比特币的$ 10万美元里程碑会引发另一个抛售吗？

在本BTC价格预测文章中探索过去的趋势，当前的市场信号和Altcoin的影响。保持关键交易见解的准备。

Bitcoin (BTC) has been making headlines recently as it approaches the crucial psychological milestone of $100,000. Having briefly touched this level in late 2024, the flagship cryptocurrency experienced a sharp sell-off, sparking discussion about what could happen when this price is reached again.

比特币（BTC）最近一直在成为头条新闻，因为它接近了100,000美元的关键心理里程碑。旗舰加密货币在2024年底短暂触及了这个水平后，出现了急剧的抛售，引发了关于再次达到这个价格时可能发生的事情的讨论。

As the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin’s price movements often have a significant impact on the broader digital asset market, especially on altcoins, which tend to follow Bitcoin’s price action, usually amplifying its movements.

作为领先的加密货币，比特币的价格变动通常会对更广泛的数字资产市场产生重大影响，尤其是对AltCoins的倾向，这些山币通常会遵循比特币的价格行动，通常会放大其运动。

This correlation is driven by several factors, including market psychology, capital flows, and the relative liquidity of different cryptocurrencies. For example, when Bitcoin experienced a surge to $100,000 in late 2024, major altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) also rallied, albeit at a slower pace.

这种相关性是由几个因素驱动的，包括市场心理学，资本流和不同加密货币的相对流动性。例如，当比特币在2024年末经历了一笔高涨至100,000美元时，尽管以较慢的速度，例如以太坊（ETH）和Solana（Sol）（Solana）（Solana）（Solana（Sol））也会集结。

However, as Bitcoin faced a steeper correction from this price point, altcoins were sold off more sharply due to liquidity constraints and traders booking profits.

但是，随着比特币从这个价格点面临更陡峭的纠正，由于流动性限制和贸易商预订利润，AltCoins的出售更加急剧。

This dynamic is crucial for traders to understand, especially in the context of Bitcoin’s sustained rally throughout 2024 and 2025. As Bitcoin encountered resistance at $100,000, sparking a 10-15% sell-off, it also triggered broader weakness in the altcoin market.

这种动态对于交易者来说是至关重要的，尤其是在比特币在整个2024年和2025年的持续集会的背景下。由于比特币以100,000美元的价格遇到阻力，这引发了10-15％的抛售，因此它也引发了替代币市场的更广泛的弱点。

Bitcoin faces key resistance

比特币面对关键阻力

Historically, Bitcoin has encountered significant resistance at major psychological price levels. Earlier milestones, like $10,000 in 2017 and $50,000 in 2021, saw similar instances of surges being met with subsequent pullbacks as market sentiment shifted.

从历史上看，比特币在主要的心理价格水平上遇到了显着的抵抗力。较早的里程碑，例如2017年的10,000美元和2021年的50,000美元，随着市场情绪的转移，类似的潮流遇到了类似的潮流情况。

After reaching a high of $103,000 in November 2024, Bitcoin experienced a 12% correction, aligning with technical analysis predictions from industry figures like Ben Armstrong, who anticipated a 10-15% sell-off from the $100,000 level.

在2024年11月达到103,000美元的高价后，比特币经历了12％的纠正，与本·阿姆斯特朗（Ben Armstrong）等行业人物的技术分析预测保持一致，后者预计从100,000美元的水平中售出了10-15％的售罄。

What will happen when BTC hits $100k?

当BTC售价10万美元时会发生什么？

In the latter half of 2024, as Bitcoin rallied from the $80,000 range to $100,000, there was a massive spike in trading volume, and leverage in derivatives markets went through the roof, showcasing the speculative fervor at the time.

在2024年后半段，随着比特币从80,000美元的范围汇聚到100,000美元，交易量的高涨，衍生品市场的杠杆作用遍布屋顶，当时展示了投机性的热情。

On-chain data also showed increased activity from large Bitcoin wallets, commonly known as "whales," transferring funds to exchanges, which could be a sign of potential selling pressure.

链上数据还显示，大型比特币钱包的活动增加，通常称为“鲸鱼”，将资金转移到交换中，这可能是潜在销售压力的迹象。

Moreover, at the time, FastOptical, a well-known crypto analyst, mentioned that there will be a huge sell wall at $100,000, which is evident in ChainStatsPro's market depth and order books snapshot. However, not every leg up was met with a dump.

此外，当时，著名的加密分析师Fastptility提到，将有100,000美元的巨大销售墙，这在Chainstatspro的市场深度和订购书籍快照中很明显。但是，并非每条腿都被垃圾场遇到。

For instance, in the third quarter of 2024, Bitcoin experienced several weeks of consolidation around the $95,000 level without a major correction. This was supported by strong institutional buying activity, evidenced by persistent inflows into crypto ETFs and other investment products.

例如，在2024年的第三季度，比特币在$ 95,000的水平上经历了数周的合并，而没有进行重大更正。这得到了强大的机构购买活动的支持，这是由加密ETF和其他投资产品的持续流入所证明的。

The key differentiator appears to be the broader market conditions. When there is overheated market sentiment—high funding rates on derivatives exchanges, excessive leverage in the market, and a strong presence of short-term traders—it often precedes a sell-off.

关键区别似乎是更广泛的市场条件。当市场情绪过热时（衍生品交易所的高资金率，市场过多的杠杆作用以及短期交易者的强大存在）通常是在抛售之前。

On the other hand, when there is sustained institutional accumulation, it helps mitigate the impact of traders booking profits, especially during Bitcoin's approaches to key psychological milestones.

另一方面，当机构积累持续积累时，它有助于减轻贸易商预订利润的影响，尤其是在比特币的关键心理里程碑的方法中。

As of May 2025, with Bitcoin's price still hovering around the $98,000 level, there is low leverage in the market, and the broader market sentiment is relatively balanced. This suggests that a breakout above $100,000 could be on the cards. However, it's crucial for traders to be prepared for the possibility of sudden shifts in market trends.

截至2025年5月，由于比特币的价格仍在$ 98,000的水平左右，市场上的杠杆率很低，而且更广泛的市场情绪相对平衡。这表明可能会出现超过100,000美元的突破。但是，对于交易者来说，为突然发生市场趋势变化的可能性做好准备至关重要。

Is the bull market over?

牛市结束了吗？

Earlier this year, crypto trader "CRYPTO_MOMO_" pointed out that Bitcoin encountered strong resistance at the $50,000-$52,000 range during previous bull cycles.

今年早些时候，加密货币交易员“ Crypto_momo_”指出，比特币在以前的公牛周期中遇到了强大的阻力，价格为50,000-52,000美元。

This time, as Bitcoin approaches the $100,000 resistance, it's encountering weaker defense, which could indicate a continuation of the bull market. Additionally, lower timeframes are showing signs of bullish divergence, further suggesting that a rally is in the works.

这次，随着比特币接近100,000美元的电阻，它遇到了较弱的防御，这可能表明牛市的延续。此外，较低的时间框架显示了看涨差异的迹象，进一步表明集会正在进行中。

Furthermore, if Bitcoin manages to close a monthly candle above $95,000, it could set the stage for another leg up to $110,000-$115,000. A breakthrough above $100,000 would also pave the way for a rally towards the $120,000-$125,000 zone.

此外，如果比特币设法关闭每月的蜡烛以上95,000美元以上，它可能会为另一支腿奠定高达110,000- $ 115,000的舞台。超过$ 100,000的突破也将为$ 120,000- $ 125,000的区域铺平道路。