure hope those pies were tasty.

在比特幣早期投資的有遠見的投資者——或者在許多情況下是加密技術愛好者——享受了驚人的回報。數位貨幣一開始毫無價值。在一個著名的例子中，一名佛羅裡達男子在 2010 年用 10,000 比特幣購買了兩個披薩。以今天的比特幣價格計算，每個披薩價值 3.075 億美元。我當然希望那些派好吃。

The pizza buyer was more of a crypto-tech pioneer than an investor, of course. Maybe the currency wouldn't have soared the way it did if he hadn't made that move. It was a silly Bitcoin test at the time, and the pizzas would have been cheap in hindsight if the Bitcoin project failed.

當然，這位披薩買家更像是加密技術先驅，而不是投資者。如果他沒有採取這項行動，也許貨幣就不會像現在這樣飆升。當時這是一個愚蠢的比特幣測試，如果比特幣專案失敗，事後看來披薩會很便宜。

But if you recognized the transformative potential of this revolutionary digital transaction ledger and invested accordingly, your initial Bitcoin investments may have multiplied by thousands of times. This path requires tremendous insight, patience, and a willingness to take on substantial risk. And honestly, you needed a generous helping of luck.

但如果您認識到這種革命性數位交易分類帳的變革潛力並進行相應投資，您最初的比特幣投資可能會增加數千倍。這條道路需要巨大的洞察力、耐心和承擔巨大風險的意願。老實說，你需要運氣的慷慨幫助。

2. Invest a lot of money today, aiming to double or triple your large investment fairly quickly

2.今天投入大量資金，目標是很快使您的巨額投資增加一倍或三倍

Another approach is to allocate a significant amount of capital to Bitcoin today, with the goal of doubling or tripling your investment as early as 2025.

另一種方法是今天將大量資金分配給比特幣，目標是最早在 2025 年將投資增加一倍或三倍。

That's the approach of existing millionaires such as Ark Invest's Cathie Wood and MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) chairman Michael Saylor. They expect Bitcoin to reach million-dollar prices per coin in the long run thanks to widespread adoption and an anti-inflationary system design. Moreover, they expect the price to skyrocket pretty quickly based on the halving and spot-price ETF developments.

這就是 Ark Invest 的 Cathie Wood 和 MicroStrategy（納斯達克股票代碼：MSTR）董事長 Michael Saylor 等現有百萬富翁的做法。他們預計，由於廣泛採用和抗通膨系統設計，從長遠來看，比特幣的價格將達到百萬美元。此外，根據減半和現貨 ETF 的發展，他們預計價格將很快飆升。

Wood, for example, thinks the cryptocurrency could reach $3.8 billion per coin in 2030. That target works out to Bitcoin doubling in price every year for six years, on average. The road to that plateau surely won't be smooth, given the cyclical nature of Bitcoin halvings and of cryptocurrency prices in general. But let's say you agree that Bitcoin should double in price over a certain time span. The easy way to a million-dollar investment would be to start with $500,000 and let the market forces play out.

例如，Wood 認為，到 2030 年，加密貨幣的單枚價值可能會達到 38 億美元。考慮到比特幣減半和加密貨幣價格整體的周期性，通往這個平台的道路肯定不會一帆風順。但假設您同意比特幣的價格在一定時間內應該會翻倍。獲得百萬美元投資的簡單方法是從 50 萬美元開始，讓市場力量發揮作用。

While this strategy carries less risk than the first scenario, it still demands a keen understanding of the market and the ability to time your entries and exits effectively. And it also requires a large original investment. The math is very simple: A bigger bet can reach your lofty return target with a smaller gain.

雖然這種策略的風險比第一種情況要小，但它仍然需要對市場有敏銳的了解，並且能夠有效地掌握入場和退出時機。而且還需要大量的原始投資。數學很簡單：更大的賭注可以以更小的收益達到您的崇高回報目標。

3. Take a long-term approach, patiently adding to your Bitcoin investment for years

3.採取長期策略，多年耐心增加你的比特幣投資

The third and most prudent path is to gradually build your Bitcoin holdings over an extended period, as part of a diversified investment portfolio. By consistently adding to your position and allowing your investment to compound over time, you can potentially achieve life-changing wealth without exposing yourself to excessive volatility.

第三種也是最謹慎的途徑是在較長時間內逐步增加比特幣持有量，作為多元化投資組合的一部分。透過不斷增加您的部位並讓您的投資隨著時間的推移實現複利，您有可能獲得改變生活的財富，而無需讓自己面臨過度的波動。

So maybe Cathie Wood's analysis makes sense but you're happy to wait until 2030. In that case, buying 26% of a Bitcoin today should get the job done at a total cost of $17,400.

因此，也許 Cathie Wood 的分析是有道理的，但你很樂意等到 2030 年。

You might prefer Michael Saylor's more long-term analysis. His base scenario involves Bitcoin prices soaring to $13 million by the year 2045. The digital currency would then be worth about $280 trillion and hold 7% of the global wealth. With this target, you could invest $515 in one-thirteenth of a Bitcoin today and wait for 21 years. The average annual rate of return is a princely 29% in this case -- still outlandishly high but much lower than doubling each year.

您可能更喜歡邁克爾·塞勒的更長期的分析。他的基本設想是，到 2045 年，比特幣價格將飆升至 1,300 萬美元。有了這個目標，你今天可以投資 515 美元購買十分之一的比特幣，然後等待 21 年。在這種情況下，平均年回報率為 29%——仍然高得離譜，但遠低於每年翻倍的水平。

Again, the math is simple. The longer you can stay invested in a winning asset, the larger your final return should be.

同樣，數學很簡單。您對獲勝資產的投資時間越長，您的最終回報就應該越大。

Caveats

注意事項

Of course, there are many caveats to all of my forward-looking projections.

當然，我的所有前瞻性預測都有很多警告。

I'm assuming that the cryptocurrency market as a whole should gain value over time, and that Bitcoin will stay in the vanguard.

我假設整個加密貨幣市場應該隨著時間的推移而增值，而比特幣將保持領先地位。

Alternative wealth management coins or entirely different digital money solutions won't kick Bitcoin off the throne.

替代性財富管理硬幣或完全不同的數位貨幣解決方案不會將比特幣從王位上趕下來。

Progress in artificial intelligence and quantum

人工智慧和量子的進展