比特币是百万富翁制造者吗？

许多投资者梦想在市场上赚到数百万美元。如今，潜在的百万富翁经常将他们的财富积累计划建立在比特币（加密货币：BTC）的基础上。

Many investors dream of making millions in the market. These days, would-be millionaires are often basing their wealth-building plans on Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC).

许多投资者梦想在市场上赚到数百万美元。如今，潜在的百万富翁经常将他们的财富积累计划建立在比特币（加密货币：BTC）的基础上。

It's easy to see why, of course. Bitcoin has delivered market-stomping returns in its first 15 years, and many investing heavyweights expect the digital coin to reach epic prices in the long run. Moreover, crypto-based decentralized finance (DeFi) applications look ready to enter the mainstream financial culture.

当然，很容易看出原因。比特币在其诞生的前 15 年里就带来了令人惊叹的市场回报，许多投资重量级人物预计，从长远来看，这种数字货币将达到史诗般的价格。此外，基于加密货币的去中心化金融（DeFi）应用程序似乎已经准备好进入主流金融文化。

But what would it take to actually make a million from Bitcoin investments? In my eyes, there are three main paths through the Bitcoin market to the millionaire destination.

但如何才能从比特币投资中真正赚到一百万呢？在我看来，通过比特币市场通往百万富翁目的地的主要路径有3条。

1. Invest early and multiply your investment by thousands of times

1. 尽早投资，让您的投资成千倍增长

The visionary investors -- or, in many cases, crypto technology enthusiasts -- who got in on Bitcoin during its early days have enjoyed staggering rewards. The digital currency was worthless at first. In one famous example, a Florida man bought two pizzas in 2010 for 10,000 Bitcoin. Each pizza was worth $307.5 million at today's Bitcoin prices. I sure hope those pies were tasty.

在比特币早期投资的有远见的投资者——或者在很多情况下是加密技术爱好者——享受到了惊人的回报。数字货币一开始毫无价值。在一个著名的例子中，一名佛罗里达男子在 2010 年用 10,000 比特币购买了两个披萨。按今天的比特币价格计算，每个披萨价值 3.075 亿美元。我当然希望那些馅饼好吃。

The pizza buyer was more of a crypto-tech pioneer than an investor, of course. Maybe the currency wouldn't have soared the way it did if he hadn't made that move. It was a silly Bitcoin test at the time, and the pizzas would have been cheap in hindsight if the Bitcoin project failed.

当然，这位披萨买家更像是加密技术先驱，而不是投资者。如果他没有采取这一行动，也许货币就不会像现在这样飙升。当时这是一个愚蠢的比特币测试，如果比特币项目失败，事后看来披萨会很便宜。

But if you recognized the transformative potential of this revolutionary digital transaction ledger and invested accordingly, your initial Bitcoin investments may have multiplied by thousands of times. This path requires tremendous insight, patience, and a willingness to take on substantial risk. And honestly, you needed a generous helping of luck.

但如果您认识到这种革命性数字交易分类账的变革潜力并进行相应投资，您最初的比特币投资可能会增加数千倍。这条道路需要巨大的洞察力、耐心和承担巨大风险的意愿。老实说，你需要运气的慷慨帮助。

2. Invest a lot of money today, aiming to double or triple your large investment fairly quickly

2.今天投入大量资金，目标是很快使您的巨额投资增加一倍或三倍

Another approach is to allocate a significant amount of capital to Bitcoin today, with the goal of doubling or tripling your investment as early as 2025.

另一种方法是今天将大量资金分配给比特币，目标是最早在 2025 年将投资增加一倍或三倍。

That's the approach of existing millionaires such as Ark Invest's Cathie Wood and MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) chairman Michael Saylor. They expect Bitcoin to reach million-dollar prices per coin in the long run thanks to widespread adoption and an anti-inflationary system design. Moreover, they expect the price to skyrocket pretty quickly based on the halving and spot-price ETF developments.

