2024 年比特币减半：事件发生后的几天、几个月或几年会发生什么？

比特币是一种数字货币，每四年就会经历一次减半的过程。一旦发生减半事件，开采新BTC的奖励将下降50%。

Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs every four years and reduces the reward for mining a new BTC by 50%. Four years ago, the market reacted positively to this occurrence, and Bitcoin gained significant value. That’s the expected reaction, considering that halving affirms BTC’s value and adds to its scarcity. Investors are often active and buy Bitcoin with credit card around this event to capitalize on price growth.

比特币减半是每四年发生一次的事件，会使开采新 BTC 的奖励减少 50%。四年前，市场对这一事件做出了积极反应，比特币获得了巨大的价值。考虑到减半肯定了 BTC 的价值并增加了其稀缺性，这是预期的反应。在此事件期间，投资者通常很活跃并用信用卡购买比特币，以利用价格上涨的机会。

The latest BTC halving occurred on April 19, 2024. What can we expect in the following days, months, or years?

最近一次 BTC 减半发生在 2024 年 4 月 19 日。在接下来的几天、几个月或几年里我们可以期待什么？

Key Moments During This Halving

减半期间的关键时刻

First, let’s check out the key facts and then analyze the halving:

首先我们来看看关键事实，然后分析一下减半：

The halving block was the 840,000th on the blockchain. The fee for mining it was over $2.6 million, which was about 6 times more than the $450K prize for several blocks before that. At this point, nobody explained why this happened. An assumption is that investors around the world have paid more to ensure their transfer is among those in the special block.

减半区块是区块链上的第 840,000 个区块。挖矿费用超过 260 万美元，大约是之前几个区块 45 万美元奖金的 6 倍。此时，没有人解释为什么会发生这种情况。一种假设是，世界各地的投资者已经支付了更多费用，以确保他们的转账属于特殊区块。

Market Performance Before and After Bitcoin Halving

比特币减半前后的市场表现

If we analyze the BTC price a few months before the halving, we’ll see that the coin was worth $51,669 on February 22nd, 2024. It was an exciting week for Bitcoin since it went over the $62,000 mark by the end of the month.

如果我们分析减半前几个月的 BTC 价格，我们会发现该代币在 2024 年 2 月 22 日价值 51,669 美元。对于比特币来说，这是令人兴奋的一周，因为它在月底突破了 62,000 美元大关。

After a few days of stabilization, the value kept increasing. Bitcoin reached its all-time high on March 14, 2024. It was $73,750 at that point. BTC had major fluctuations during March, so it didn’t keep that value for long. It dropped to under $62,000 but bounced back to $69,641 on March 31st, 2024.

经过几天的稳定，价值不断上涨。比特币于 2024 年 3 月 14 日达到历史新高。当时价格为 73,750 美元。 BTC在3月份出现了较大的波动，因此它并没有长期保持这个价值。它跌至 62,000 美元以下，但于 2024 年 3 月 31 日反弹至 69,641 美元。

BTC’s value on the day of halving was approximately $63,000. A minor spike occurred in the following three days, leading the coin’s worth to over $66,000. Then it went as low as $58,568 on May 1st, which was surprising. After a week or two of considerable fluctuations, BTC regained its value.

减半当天 BTC 的价值约为 63,000 美元。接下来的三天里出现了小幅上涨，导致代币的价值超过 66,000 美元。然后在 5 月 1 日跌至 58,568 美元，令人惊讶。经过一两周的大幅波动后，BTC 恢复了价值。

Bitcoin was worth $70,610 on May 21st, 2024. It remains to be seen whether the currency can set a new all-time high in the coming months. According to the 2024 market forecast, we can be moderately optimistic about BTC.

2024 年 5 月 21 日，比特币价值 70,610 美元。该货币能否在未来几个月创下新的历史高点还有待观察。根据2024年的市场预测，我们可以适度看好BTC。

Predictions for the Future

对未来的预测

Some factors speak in favor of both bearish and bullish times for Bitcoin. Many experts are confused because BTC usually achieves a new all-time high after the halving. This time, it occurred before the event.

一些因素有利于比特币的看跌和看涨时期。许多专家感到困惑，因为比特币通常会在减半后创下历史新高。这一次，事情发生在事件发生之前。

According to the specialists from JPMorgan, the expected price changes regarding the halving process were already factored in before the event. That’s why it’s hard to expect that halving will have a huge impact on BTC’s worth.

摩根大通的专家表示，减半过程中的预期价格变化在事件发生之前就已考虑在内。这就是为什么很难指望减半会对比特币的价值产生巨大影响。

As for the medium-term outlook for Bitcoin, the experts are optimistic. That’s also not because of the halving but the general market conditions. Goldman’s analysts believe that the main factor affecting the price performance will be the increased demand for Bitcoin ETFs, which have been approved this year.

对于比特币的中期前景，专家们持乐观态度。这也不是因为减半，而是因为总体市场状况。高盛分析师认为，影响价格表现的主要因素将是对今年已获批准的比特币ETF需求的增加。

There’s also the overall supply-demand dynamic. The halving event affects it in the long run since the reduction in mining prizes means that BTC scarcity is higher than before. Experts believe this won’t affect Bitcoin as much in the short run as it will in the long run. The next halving event is in four years. As we get closer to it, we might see BTC gaining more value due to the increased demand to gain crypto before the rewards drop by 50% again. That makes Bitcoin an attractive long-term investment if that option is in your portfolio.

还有整体供需动态。从长远来看，减半事件会对其产生影响，因为挖矿奖励的减少意味着 BTC 的稀缺性比以前更高。专家认为，这对比特币的短期影响不会像长期影响那么大。下一次减半事件是在四年后。随着我们越来越接近它，我们可能会看到 BTC 获得更多价值，因为在奖励再次下降 50% 之前获得加密货币的需求增加。如果您的投资组合中有该选项，那么比特币将成为一项有吸引力的长期投资。