比特幣的流動性供應緊縮：我們要擠壓了嗎？

Fidelity預測到2032年，比特幣不當緊縮，可能會影響價格和市場動態。這對BTC的未來意味著什麼？

Bitcoin's future is looking tight, y'all. Fidelity is saying that if things keep going the way they are, over 8.3 million BTC—that's like, 42% of the circulating supply—could become "illiquid" by 2032. Buckle up, it's gonna be a ride.

比特幣的未來看起來很緊。富達說的是，如果事情不斷發展，超過830萬BTC（這就是循環供應的42％）可能會在2032年變得“流動性”。

The Great Bitcoin Lock-Up

偉大的比特幣鎖定

Fidelity dropped a report on Sept. 15, 2025, identifying two groups hoarding Bitcoin like there's no tomorrow: long-term holders who haven't touched their coins in at least seven years, and public companies stacking over 1,000 BTC each. These guys aren't selling anytime soon.

菲德利（Fidelity）於2025年9月15日放棄了一份報告，確定了兩組ho積比特幣，就像沒有明天：長期持有人至少在至少七年內沒有觸摸硬幣，而上市公司則堆積了1000多個BTC。這些傢伙並沒有很快賣出。

Source: Fidelity

資料來源：保真度

By Q2 2025, these entities could control over six million BTC, about 28% of the total supply. Fast forward to 2032, and we're talking 8.3 million BTC just chilling in cold storage. That's a lot of coins out of circulation.

到2025年第一季度，這些實體可以控制超過600萬BTC，約佔總供應量的28％。快進到2032年，我們談論的830萬BTC只是在冷藏中放鬆。這是很多貨幣中的很多硬幣。

The Whale Factor

鯨魚因子

Reduced liquid supply usually means upward price pressure. But, and it's a big but, what happens if these Bitcoin whales decide to cash out? Recent data shows Bitcoin whales offloaded nearly $12.7 billion in the last 30 days. That's the sharpest sell-off since mid-2022, dragging BTC down 2%.

液體供應減少通常意味著上價壓力。但是，這是一個很大的，但是如果這些比特幣鯨決定兌現，會發生什麼？最近的數據顯示，在過去30天內，比特幣鯨在載荷近127億美元。這是自2022年中以來最尖銳的拋售，將BTC拖入2％。

Short-Term Volatility vs. Long-Term HODL

短期波動率與長期HODL

Glassnode's weekly data indicates Bitcoin's rebound to $116,000 is facing resistance. Overbought RSI levels, rising profit-taking, and weakening conviction in spot markets hint at fragility. Futures markets remain active, but softer funding signals waning demand for leveraged longs.

GlassNode的每週數據表明，比特幣的反彈至116,000美元，正面臨著阻力。過多的RSI水平，利潤的上升以及現貨市場的信念削弱了脆弱性。期貨市場仍然活躍，但較軟的資金信號會減少對槓桿壽命的需求。

Is a Supply Crunch a Good Thing?

供應緊縮是一件好事嗎？

Here's my two cents: While a supply crunch could send Bitcoin prices soaring, it also raises questions about market stability. If a few big players control a huge chunk of the supply, any sudden moves on their part could trigger massive price swings. It's a double-edged sword, folks.

這是我的兩分錢：雖然供應緊縮可能會使比特幣價格飆升，但也引發了有關市場穩定性的問題。如果一些大玩家控制著大部分供應，那麼他們的任何突然移動都可能觸發大量的價格波動。伙計們，這是一把雙刃劍。

But, analysts like Fundstrat’s Tom Lee argue that easing US monetary policy could trigger a major rally in both Bitcoin and Ethereum in Q4, making BTC and ETH as one of the best crypto to buy in 2025.

但是，像Fundstrat的湯姆·李（Tom Lee）這樣的分析師認為，放鬆美國貨幣政策可能會引發第四季度比特幣和以太坊的重大集會，這使得BTC和ETH成為2025年購買的最佳加密貨幣之一。

Looking Ahead

展望未來

So, what does it all mean? Bitcoin's illiquid supply is likely to keep growing, potentially creating a supply squeeze. Whether that leads to a massive price surge or increased market volatility remains to be seen. One thing's for sure: the next few years are going to be wild.

那麼，這意味著什麼？比特幣的流動性供應可能會不斷增長，可能會造成供應壓縮。無論這是導致巨大的價格上漲還是市場波動提高還有待觀察。可以肯定的是：接下來的幾年將變得瘋狂。

Keep your eyes peeled, folks. This Bitcoin saga is far from over. And hey, who knows? Maybe we'll all be driving Lambos by 2032. Or maybe we'll be huddled around a digital fire, reminiscing about the good old days of liquid Bitcoin. Either way, it's gonna be interesting!

伙計們，睜大眼睛。這個比特幣傳奇還遠遠沒有結束。嘿，誰知道？也許我們所有人都在2032年之前駕駛Lambos。或者，也許我們會在數字火災中擠滿了蘭博斯，回想起液體比特幣的美好時光。無論哪種方式，這都會很有趣！