比特幣的$ 10萬美元里程碑會引發另一個拋售嗎？

在本BTC價格預測文章中探索過去的趨勢，當前的市場信號和Altcoin的影響。保持關鍵交易見解的準備。

Bitcoin (BTC) has been making headlines recently as it approaches the crucial psychological milestone of $100,000. Having briefly touched this level in late 2024, the flagship cryptocurrency experienced a sharp sell-off, sparking discussion about what could happen when this price is reached again.

比特幣（BTC）最近一直在成為頭條新聞，因為它接近了100,000美元的關鍵心理里程碑。旗艦加密貨幣在2024年底短暫觸及了這個水平後，出現了急劇的拋售，引發了關於再次達到這個價格時可能發生的事情的討論。

As the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin’s price movements often have a significant impact on the broader digital asset market, especially on altcoins, which tend to follow Bitcoin’s price action, usually amplifying its movements.

作為領先的加密貨幣，比特幣的價格變動通常會對更廣泛的數字資產市場產生重大影響，尤其是對AltCoins的傾向，這些山幣通常會遵循比特幣的價格行動，通常會放大其運動。

This correlation is driven by several factors, including market psychology, capital flows, and the relative liquidity of different cryptocurrencies. For example, when Bitcoin experienced a surge to $100,000 in late 2024, major altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) also rallied, albeit at a slower pace.

這種相關性是由幾個因素驅動的，包括市場心理學，資本流和不同加密貨幣的相對流動性。例如，當比特幣在2024年末經歷了一筆高漲至100,000美元時，儘管以較慢的速度，例如以太坊（ETH）和Solana（Sol）（Solana）（Solana）（Solana（Sol））也會集結。

However, as Bitcoin faced a steeper correction from this price point, altcoins were sold off more sharply due to liquidity constraints and traders booking profits.

但是，隨著比特幣從這個價格點面臨更陡峭的糾正，由於流動性限制和貿易商預訂利潤，AltCoins的出售更加急劇。

This dynamic is crucial for traders to understand, especially in the context of Bitcoin’s sustained rally throughout 2024 and 2025. As Bitcoin encountered resistance at $100,000, sparking a 10-15% sell-off, it also triggered broader weakness in the altcoin market.

這種動態對於交易者來說是至關重要的，尤其是在比特幣在整個2024年和2025年的持續集會的背景下。由於比特幣以100,000美元的價格遇到阻力，這引發了10-15％的拋售，因此它也引發了替代幣市場的更廣泛的弱點。

Bitcoin faces key resistance

比特幣面對關鍵阻力

Historically, Bitcoin has encountered significant resistance at major psychological price levels. Earlier milestones, like $10,000 in 2017 and $50,000 in 2021, saw similar instances of surges being met with subsequent pullbacks as market sentiment shifted.

從歷史上看，比特幣在主要的心理價格水平上遇到了顯著的抵抗力。較早的里程碑，例如2017年的10,000美元和2021年的50,000美元，隨著市場情緒的轉移，類似的潮流遇到了類似的潮流情況。

After reaching a high of $103,000 in November 2024, Bitcoin experienced a 12% correction, aligning with technical analysis predictions from industry figures like Ben Armstrong, who anticipated a 10-15% sell-off from the $100,000 level.

在2024年11月達到103,000美元的高價後，比特幣經歷了12％的糾正，與本·阿姆斯特朗（Ben Armstrong）等行業人物的技術分析預測保持一致，後者預計從100,000美元的水平中售出了10-15％的售罄。

What will happen when BTC hits $100k?

當BTC售價10萬美元時會發生什麼？

In the latter half of 2024, as Bitcoin rallied from the $80,000 range to $100,000, there was a massive spike in trading volume, and leverage in derivatives markets went through the roof, showcasing the speculative fervor at the time.

