儘管夏季低迷，比特幣減半可能仍會推動價格飆升

隨著比特幣減半事件的臨近，加密貨幣交易者預計價格可能會飆升。然而，Coinbase 警告稱，減半的時間恰逢加密貨幣市場和風險資產傳統上的疲軟時期，可能會阻礙價格的大幅上漲。儘管如此，該交易所觀察到越來越多的新買家進入加密貨幣市場的跡象，並認為逢低買入可能會被積極購買，從而支持價格發現，儘管波動仍在持續。

Bitcoin Halving Looms as Potential Catalyst for Price Surge, Despite Seasonal Headwinds

儘管存在季節性阻力，比特幣減半仍將成為價格飆升的潛在催化劑

Amidst the anticipation surrounding Bitcoin's (BTC) impending halving event, cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase provides a tempered outlook, acknowledging the potential for market volatility and the challenges posed by historical seasonal trends.

在圍繞比特幣 (BTC) 即將發生的減半事件的預期中，加密貨幣交易所 Coinbase 提供了溫和的前景，承認市場波動的潛力以及歷史季節性趨勢帶來的挑戰。

Market Dynamics and Halving's Impact

市場動態與減半的影響

Coinbase's April 5 market commentary report suggests that the crypto market requires a compelling narrative to drive prices higher across the board. The upcoming Bitcoin halving, tentatively scheduled for April 20 or 21, could act as a catalyst for price increases. However, this surge must contend with a historically weak period for crypto markets and risk assets.

Coinbase 4 月 5 日的市場評論報告表明，加密貨幣市場需要一個令人信服的敘述來推動價格全面走高。即將到來的比特幣減半（暫定於 4 月 20 日或 21 日）可能會成為價格上漲的催化劑。然而，這種激增必須應對加密貨幣市場和風險資產的歷史疲軟時期。

Data from digital asset analytics firm Brave New Coin reveals that Bitcoin has typically exhibited a modest monthly return of approximately 2.7% from June to September since 2011. In contrast, the remaining eight months have averaged a return of nearly 19.3%.

數位資產分析公司Brave New Coin 的數據顯示，自2011 年以來，比特幣從6 月到9 月的平均月回報率通常約為2.7%。相較之下，其餘8 個月的平均回報率接近19.3 %。

Trading Volumes and Investor Appetite

交易量和投資者興趣

Coinbase additionally highlights a decrease in overall crypto trading volumes as the market searches for a new narrative to drive further growth. Within the past 24 hours, total crypto volume amounted to $61.78 billion, representing a 33.25% decline compared to the previous day, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Coinbase 也強調，隨著市場尋找新的敘事來推動進一步成長，整體加密貨幣交易量有所下降。 CoinMarketCap 數據顯示，過去 24 小時內，加密貨幣總交易量為 617.8 億美元，較前一天下降 33.25%。

Despite this downturn, the crypto exchange observes positive indicators suggesting a potential influx of new investors entering the crypto market in the long term. Coinbase believes that Bitcoin's growing acceptance as a form of "digital gold" could attract demand from a new segment of investors.

儘管經濟低迷，但加密貨幣交易所觀察到的積極指標表明，從長遠來看，新投資者可能會湧入加密貨幣市場。 Coinbase 認為，比特幣作為「數位黃金」的一種形式越來越被接受，可能會吸引新的投資者群體的需求。

Currently, Bitcoin's dominance in the overall crypto market stands at 50.6%, reflecting its market capitalization relative to the entire crypto sector, as per CoinStats data. The report notes that investors waiting for price dips to enter the market may find fewer opportunities as more investors become involved.

根據 CoinStats 的數據，目前，比特幣在整個加密市場的主導地位為 50.6%，反映了其相對於整個加密產業的市值。報告指出，隨著越來越多的投資者參與其中，等待價格下跌進入市場的投資者可能會發現更少的機會。

"As a result, we believe dips are likely to be more aggressively bought versus earlier cycles, while volatility persists throughout price discovery," Coinbase stated.

Coinbase 表示：“因此，我們認為，與早期週期相比，逢低買入可能會更積極，而波動性在整個價格發現過程中持續存在。”

Historical Halving Effects

歷史減半效應

Halving events have historically been associated with price spikes in Bitcoin. Following the previous halving event in May 2020, Bitcoin's value surged. Starting at $8,787 during the halving, the cryptocurrency experienced a rally, eventually reaching approximately $69,000 in November 2021.

從歷史上看，減半事件與比特幣價格飆升有關。繼 2020 年 5 月的上一次減半事件之後，比特幣的價值飆升。該加密貨幣在減半期間從 8,787 美元開始，經歷了一輪反彈，最終在 2021 年 11 月達到約 69,000 美元。

Legal Developments and Cryptocurrency Regulation

法律發展與加密貨幣監管

On April 6, Cointelegraph reported that the U.S. Court of Appeals ruled in favor of Coinbase, confirming that the secondary sales of cryptocurrencies on its platform do not violate the Securities Exchange Act. The plaintiffs had argued that Coinbase was offering and selling unregistered securities and violating other provisions of securities laws. However, Coinbase successfully argued that secondary crypto-asset sales did not meet the criteria for securities transactions.

4 月 6 日，Cointelegraph 報告稱，美國上訴法院做出了有利於 Coinbase 的裁決，確認其平台上加密貨幣的二次銷售並不違反《證券交易法》。原告辯稱，Coinbase 正在發行和銷售未經註冊的證券，並違反了證券法的其他規定。然而，Coinbase 成功辯稱二級加密資產銷售不符合證券交易標準。

Conclusion

結論

The Bitcoin halving event is a significant development that could potentially lead to price increases. However, the market's seasonal weakness and other factors create uncertainty. Despite this, Coinbase believes that the crypto market is ripe for growth, with new investors entering the space and a growing acceptance of Bitcoin as a store of value. The halving event will be closely watched as a potential catalyst for further market evolution.

比特幣減半事件是一個重大進展，可能會導致價格上漲。然而，市場的季節性疲軟和其他因素帶來了不確定性。儘管如此，Coinbase 認為，隨著新投資者進入該領域，並且越來越多的人接受比特幣作為價值儲存手段，加密貨幣市場的成長已經成熟。減半事件將被視為市場進一步演變的潛在催化劑而受到密切關注。