比特币的宏观联系：分析师认为区间突破，但时间轴上有所不同

比特币与宏观经济事件（包括美联储利率决策）的相关性已经增强。分析师预测，市场将突破当前盘整区间，其中一些人根据全球流动性预测预计到 2024 年 10 月，而另一些人则根据黄金比例乘数等技术指标预计到第二季度末。

Bitcoin's Macro Sensitivities: Analysts Foresee Range Breakout, Diverge on Timing

比特币的宏观敏感性：分析师预测区间突破，但时机存在分歧

In a striking departure from its previous status as a renegade digital asset, Bitcoin (BTC) now displays a strong correlation to macroeconomic events, particularly the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Analysts are unanimous in their belief that a breakout from the current trading range is imminent, but their estimates for the timing of this event vary significantly.

比特币（BTC）与其之前作为一种叛逆的数字资产的地位截然不同，现在它与宏观经济事件，特别是美联储的利率决策，表现出很强的相关性。分析师一致认为，突破当前交易区间即将到来，但他们对这一事件发生时间的估计却存在很大差异。

Macroeconomic Impacts on Bitcoin's Trajectory

宏观经济对比特币轨迹的影响

The recent release of lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data sparked a surge in Bitcoin's price, exemplifying the asset's sensitivity to macro events. Rob Hadick, General Partner at Dragonfly, a crypto-venture capital firm, aptly characterized Bitcoin as a "macro asset," aligning its movements with market liquidity.

最近发布的低于预期的美国通胀数据引发了比特币价格的飙升，体现了该资产对宏观事件的敏感性。加密风险投资公司 Dragonfly 的普通合伙人 Rob Hadick 恰当地将比特币描述为“宏观资产”，使其走势与市场流动性保持一致。

According to Hadick, any factor affecting liquidity, such as quantitative easing, balance sheet reductions, or Fed rate decisions, will trigger a response in the Bitcoin market.

哈迪克认为，任何影响流动性的因素，例如量化宽松、资产负债表缩减或美联储利率决定，都会引发比特币市场的反应。

Will Improved Macro Conditions Lift Bitcoin in 2024?

宏观环境的改善会在 2024 年提振比特币吗？

Analysis by CoinShares suggests that Bitcoin's correlation with macro events, especially Fed rate decisions, has intensified since the decline in inflows into new U.S. spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Sluggish market liquidity has been cited as a reason for Bitcoin's recent price stagnation.

CoinShares 的分析表明，自流入美国新现货 BTC 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的资金减少以来，比特币与宏观事件（尤其是美联储利率决定）的相关性已经增强。市场流动性低迷被认为是比特币近期价格停滞的原因。

Analysts' Predictions for a Range Breakout

分析师对区间突破的预测

Despite the consensus on an impending range breakout, analysts differ on the timeframe for this event. Crypto-analyst Willy Woo projects a breakout by October 2024, basing his prediction on global liquidity trends.

尽管人们一致认为即将出现区间突破，但分析师对这一事件的时间表存在分歧。加密货币分析师 Willy Woo 根据全球流动性趋势做出预测，预计到 2024 年 10 月将会出现突破。

"Global liquidity forming a bullish ascending triangle. Expected breakout before Oct 2024," Woo stated.

“全球流动性形成看涨上升三角形。预计在 2024 年 10 月之前突破，”Woo 表示。

Mike Novogratz, Founder of Galaxy Digital, anticipates a breakout by the end of the second quarter of 2023. Philip Swift, founder of Look Into Bitcoin, utilizes the Golden Ratio Multiplier (GR Multiplier) to predict a potential doubling or tripling of Bitcoin's current value.

Galaxy Digital 创始人 Mike Novogratz 预计到 2023 年第二季度末将出现突破。Look Into Bitcoin 创始人 Philip Swift 利用黄金比例乘数 (GR Multiplier) 预测比特币当前价值可能会增加一倍或三倍。

The Implications of the Adoption Phase

采用阶段的影响

Swift's GR Multiplier analysis suggests that Bitcoin's adoption phase is drawing to a close, which coincides with the recent introduction of Bitcoin ETFs. This suggests that Bitcoin is transitioning into a more mature phase, where it will become more integrated into the global financial system.

Swift 的 GR 乘数分析表明，比特币的采用阶段即将结束，这与最近推出的比特币 ETF 相吻合。这表明比特币正在过渡到一个更成熟的阶段，它将更加融入全球金融体系。

Short-Term Price Action

短期价格行为

In the short term, Bitcoin could target the upper boundary of the current trading range at $71,000, buoyed by a shift in market sentiment towards bullishness.

短期内，受市场情绪转向看涨的提振，比特币可能会瞄准当前交易区间的上限 71,000 美元。

Conclusion

结论

Analysts expect Bitcoin to break out of its current trading range and continue its upward trajectory, but they differ in their predictions for the timing of this event. While some foresee a breakout in the near term, others anticipate a longer duration of consolidation. Bitcoin's macro sensitivities and the end of its adoption phase will likely play a significant role in shaping its price movements in the coming months and years.

分析师预计比特币将突破当前交易区间并继续其上涨轨迹，但他们对这一事件发生时间的预测存在分歧。虽然一些人预计短期内会出现突破，但另一些人则预计盘整持续时间较长。比特币的宏观敏感性及其采用阶段的结束可能会在未来几个月和几年的价格走势中发挥重要作用。