比特幣Mayer多個Z分數仍在其平均值之下

一個量子已經指出，與過去的趨勢相比，梅爾多倍如何表明比特幣仍然沒有過熱103,000美元。

A quant has pointed out how the Mayer Multiple could suggest Bitcoin is still not overheated at $103,000 when compared to past trends.

一個量子指出，與過去的趨勢相比，梅耶多個多次如何表明比特幣仍未以103,000美元的價格過熱。

Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Z-Score Is Still Under Its Mean

比特幣Mayer多個Z分數仍在其平均值之下

比特幣Mayer多個Z分數仍在其平均值之下

As shared by the analyst on X, the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Z-Score is still in negative territory. The zero level corresponds to the all-time mean of the indicator. As such, a negative value like the current one suggests the metric is less than the average over history.

正如分析師在X上共享的那樣，比特幣Mayer多個Z得分仍處於負面狀態。零級對應於指標的歷史平均值。因此，像當前的負值表明度量值小於歷史上的平均值。

According to the quant, 53% of all days have seen the ratio be greater than the latest level.

根據量化的數據，所有天數中有53％的比率大於最新水平。

"Perhaps surprisingly given the price, BTC remains relatively "cool" at $103,000. Only 53% of days have seen the ratio be greater than the current level (i.e., the Z-Score is less than zero). It might feel hot, but relatively speaking it’s not yet that warm, at least in the context of the full market cycle."

“也許出乎意料的是，鑑於價格，BTC仍然相對“涼爽”，為103,000美元。只有53％的天比率比當前水平高（即，Z得分小於零）。它可能會感到很熱，但相對而言，它尚未如此溫暖，至少在整個市場週期的背景下。”

The Mayer Multiple is an indicator that follows the ratio between the Bitcoin price and its 200-day moving average (MA). The 200-day MA is a level that’s generally considered as an important boundary between macro bullish and bearish trends in the coin, so it can be useful to know how far the asset is from this line.

Mayer多倍的指標遵循比特幣價格與其200天移動平均線（MA）之間的比率。 200天的MA是一個通常被認為是硬幣中的宏觀看漲和看跌趨勢之間的重要邊界，因此知道資產離該線路有多遠是有用的。

The chart below shows the price movements of Bitcoin and the 200-day MA over the last few years. As is visible in the top graph, the cryptocurrency's price touched the 200-day MA during the earlier market downturn, but with the latest recovery run, it has broken back above the line. However, it would seem that the asset hasn's gains over the level aren't too large yet, at least in historical context.

下圖顯示了過去幾年比特幣和200天MA的價格變動。正如頂部圖中可見的那樣，加密貨幣的價格觸及了較早的市場下滑期間的200天MA，但是隨著最新的恢復運行，它已經落後於線上。但是，似乎至少在歷史背景下，資產似乎還不算太大。

As the bottom graph shows, the Mayer Multiple Z-Score is still in negative territory. The zero level corresponds to the all-time mean of the indicator. As such, a negative value like the current one suggests the Multiple is less than the average over history.

如下圖所示，Mayer多個Z分數仍處於負區域。零級對應於指標的歷史平均值。因此，像當前的負值表明倍數小於歷史上的平均值。

The Z-Score is an oscillator that keeps track of how much deviation an indicator has from its mean value. In the case of the Mayer Multiple Z-Score, a reading of -1 or less than -1 would imply that the Multiple is at least one standard deviation below its mean.

Z分數是一個振盪器，可以跟踪指標與平均值的偏差程度。在Mayer多個Z分數的情況下，讀數為-1或小於-1，這意味著多個倍數至少低於其平均值一個標準偏差。

The chart shared by the quant shows the Z-Score is at around -0.5, which corresponds to a smaller deviation from the average.

量子共享的圖表顯示，z得分約為-0.5，對應於平均值較小。

In the current cycle, the Multiple has been greater than its mean on a few occasions already, with the largest separation occurring in the rally from Q1 2024, where the Z-Score surged above the level corresponding to a standard deviation of 1. However, it seems the indicator never reached a deviation of two standard deviations from the mean in this cycle yet.

在當前循環中，多個已經在幾次場合中大於其平均值，從第1季度的第1季度出現在拉力賽中，z得分飆升到以上與1標準偏差相對應的水平以上。但是，似乎指標從未達到兩個標準偏差與此週期中兩個標準偏差的偏差。

During the bull run from the first half of 2021, the indicator saw even greater heating, briefly exceeding a standard deviation of three from the mean, levels that weren't reached in the previous cycle. It now remains to be seen whether the indicator would heat up to similar levels in this cycle as well or not.

在公牛奔跑期間，從2021年上半年開始，該指標的加熱甚至更大，短暫超過了三個平均值的標準偏差，而在上一個週期中未達到的水平。現在，在此週期中，指標是否也會加熱到相似的水平還有待觀察。