比特币的流动性供应紧缩：我们要挤压了吗？

Fidelity预测到2032年，比特币不当紧缩，可能会影响价格和市场动态。这对BTC的未来意味着什么？

Bitcoin's future is looking tight, y'all. Fidelity is saying that if things keep going the way they are, over 8.3 million BTC—that's like, 42% of the circulating supply—could become "illiquid" by 2032. Buckle up, it's gonna be a ride.

比特币的未来看起来很紧。富达说的是，如果事情不断发展，超过830万BTC（这就是循环供应的42％）可能会在2032年变得“流动性”。

The Great Bitcoin Lock-Up

伟大的比特币锁定

Fidelity dropped a report on Sept. 15, 2025, identifying two groups hoarding Bitcoin like there's no tomorrow: long-term holders who haven't touched their coins in at least seven years, and public companies stacking over 1,000 BTC each. These guys aren't selling anytime soon.

菲德利（Fidelity）于2025年9月15日放弃了一份报告，确定了两组ho积比特币，就像没有明天：长期持有人至少在至少七年内没有触摸硬币，而上市公司则堆积了1000多个BTC。这些家伙并没有很快卖出。

Source: Fidelity

资料来源：保真度

By Q2 2025, these entities could control over six million BTC, about 28% of the total supply. Fast forward to 2032, and we're talking 8.3 million BTC just chilling in cold storage. That's a lot of coins out of circulation.

到2025年第一季度，这些实体可以控制超过600万BTC，约占总供应量的28％。快进到2032年，我们谈论的830万BTC只是在冷藏中放松。这是很多货币中的很多硬币。

The Whale Factor

鲸鱼因子

Reduced liquid supply usually means upward price pressure. But, and it's a big but, what happens if these Bitcoin whales decide to cash out? Recent data shows Bitcoin whales offloaded nearly $12.7 billion in the last 30 days. That's the sharpest sell-off since mid-2022, dragging BTC down 2%.

液体供应减少通常意味着上价压力。但是，这是一个很大的，但是如果这些比特币鲸决定兑现，会发生什么？最近的数据显示，在过去30天内，比特币鲸在载荷近127亿美元。这是自2022年中以来最尖锐的抛售，将BTC拖入2％。

Short-Term Volatility vs. Long-Term HODL

短期波动率与长期HODL

Glassnode's weekly data indicates Bitcoin's rebound to $116,000 is facing resistance. Overbought RSI levels, rising profit-taking, and weakening conviction in spot markets hint at fragility. Futures markets remain active, but softer funding signals waning demand for leveraged longs.

GlassNode的每周数据表明，比特币的反弹至116,000美元，正面临着阻力。过多的RSI水平，利润的上升以及现货市场的信念削弱了脆弱性。期货市场仍然活跃，但较软的资金信号会减少对杠杆寿命的需求。

Is a Supply Crunch a Good Thing?

供应紧缩是一件好事吗？

Here's my two cents: While a supply crunch could send Bitcoin prices soaring, it also raises questions about market stability. If a few big players control a huge chunk of the supply, any sudden moves on their part could trigger massive price swings. It's a double-edged sword, folks.

这是我的两分钱：虽然供应紧缩可能会使比特币价格飙升，但也引发了有关市场稳定性的问题。如果一些大玩家控制着大部分供应，那么他们的任何突然移动都可能触发大量的价格波动。伙计们，这是一把双刃剑。

But, analysts like Fundstrat’s Tom Lee argue that easing US monetary policy could trigger a major rally in both Bitcoin and Ethereum in Q4, making BTC and ETH as one of the best crypto to buy in 2025.

但是，像Fundstrat的汤姆·李（Tom Lee）这样的分析师认为，放松美国货币政策可能会引发第四季度比特币和以太坊的重大集会，这使得BTC和ETH成为2025年购买的最佳加密货币之一。

Looking Ahead

展望未来

So, what does it all mean? Bitcoin's illiquid supply is likely to keep growing, potentially creating a supply squeeze. Whether that leads to a massive price surge or increased market volatility remains to be seen. One thing's for sure: the next few years are going to be wild.

那么，这意味着什么？比特币的流动性供应可能会不断增长，可能会造成供应压缩。无论这是导致巨大的价格上涨还是市场波动提高还有待观察。可以肯定的是：接下来的几年将变得疯狂。

Keep your eyes peeled, folks. This Bitcoin saga is far from over. And hey, who knows? Maybe we'll all be driving Lambos by 2032. Or maybe we'll be huddled around a digital fire, reminiscing about the good old days of liquid Bitcoin. Either way, it's gonna be interesting!

伙计们，睁大眼睛。这个比特币传奇还远远没有结束。嘿，谁知道？也许我们所有人都在2032年之前驾驶Lambos。或者，也许我们会在数字火灾中挤满了兰博斯，回想起液体比特币的美好时光。无论哪种方式，这都会很有趣！