2024 年比特幣減半：事件發生後的幾天、幾個月或幾年會發生什麼事？

比特幣是一種數位貨幣，每四年就會經歷一次減半的過程。一旦發生減半事件，開採新BTC的獎勵將下降50%。

Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs every four years and reduces the reward for mining a new BTC by 50%. Four years ago, the market reacted positively to this occurrence, and Bitcoin gained significant value. That’s the expected reaction, considering that halving affirms BTC’s value and adds to its scarcity. Investors are often active and buy Bitcoin with credit card around this event to capitalize on price growth.

比特幣減半是每四年發生一次的事件，會使開採新 BTC 的獎勵減少 50%。四年前，市場對這一事件做出了積極反應，比特幣獲得了巨大的價值。考慮到減半肯定了 BTC 的價值並增加了其稀缺性，這是預期的反應。在此事件期間，投資者通常很活躍並用信用卡購買比特幣，以利用價格上漲的機會。

The latest BTC halving occurred on April 19, 2024. What can we expect in the following days, months, or years?

最近一次 BTC 減半發生在 2024 年 4 月 19 日。

Key Moments During This Halving

減半期間的關鍵時刻

First, let’s check out the key facts and then analyze the halving:

首先我們來看看關鍵事實，然後再分析一下減半：

The halving block was the 840,000th on the blockchain. The fee for mining it was over $2.6 million, which was about 6 times more than the $450K prize for several blocks before that. At this point, nobody explained why this happened. An assumption is that investors around the world have paid more to ensure their transfer is among those in the special block.

減半區塊是區塊鏈上的第 84 萬個區塊。挖礦費用超過 260 萬美元，大約是之前幾個區塊 45 萬美元獎金的 6 倍。此時，沒有人解釋為什麼會發生這種情況。一種假設是，世界各地的投資者已經支付了更多費用，以確保他們的轉帳屬於特殊區塊。

Market Performance Before and After Bitcoin Halving

比特幣減半前後的市場表現

If we analyze the BTC price a few months before the halving, we’ll see that the coin was worth $51,669 on February 22nd, 2024. It was an exciting week for Bitcoin since it went over the $62,000 mark by the end of the month.

如果我們分析減半前幾個月的BTC 價格，我們會發現該代幣在2024 年2 月22 日價值51,669 美元。 62,000 美元大關。

After a few days of stabilization, the value kept increasing. Bitcoin reached its all-time high on March 14, 2024. It was $73,750 at that point. BTC had major fluctuations during March, so it didn’t keep that value for long. It dropped to under $62,000 but bounced back to $69,641 on March 31st, 2024.

經過幾天的穩定，價值不斷上漲。比特幣於 2024 年 3 月 14 日達到歷史新高。 BTC在3月份出現了較大的波動，因此它並沒有長期維持這個價值。它跌至 62,000 美元以下，但於 2024 年 3 月 31 日反彈至 69,641 美元。

BTC’s value on the day of halving was approximately $63,000. A minor spike occurred in the following three days, leading the coin’s worth to over $66,000. Then it went as low as $58,568 on May 1st, which was surprising. After a week or two of considerable fluctuations, BTC regained its value.

減半當天 BTC 的價值約為 63,000 美元。接下來的三天出現了小幅上漲，導致代幣的價值超過 66,000 美元。然後在 5 月 1 日跌至 58,568 美元，令人驚訝。經過一兩週的大幅波動後，BTC 恢復了價值。

Bitcoin was worth $70,610 on May 21st, 2024. It remains to be seen whether the currency can set a new all-time high in the coming months. According to the 2024 market forecast, we can be moderately optimistic about BTC.

2024 年 5 月 21 日，比特幣價值 70,610 美元。根據2024年的市場預測，我們可以適度看好BTC。

Predictions for the Future

對未來的預測

Some factors speak in favor of both bearish and bullish times for Bitcoin. Many experts are confused because BTC usually achieves a new all-time high after the halving. This time, it occurred before the event.

一些因素有利於比特幣的看跌和看漲時期。許多專家感到困惑，因為比特幣通常會在減半後創下歷史新高。這一次，事情發生在事件發生之前。

According to the specialists from JPMorgan, the expected price changes regarding the halving process were already factored in before the event. That’s why it’s hard to expect that halving will have a huge impact on BTC’s worth.

摩根大通的專家表示，減半過程中的預期價格變動在事件發生前就已考慮在內。這就是為什麼很難指望減半會對比特幣的價值產生巨大影響。

As for the medium-term outlook for Bitcoin, the experts are optimistic. That’s also not because of the halving but the general market conditions. Goldman’s analysts believe that the main factor affecting the price performance will be the increased demand for Bitcoin ETFs, which have been approved this year.

對於比特幣的中期前景，專家們持樂觀態度。這也不是因為減半，而是因為整體市場狀況。高盛分析師認為，影響價格表現的主要因素將是今年已獲批准的比特幣ETF需求的增加。

There’s also the overall supply-demand dynamic. The halving event affects it in the long run since the reduction in mining prizes means that BTC scarcity is higher than before. Experts believe this won’t affect Bitcoin as much in the short run as it will in the long run. The next halving event is in four years. As we get closer to it, we might see BTC gaining more value due to the increased demand to gain crypto before the rewards drop by 50% again. That makes Bitcoin an attractive long-term investment if that option is in your portfolio.

還有整體供需動態。從長遠來看，減半事件會對其產生影響，因為挖礦獎勵的減少意味著 BTC 的稀缺性比以前更高。專家認為，這對比特幣的短期影響不會像長期影響那麼大。下一次減半事件是在四年後。隨著我們越來越接近它，我們可能會看到 BTC 獲得更多價值，因為在獎勵再次下降 50% 之前獲得加密貨幣的需求增加。如果您的投資組合中有該選項，那麼比特幣將成為一項有吸引力的長期投資。