比特币减半：2028 年下一次减半事件之前的预期

很少有事件能像减半一样对比特币（BTC 0.99%）产生如此大的影响。它们大约每四年发生一次，构成了比特币的基础

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) halvings are among the few events that hold remarkable sway over the leading cryptocurrency. Occurring roughly every four years, they form the cornerstone of Bitcoin's monetary design.

比特币（CRYPTO：BTC）减半是对领先的加密货币产生显着影响的少数事件之一。它们大约每四年发生一次，构成了比特币货币设计的基石。

Bitcoin halvings -- which reduce the reward for mining -- have indeed led to consistent, recognizable patterns over the years since Bitcoin's 2009 launch. And while past performance doesn't guarantee future outcomes, the reliable nature of the halvings' intervals provides useful data points for investors. Given that the next halving won't take place until 2028, understanding these patterns could shed light on potential market developments between now and then.

自比特币 2009 年推出以来，比特币减半确实导致了多年来一致的、可识别的模式。虽然过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果，但减半间隔的可靠性质为投资者提供了有用的数据点。鉴于下一次减半要到 2028 年才会发生，了解这些模式可以揭示从现在到那时的潜在市场发展。

What are Bitcoin halvings and why do they matter?

什么是比特币减半以及它们为何重要？

Every 10 minutes or so, a new "block" is created on the Bitcoin blockchain. A Bitcoin halving occurs every 210,000 blocks, which roughly translates to once every four years. When these events occur, the rewards in new Bitcoin that miners receive for processing transactions and securing the network are cut in half, decreasing the rate at which new Bitcoin comes into circulation.

每隔 10 分钟左右，比特币区块链上就会创建一个新的“区块”。比特币每 210,000 个区块就会减半一次，大致相当于每四年一次。当这些事件发生时，矿工因处理交易和保护网络而获得的新比特币奖励会减少一半，从而降低新比特币进入流通的速度。

When Bitcoin was first launched in 2009, the block reward was 50 BTC. The first halving in 2012 reduced it to 25 BTC, followed by 12.5 BTC in 2016, and then to 6.25 BTC in 2020. This year's halving reduced the reward to 3.125 BTC per block, sending Bitcoin's annual inflation rate to less than 1%. This process will continue until 2140, when the last Bitcoins will be mined.

2009 年比特币首次推出时，区块奖励为 50 BTC。 2012 年第一次减半将其奖励减少到 25 BTC，随后在 2016 年减少到 12.5 BTC，然后在 2020 年减少到 6.25 BTC。今年的减半将奖励减少到每个区块 3.125 BTC，使比特币的年通货膨胀率降至不到 1%。这个过程将持续到 2140 年，届时最后一批比特币将被开采。

The halving is a deliberate feature of Bitcoin's protocol, designed to control inflation and ensure that the total supply of Bitcoin that can ever exist is capped at 21 million. By reducing the rate at which new Bitcoin is created, the halvings exert upward pressure on Bitcoin's price, assuming that demand remains constant or increases. Historically, this deflationary mechanism has been a key driver of Bitcoin's price appreciation, as it introduces scarcity into the market.

减半是比特币协议的一个特意特征，旨在控制通货膨胀并确保比特币的总供应量上限为 2100 万。通过降低新比特币的创建速度，假设需求保持不变或增加，减半会对比特币的价格施加上行压力。从历史上看，这种通缩机制一直是比特币价格升值的关键驱动因素，因为它给市场带来了稀缺性。

What could happen before the next halving?

下一次减半之前会发生什么？

So what could happen between now and the next halving predicted for 2028? Well, for now, it appears that the market is in a bullish trend and has yet to hit a peak. Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen compared Bitcoin's price movements across the last three cycles in the chart below, and his analysis suggests that the current market still has room to grow.

那么从现在到 2028 年预测的下一次减半会发生什么？嗯，目前看来，市场处于看涨趋势，尚未见顶。加密货币分析师 Benjamin Cowen 在下图中比较了比特币在过去三个周期的价格走势，他的分析表明当前市场仍有增长空间。

Despite everything, #BTC is right around where it always is at this point in the market cycle pic.twitter.com/zO52x9tAtX

尽管如此，#BTC 仍然处于市场周期的此时点 pic.twitter.com/zO52x9tAtX

If past trends hold, this bull market could see a peak sometime in 2025. While predicting the exact price is challenging, it's reasonable to expect that Bitcoin could achieve a significant increase from its current levels.

如果过去的趋势持续下去，这次牛市可能会在 2025 年的某个时候达到顶峰。虽然预测确切的价格具有挑战性，但可以合理地预期比特币可能会在当前水平上实现大幅上涨。

But eventually, what goes up has to come down. As euphoric as the peak periods of Bitcoin bull markets can get, painful and brutal crypto winters usually set in just as fast.

但最终，上涨的东西必然会下跌。尽管比特币牛市的高峰期令人欣喜，但痛苦和残酷的加密货币冬天通常也会很快到来。

For example, during the last market cycle, Bitcoin fell from a high of $68,000 to $34,000 in just two months, eventually bottoming out at $16,000 by late 2022. This type of volatile price action has been consistent across previous cycles and could very well repeat as we approach 2026 and 2027.

例如，在上一个市场周期中，比特币在短短两个月内从 68,000 美元的高点跌至 34,000 美元，最终在 2022 年底触底至 16,000 美元。这种波动的价格走势在之前的周期中一直是一致的，并且很可能会重复出现：我们即将迎来 2026 年和 2027 年。

But history tells us that periods of contraction are often followed by new phases of growth and there's reason to believe that 2028 could be a year when Bitcoin once again rises from a crypto winter.

但历史告诉我们，收缩期之后往往会出现新的增长阶段，我们有理由相信 2028 年可能是比特币再次从加密货币寒冬中崛起的一年。

Navigating Bitcoin's cycles

驾驭比特币的周期

While no one can accurately predict the future, Bitcoin's historical patterns are difficult to dismiss and offer valuable insights for investors. Understanding these cycles can help investors navigate Bitcoin's volatility, recognizing it as part of a broader trend toward higher prices over time.

虽然没有人能够准确预测未来，但比特币的历史模式很难被忽视，并为投资者提供了宝贵的见解。了解这些周期可以帮助投资者应对比特币的波动性，将其视为随着时间推移价格上涨的更广泛趋势的一部分。

Although the current bull market has likely yet to hit a peak, it will eventually give way to a bear market. But if there's anything history has taught us, it's that these periods present opportunities to accumulate the cryptocurrency at lower prices, positioning investors for potential gains as the next halving gets closer.

尽管当前的牛市可能尚未见顶，但最终将迎来熊市。但如果历史告诉我们什么的话，那就是这些时期提供了以较低价格积累加密货币的机会，为投资者在下一次减半临近时获得潜在收益做好准备。