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在本BTC价格预测文章中探索过去的趋势,当前的市场信号和Altcoin的影响。保持关键交易见解的准备。
Bitcoin (BTC) has been making headlines recently as it approaches the crucial psychological milestone of $100,000. Having briefly touched this level in late 2024, the flagship cryptocurrency experienced a sharp sell-off, sparking discussion about what could happen when this price is reached again.
比特币(BTC)最近一直在成为头条新闻,因为它接近了100,000美元的关键心理里程碑。旗舰加密货币在2024年底短暂触及了这个水平后,出现了急剧的抛售,引发了关于再次达到这个价格时可能发生的事情的讨论。
As the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin’s price movements often have a significant impact on the broader digital asset market, especially on altcoins, which tend to follow Bitcoin’s price action, usually amplifying its movements.
作为领先的加密货币,比特币的价格变动通常会对更广泛的数字资产市场产生重大影响,尤其是对AltCoins的倾向,这些山币通常会遵循比特币的价格行动,通常会放大其运动。
This correlation is driven by several factors, including market psychology, capital flows, and the relative liquidity of different cryptocurrencies. For example, when Bitcoin experienced a surge to $100,000 in late 2024, major altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) also rallied, albeit at a slower pace.
这种相关性是由几个因素驱动的,包括市场心理学,资本流和不同加密货币的相对流动性。例如,当比特币在2024年末经历了一笔高涨至100,000美元时,尽管以较慢的速度,例如以太坊(ETH)和Solana(Sol)(Solana)(Solana)(Solana(Sol))也会集结。
However, as Bitcoin faced a steeper correction from this price point, altcoins were sold off more sharply due to liquidity constraints and traders booking profits.
但是,随着比特币从这个价格点面临更陡峭的纠正,由于流动性限制和贸易商预订利润,AltCoins的出售更加急剧。
This dynamic is crucial for traders to understand, especially in the context of Bitcoin’s sustained rally throughout 2024 and 2025. As Bitcoin encountered resistance at $100,000, sparking a 10-15% sell-off, it also triggered broader weakness in the altcoin market.
这种动态对于交易者来说是至关重要的,尤其是在比特币在整个2024年和2025年的持续集会的背景下。由于比特币以100,000美元的价格遇到阻力,这引发了10-15%的抛售,因此它也引发了替代币市场的更广泛的弱点。
Bitcoin faces key resistance
比特币面对关键阻力
Historically, Bitcoin has encountered significant resistance at major psychological price levels. Earlier milestones, like $10,000 in 2017 and $50,000 in 2021, saw similar instances of surges being met with subsequent pullbacks as market sentiment shifted.
从历史上看,比特币在主要的心理价格水平上遇到了显着的抵抗力。较早的里程碑,例如2017年的10,000美元和2021年的50,000美元,随着市场情绪的转移,类似的潮流遇到了类似的潮流情况。
After reaching a high of $103,000 in November 2024, Bitcoin experienced a 12% correction, aligning with technical analysis predictions from industry figures like Ben Armstrong, who anticipated a 10-15% sell-off from the $100,000 level.
在2024年11月达到103,000美元的高价后,比特币经历了12%的纠正,与本·阿姆斯特朗(Ben Armstrong)等行业人物的技术分析预测保持一致,后者预计从100,000美元的水平中售出了10-15%的售罄。
What will happen when BTC hits $100k?
当BTC售价10万美元时会发生什么?
In the latter half of 2024, as Bitcoin rallied from the $80,000 range to $100,000, there was a massive spike in trading volume, and leverage in derivatives markets went through the roof, showcasing the speculative fervor at the time.
在2024年后半段,随着比特币从80,000美元的范围汇聚到100,000美元,交易量的高涨,衍生品市场的杠杆作用遍布屋顶,当时展示了投机性的热情。
On-chain data also showed increased activity from large Bitcoin wallets, commonly known as "whales," transferring funds to exchanges, which could be a sign of potential selling pressure.
链上数据还显示,大型比特币钱包的活动增加,通常称为“鲸鱼”,将资金转移到交换中,这可能是潜在销售压力的迹象。
Moreover, at the time, FastOptical, a well-known crypto analyst, mentioned that there will be a huge sell wall at $100,000, which is evident in ChainStatsPro's market depth and order books snapshot. However, not every leg up was met with a dump.
此外,当时,著名的加密分析师Fastptility提到,将有100,000美元的巨大销售墙,这在Chainstatspro的市场深度和订购书籍快照中很明显。但是,并非每条腿都被垃圾场遇到。
For instance, in the third quarter of 2024, Bitcoin experienced several weeks of consolidation around the $95,000 level without a major correction. This was supported by strong institutional buying activity, evidenced by persistent inflows into crypto ETFs and other investment products.
例如,在2024年的第三季度,比特币在$ 95,000的水平上经历了数周的合并,而没有进行重大更正。这得到了强大的机构购买活动的支持,这是由加密ETF和其他投资产品的持续流入所证明的。
The key differentiator appears to be the broader market conditions. When there is overheated market sentiment—high funding rates on derivatives exchanges, excessive leverage in the market, and a strong presence of short-term traders—it often precedes a sell-off.
关键区别似乎是更广泛的市场条件。当市场情绪过热时(衍生品交易所的高资金率,市场过多的杠杆作用以及短期交易者的强大存在)通常是在抛售之前。
On the other hand, when there is sustained institutional accumulation, it helps mitigate the impact of traders booking profits, especially during Bitcoin's approaches to key psychological milestones.
另一方面,当机构积累持续积累时,它有助于减轻贸易商预订利润的影响,尤其是在比特币的关键心理里程碑的方法中。
As of May 2025, with Bitcoin's price still hovering around the $98,000 level, there is low leverage in the market, and the broader market sentiment is relatively balanced. This suggests that a breakout above $100,000 could be on the cards. However, it's crucial for traders to be prepared for the possibility of sudden shifts in market trends.
截至2025年5月,由于比特币的价格仍在$ 98,000的水平左右,市场上的杠杆率很低,而且更广泛的市场情绪相对平衡。这表明可能会出现超过100,000美元的突破。但是,对于交易者来说,为突然发生市场趋势变化的可能性做好准备至关重要。
Is the bull market over?
牛市结束了吗?
Earlier this year, crypto trader "CRYPTO_MOMO_" pointed out that Bitcoin encountered strong resistance at the $50,000-$52,000 range during previous bull cycles.
今年早些时候,加密货币交易员“ Crypto_momo_”指出,比特币在以前的公牛周期中遇到了强大的阻力,价格为50,000-52,000美元。
This time, as Bitcoin approaches the $100,000 resistance, it's encountering weaker defense, which could indicate a continuation of the bull market. Additionally, lower timeframes are showing signs of bullish divergence, further suggesting that a rally is in the works.
这次,随着比特币接近100,000美元的电阻,它遇到了较弱的防御,这可能表明牛市的延续。此外,较低的时间框架显示了看涨差异的迹象,进一步表明集会正在进行中。
Furthermore, if Bitcoin manages to close a monthly candle above $95,000, it could set the stage for another leg up to $110,000-$115,000. A breakthrough above $100,000 would also pave the way for a rally towards the $120,000-$125,000 zone.
此外,如果比特币设法关闭每月的蜡烛以上95,000美元以上,它可能会为另一支腿奠定高达110,000- $ 115,000的舞台。超过$ 100,000的突破也将为$ 120,000- $ 125,000的区域铺平道路。
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