这就是 Ark Invest 的 Cathie Wood 和 MicroStrategy（纳斯达克股票代码：MSTR）董事长 Michael Saylor 等现有百万富翁的做法。他们预计，由于广泛采用和抗通胀系统设计，从长远来看，比特币的价格将达到百万美元。此外，根据减半和现货 ETF 的发展，他们预计价格将很快飙升。

Wood, for example, thinks the cryptocurrency could reach $3.8 billion per coin in 2030. That target works out to Bitcoin doubling in price every year for six years, on average. The road to that plateau surely won't be smooth, given the cyclical nature of Bitcoin halvings and of cryptocurrency prices in general. But let's say you agree that Bitcoin should double in price over a certain time span. The easy way to a million-dollar investment would be to start with $500,000 and let the market forces play out.

例如，Wood 认为，到 2030 年，加密货币的单枚价值可能会达到 38 亿美元。这一目标将使比特币的价格在六年内平均每年翻一番。考虑到比特币减半和加密货币价格总体的周期性，通向这一平台的道路肯定不会一帆风顺。但假设您同意比特币的价格在一定时间内应该翻倍。获得百万美元投资的简单方法是从 50 万美元开始，让市场力量发挥作用。

While this strategy carries less risk than the first scenario, it still demands a keen understanding of the market and the ability to time your entries and exits effectively. And it also requires a large original investment. The math is very simple: A bigger bet can reach your lofty return target with a smaller gain.

虽然这种策略的风险比第一种情况要小，但它仍然需要对市场有敏锐的了解，并能够有效地把握入场和退出时机。而且还需要大量的原始投资。数学很简单：更大的赌注可以以更小的收益达到您的崇高回报目标。

3. Take a long-term approach, patiently adding to your Bitcoin investment for years

3.采取长期策略，多年耐心地增加你的比特币投资

The third and most prudent path is to gradually build your Bitcoin holdings over an extended period, as part of a diversified investment portfolio. By consistently adding to your position and allowing your investment to compound over time, you can potentially achieve life-changing wealth without exposing yourself to excessive volatility.

第三种也是最谨慎的途径是在较长时间内逐步增加比特币持有量，作为多元化投资组合的一部分。通过不断增加您的头寸并让您的投资随着时间的推移实现复利，您有可能获得改变生活的财富，而无需让自己面临过度的波动。

So maybe Cathie Wood's analysis makes sense but you're happy to wait until 2030. In that case, buying 26% of a Bitcoin today should get the job done at a total cost of $17,400.

因此，也许 Cathie Wood 的分析是有道理的，但你很乐意等到 2030 年。在这种情况下，今天购买 26% 的比特币应该可以以 17,400 美元的总成本完成这项工作。

You might prefer Michael Saylor's more long-term analysis. His base scenario involves Bitcoin prices soaring to $13 million by the year 2045. The digital currency would then be worth about $280 trillion and hold 7% of the global wealth. With this target, you could invest $515 in one-thirteenth of a Bitcoin today and wait for 21 years. The average annual rate of return is a princely 29% in this case -- still outlandishly high but much lower than doubling each year.

您可能更喜欢迈克尔·塞勒的更长期的分析。他的基本设想是，到 2045 年，比特币价格将飙升至 1300 万美元。届时，这种数字货币的价值将达到约 280 万亿美元，占全球财富的 7%。有了这个目标，你今天可以投资 515 美元购买十分之一的比特币，然后等待 21 年。在这种情况下，平均年回报率为 29%——仍然高得离谱，但远低于每年翻倍的水平。

Again, the math is simple. The longer you can stay invested in a winning asset, the larger your final return should be.

同样，数学很简单。您对获胜资产的投资时间越长，您的最终回报就应该越大。

Caveats

注意事项

Of course, there are many caveats to all of my forward-looking projections.

当然，我的所有前瞻性预测都有很多警告。

I'm assuming that the cryptocurrency market as a whole should gain value over time, and that Bitcoin will stay in the vanguard.

我假设整个加密货币市场应该随着时间的推移而增值，而比特币将保持领先地位。

Alternative wealth management coins or entirely different digital money solutions won't kick Bitcoin off the throne.

替代性财富管理硬币或完全不同的数字货币解决方案不会将比特币从王位上赶下来。

Progress in artificial intelligence and quantum

人工智能和量子的进展