比特幣的宏觀聯繫：分析師認為區間突破，但時間軸上有所不同

比特幣與宏觀經濟事件（包括聯準會利率決策）的相關性已經增強。分析師預測，市場將突破目前盤整區間，其中一些根據全球流動性預測預計到 2024 年 10 月，而另一些人則根據黃金比例乘數等技術指標預計到第二季末。

Bitcoin's Macro Sensitivities: Analysts Foresee Range Breakout, Diverge on Timing

比特幣的宏觀敏感度：分析師預測區間突破，但時機存在分歧

In a striking departure from its previous status as a renegade digital asset, Bitcoin (BTC) now displays a strong correlation to macroeconomic events, particularly the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Analysts are unanimous in their belief that a breakout from the current trading range is imminent, but their estimates for the timing of this event vary significantly.

比特幣（BTC）與其之前作為一種叛逆的數位資產的地位截然不同，現在它與宏觀經濟事件，特別是聯準會的利率決策，表現出很強的相關性。分析師一致認為，突破當前交易區間即將到來，但他們對這事件發生時間的估計卻有很大差異。

Macroeconomic Impacts on Bitcoin's Trajectory

宏觀經濟對比特幣軌跡的影響

The recent release of lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data sparked a surge in Bitcoin's price, exemplifying the asset's sensitivity to macro events. Rob Hadick, General Partner at Dragonfly, a crypto-venture capital firm, aptly characterized Bitcoin as a "macro asset," aligning its movements with market liquidity.

最近發布的低於預期的美國通膨數據引發了比特幣價格的飆升，體現了該資產對宏觀事件的敏感性。加密風險投資公司 Dragonfly 的普通合夥人 Rob Hadick 恰當地將比特幣描述為“宏觀資產”，使其趨勢與市場流動性保持一致。

According to Hadick, any factor affecting liquidity, such as quantitative easing, balance sheet reductions, or Fed rate decisions, will trigger a response in the Bitcoin market.

哈迪克認為，任何影響流動性的因素，例如量化寬鬆、資產負債表縮減或聯準會利率決定，都會引發比特幣市場的反應。

Will Improved Macro Conditions Lift Bitcoin in 2024?

宏觀環境的改善會在 2024 年提振比特幣嗎？

Analysis by CoinShares suggests that Bitcoin's correlation with macro events, especially Fed rate decisions, has intensified since the decline in inflows into new U.S. spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Sluggish market liquidity has been cited as a reason for Bitcoin's recent price stagnation.

CoinShares 的分析表明，自流入美國新現貨 BTC 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的資金減少以來，比特幣與宏觀事件（尤其是聯準會利率決定）的相關性已經增強。市場流動性低迷被認為是比特幣近期價格停滯的原因。

Analysts' Predictions for a Range Breakout

分析師對區間突破的預測

Despite the consensus on an impending range breakout, analysts differ on the timeframe for this event. Crypto-analyst Willy Woo projects a breakout by October 2024, basing his prediction on global liquidity trends.

儘管人們一致認為即將出現區間突破，但分析師對此事件的時間表存在分歧。加密貨幣分析師 Willy Woo 根據全球流動性趨勢做出預測，預計到 2024 年 10 月將會出現突破。

"Global liquidity forming a bullish ascending triangle. Expected breakout before Oct 2024," Woo stated.

「全球流動性形成看漲上升三角形。預計在 2024 年 10 月之前突破，」Woo 表示。

Mike Novogratz, Founder of Galaxy Digital, anticipates a breakout by the end of the second quarter of 2023. Philip Swift, founder of Look Into Bitcoin, utilizes the Golden Ratio Multiplier (GR Multiplier) to predict a potential doubling or tripling of Bitcoin's current value.

Galaxy Digital 創辦人 Mike Novogratz 預計到 2023 年第二季末將出現突破。

The Implications of the Adoption Phase

採用階段的影響

Swift's GR Multiplier analysis suggests that Bitcoin's adoption phase is drawing to a close, which coincides with the recent introduction of Bitcoin ETFs. This suggests that Bitcoin is transitioning into a more mature phase, where it will become more integrated into the global financial system.

Swift 的 GR 乘數分析表明，比特幣的採用階段即將結束，這與最近推出的比特幣 ETF 相符。這表明比特幣正在過渡到一個更成熟的階段，它將更融入全球金融體系。

Short-Term Price Action

短期價格行為

In the short term, Bitcoin could target the upper boundary of the current trading range at $71,000, buoyed by a shift in market sentiment towards bullishness.

短期內，受市場情緒轉向看漲的提振，比特幣可能會瞄準當前交易區間的上限 71,000 美元。

Conclusion

結論

Analysts expect Bitcoin to break out of its current trading range and continue its upward trajectory, but they differ in their predictions for the timing of this event. While some foresee a breakout in the near term, others anticipate a longer duration of consolidation. Bitcoin's macro sensitivities and the end of its adoption phase will likely play a significant role in shaping its price movements in the coming months and years.

分析師預計比特幣將突破當前交易區間並繼續其上漲軌跡，但他們對這一事件發生時間的預測存在分歧。雖然有些人預計短期內會出現突破，但有些人則預期盤整持續時間較長。比特幣的宏觀敏感性及其採用階段的結束可能會在未來幾個月和幾年的價格走勢中發揮重要作用。