在2024年後半段，隨著比特幣從80,000美元的範圍匯聚到100,000美元，交易量的高漲，衍生品市場的槓桿作用遍布屋頂，當時展示了投機性的熱情。

On-chain data also showed increased activity from large Bitcoin wallets, commonly known as "whales," transferring funds to exchanges, which could be a sign of potential selling pressure.

鏈上數據還顯示，大型比特幣錢包的活動增加，通常稱為“鯨魚”，將資金轉移到交換中，這可能是潛在銷售壓力的跡象。

Moreover, at the time, FastOptical, a well-known crypto analyst, mentioned that there will be a huge sell wall at $100,000, which is evident in ChainStatsPro's market depth and order books snapshot. However, not every leg up was met with a dump.

此外，當時，著名的加密分析師Fastptility提到，將有100,000美元的巨大銷售牆，這在Chainstatspro的市場深度和訂購書籍快照中很明顯。但是，並非每條腿都被垃圾場遇到。

For instance, in the third quarter of 2024, Bitcoin experienced several weeks of consolidation around the $95,000 level without a major correction. This was supported by strong institutional buying activity, evidenced by persistent inflows into crypto ETFs and other investment products.

例如，在2024年的第三季度，比特幣在$ 95,000的水平上經歷了數週的合併，而沒有進行重大更正。這得到了強大的機構購買活動的支持，這是由加密ETF和其他投資產品的持續流入所證明的。

The key differentiator appears to be the broader market conditions. When there is overheated market sentiment—high funding rates on derivatives exchanges, excessive leverage in the market, and a strong presence of short-term traders—it often precedes a sell-off.

關鍵區別似乎是更廣泛的市場條件。當市場情緒過熱時（衍生品交易所的高資金率，市場過多的槓桿作用以及短期交易者的強大存在）通常是在拋售之前。

On the other hand, when there is sustained institutional accumulation, it helps mitigate the impact of traders booking profits, especially during Bitcoin's approaches to key psychological milestones.

另一方面，當機構積累持續積累時，它有助於減輕貿易商預訂利潤的影響，尤其是在比特幣的關鍵心理里程碑的方法中。

As of May 2025, with Bitcoin's price still hovering around the $98,000 level, there is low leverage in the market, and the broader market sentiment is relatively balanced. This suggests that a breakout above $100,000 could be on the cards. However, it's crucial for traders to be prepared for the possibility of sudden shifts in market trends.

截至2025年5月，由於比特幣的價格仍在$ 98,000的水平左右，市場上的槓桿率很低，而且更廣泛的市場情緒相對平衡。這表明可能會出現超過100,000美元的突破。但是，對於交易者來說，為突然發生市場趨勢變化的可能性做好準備至關重要。

Is the bull market over?

牛市結束了嗎？

Earlier this year, crypto trader "CRYPTO_MOMO_" pointed out that Bitcoin encountered strong resistance at the $50,000-$52,000 range during previous bull cycles.

今年早些時候，加密貨幣交易員“ Crypto_momo_”指出，比特幣在以前的公牛週期中遇到了強大的阻力，價格為50,000-52,000美元。

This time, as Bitcoin approaches the $100,000 resistance, it's encountering weaker defense, which could indicate a continuation of the bull market. Additionally, lower timeframes are showing signs of bullish divergence, further suggesting that a rally is in the works.

這次，隨著比特幣接近100,000美元的電阻，它遇到了較弱的防禦，這可能表明牛市的延續。此外，較低的時間框架顯示了看漲差異的跡象，進一步表明集會正在進行中。

Furthermore, if Bitcoin manages to close a monthly candle above $95,000, it could set the stage for another leg up to $110,000-$115,000. A breakthrough above $100,000 would also pave the way for a rally towards the $120,000-$125,000 zone.

此外，如果比特幣設法關閉每月的蠟燭以上95,000美元以上，它可能會為另一支腿奠定高達110,000- $ 115,000的舞台。超過$ 100,000的突破也將為$ 120,000- $ 125,000的區域鋪平道路。