比特币Mayer多个Z分数仍在其平均值之下

一个量子已经指出，与过去的趋势相比，梅尔多倍如何表明比特币仍然没有过热103,000美元。

A quant has pointed out how the Mayer Multiple could suggest Bitcoin is still not overheated at $103,000 when compared to past trends.

一个量子指出，与过去的趋势相比，梅耶多个多次如何表明比特币仍未以103,000美元的价格过热。

Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Z-Score Is Still Under Its Mean

比特币Mayer多个Z分数仍在其平均值之下

比特币Mayer多个Z分数仍在其平均值之下

As shared by the analyst on X, the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Z-Score is still in negative territory. The zero level corresponds to the all-time mean of the indicator. As such, a negative value like the current one suggests the metric is less than the average over history.

正如分析师在X上共享的那样，比特币Mayer多个Z得分仍处于负面状态。零级对应于指标的历史平均值。因此，像当前的负值表明度量值小于历史上的平均值。

According to the quant, 53% of all days have seen the ratio be greater than the latest level.

根据量化的数据，所有天数中有53％的比率大于最新水平。

"Perhaps surprisingly given the price, BTC remains relatively "cool" at $103,000. Only 53% of days have seen the ratio be greater than the current level (i.e., the Z-Score is less than zero). It might feel hot, but relatively speaking it’s not yet that warm, at least in the context of the full market cycle."

“也许出乎意料的是，鉴于价格，BTC仍然相对“凉爽”，为103,000美元。只有53％的天比率比当前水平高（即，Z得分小于零）。它可能会感到很热，但相对而言，它尚未如此温暖，至少在整个市场周期的背景下。”

The Mayer Multiple is an indicator that follows the ratio between the Bitcoin price and its 200-day moving average (MA). The 200-day MA is a level that’s generally considered as an important boundary between macro bullish and bearish trends in the coin, so it can be useful to know how far the asset is from this line.

Mayer多倍的指标遵循比特币价格与其200天移动平均线（MA）之间的比率。 200天的MA是一个通常被认为是硬币中的宏观看涨和看跌趋势之间的重要边界，因此知道资产离该线路有多远是有用的。

The chart below shows the price movements of Bitcoin and the 200-day MA over the last few years. As is visible in the top graph, the cryptocurrency's price touched the 200-day MA during the earlier market downturn, but with the latest recovery run, it has broken back above the line. However, it would seem that the asset hasn's gains over the level aren't too large yet, at least in historical context.

下图显示了过去几年比特币和200天MA的价格变动。正如顶部图中可见的那样，加密货币的价格触及了较早的市场下滑期间的200天MA，但是随着最新的恢复运行，它已经落后于线上。但是，似乎至少在历史背景下，资产似乎还不算太大。

As the bottom graph shows, the Mayer Multiple Z-Score is still in negative territory. The zero level corresponds to the all-time mean of the indicator. As such, a negative value like the current one suggests the Multiple is less than the average over history.

如下图所示，Mayer多个Z分数仍处于负区域。零级对应于指标的历史平均值。因此，像当前的负值表明倍数小于历史上的平均值。

The Z-Score is an oscillator that keeps track of how much deviation an indicator has from its mean value. In the case of the Mayer Multiple Z-Score, a reading of -1 or less than -1 would imply that the Multiple is at least one standard deviation below its mean.

Z分数是一个振荡器，可以跟踪指标与平均值的偏差程度。在Mayer多个Z分数的情况下，读数为-1或小于-1，这意味着多个倍数至少低于其平均值一个标准偏差。

The chart shared by the quant shows the Z-Score is at around -0.5, which corresponds to a smaller deviation from the average.

量子共享的图表显示，z得分约为-0.5，对应于平均值较小。

In the current cycle, the Multiple has been greater than its mean on a few occasions already, with the largest separation occurring in the rally from Q1 2024, where the Z-Score surged above the level corresponding to a standard deviation of 1. However, it seems the indicator never reached a deviation of two standard deviations from the mean in this cycle yet.

在当前循环中，多个已经在几次场合中大于其平均值，从第1季度的第1季度出现在拉力赛中，z得分飙升到以上与1标准偏差相对应的水平以上。但是，似乎指标从未达到两个标准偏差与此周期中两个标准偏差的偏差。

During the bull run from the first half of 2021, the indicator saw even greater heating, briefly exceeding a standard deviation of three from the mean, levels that weren't reached in the previous cycle. It now remains to be seen whether the indicator would heat up to similar levels in this cycle as well or not.

在公牛奔跑期间，从2021年上半年开始，该指标的加热甚至更大，短暂超过了三个平均值的标准偏差，而在上一个周期中未达到的水平。现在，在此周期中，指标是否也会加热到相似的水平还有待观察。