比特幣減半：2028 年下一次減半事件前的預期

很少有事件能像減半一樣對比特幣（BTC 0.99%）產生如此大的影響。它們大約每四年發生一次，構成了比特幣的基礎

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) halvings are among the few events that hold remarkable sway over the leading cryptocurrency. Occurring roughly every four years, they form the cornerstone of Bitcoin's monetary design.

比特幣（CRYPTO：BTC）減半是少數對領先的加密貨幣產生顯著影響的事件之一。它們大約每四年發生一次，構成了比特幣貨幣設計的基石。

Bitcoin halvings -- which reduce the reward for mining -- have indeed led to consistent, recognizable patterns over the years since Bitcoin's 2009 launch. And while past performance doesn't guarantee future outcomes, the reliable nature of the halvings' intervals provides useful data points for investors. Given that the next halving won't take place until 2028, understanding these patterns could shed light on potential market developments between now and then.

自比特幣 2009 年推出以來，比特幣減半確實導致了多年來一致的、可識別的模式。雖然過去的表現並不能保證未來的結果，但減半間隔的可靠性質為投資者提供了有用的數據點。鑑於下一次減半要到 2028 年才會發生，了解這些模式可以揭示從現在到那時的潛在市場發展。

What are Bitcoin halvings and why do they matter?

什麼是比特幣減半以及它們為何重要？

Every 10 minutes or so, a new "block" is created on the Bitcoin blockchain. A Bitcoin halving occurs every 210,000 blocks, which roughly translates to once every four years. When these events occur, the rewards in new Bitcoin that miners receive for processing transactions and securing the network are cut in half, decreasing the rate at which new Bitcoin comes into circulation.

每隔 10 分鐘左右，比特幣區塊鏈上就會創建一個新的「區塊」。比特幣每 21 萬個區塊就會減半一次，大致相當於每四年一次。當這些事件發生時，礦工因處理交易和保護網路而獲得的新比特幣獎勵會減少一半，從而降低新比特幣進入流通的速度。

When Bitcoin was first launched in 2009, the block reward was 50 BTC. The first halving in 2012 reduced it to 25 BTC, followed by 12.5 BTC in 2016, and then to 6.25 BTC in 2020. This year's halving reduced the reward to 3.125 BTC per block, sending Bitcoin's annual inflation rate to less than 1%. This process will continue until 2140, when the last Bitcoins will be mined.

2009 年比特幣首次推出時，區塊獎勵為 50 BTC。 2012 年第一次減半將其獎勵減少到25 BTC，隨後在2016 年減少到12.5 BTC，然後在2020 年減少到6.25 BTC。幣的年通貨膨脹率降至不到1%。這個過程將持續到 2140 年，屆時最後一批比特幣將被開採。

The halving is a deliberate feature of Bitcoin's protocol, designed to control inflation and ensure that the total supply of Bitcoin that can ever exist is capped at 21 million. By reducing the rate at which new Bitcoin is created, the halvings exert upward pressure on Bitcoin's price, assuming that demand remains constant or increases. Historically, this deflationary mechanism has been a key driver of Bitcoin's price appreciation, as it introduces scarcity into the market.

減半是比特幣協議的一個特意特徵，旨在控制通貨膨脹並確保比特幣的總供應上限為 2,100 萬。透過降低新比特幣的創建速度，假設需求保持不變或增加，減半會對比特幣的價格施加上行壓力。從歷史上看，這種通貨緊縮機制一直是比特幣價格升值的關鍵驅動因素，因為它為市場帶來了稀缺性。

What could happen before the next halving?

下一次減半之前會發生什麼事？

So what could happen between now and the next halving predicted for 2028? Well, for now, it appears that the market is in a bullish trend and has yet to hit a peak. Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen compared Bitcoin's price movements across the last three cycles in the chart below, and his analysis suggests that the current market still has room to grow.

那麼從現在到 2028 年預測的下一次減半會發生什麼事？嗯，目前看來，市場處於看漲趨勢，尚未見頂。加密貨幣分析師 Benjamin Cowen 在下圖中比較了比特幣在過去三個週期的價格走勢，他的分析顯示當前市場仍有成長空間。

Despite everything, #BTC is right around where it always is at this point in the market cycle pic.twitter.com/zO52x9tAtX

儘管如此，#BTC 仍然處於市場週期的此時點 pic.twitter.com/zO52x9tAtX

If past trends hold, this bull market could see a peak sometime in 2025. While predicting the exact price is challenging, it's reasonable to expect that Bitcoin could achieve a significant increase from its current levels.

如果過去的趨勢持續下去，這次牛市可能會在 2025 年的某個時候達到頂峰。

But eventually, what goes up has to come down. As euphoric as the peak periods of Bitcoin bull markets can get, painful and brutal crypto winters usually set in just as fast.

但最終，上漲的東西必然會下跌。儘管比特幣牛市的高峰期令人欣喜，但痛苦和殘酷的加密貨幣冬天通常也會很快到來。

For example, during the last market cycle, Bitcoin fell from a high of $68,000 to $34,000 in just two months, eventually bottoming out at $16,000 by late 2022. This type of volatile price action has been consistent across previous cycles and could very well repeat as we approach 2026 and 2027.

例如，在上一個市場週期中，比特幣在短短兩個月內從68,000 美元的高點跌至34,000 美元，最終在2022 年底觸底至16,000 美元。一直是一致的，並且很可能會重複出現：我們即將迎來 2026 年和 2027 年。

But history tells us that periods of contraction are often followed by new phases of growth and there's reason to believe that 2028 could be a year when Bitcoin once again rises from a crypto winter.

但歷史告訴我們，收縮期之後往往會出現新的成長階段，我們有理由相信 2028 年可能是比特幣再次從加密貨幣寒冬中崛起的一年。

Navigating Bitcoin's cycles

駕馭比特幣的周期

While no one can accurately predict the future, Bitcoin's historical patterns are difficult to dismiss and offer valuable insights for investors. Understanding these cycles can help investors navigate Bitcoin's volatility, recognizing it as part of a broader trend toward higher prices over time.

雖然沒有人能夠準確預測未來，但比特幣的歷史模式很難被忽視，並為投資者提供了寶貴的見解。了解這些週期可以幫助投資者應對比特幣的波動性，將其視為隨著時間推移價格上漲的更廣泛趨勢的一部分。

Although the current bull market has likely yet to hit a peak, it will eventually give way to a bear market. But if there's anything history has taught us, it's that these periods present opportunities to accumulate the cryptocurrency at lower prices, positioning investors for potential gains as the next halving gets closer.

儘管目前的多頭市場可能尚未見頂，但最終將迎來熊市。但如果歷史告訴我們什麼的話，那就是這些時期提供了以較低價格累積加密貨幣的機會，為投資者在下一次減半臨近時獲得潛在收益做好準備。