比特幣減半之謎：分析師顛覆四年周期假設

在最近的比特幣減半中，加密貨幣分析師 Michaël van de Poppe 對比特幣四年週期的有效性提出質疑。他建議縮短週期，可能會在 2026 年底或 2027 年左右結束嚴重的熊市。

Bitcoin's Halving Enigma: Analyst Casts Doubt on Traditional Four-Year Cycle

比特幣減半之謎：分析師對傳統的四年週期表示懷疑

Despite the recent Bitcoin halving event, the digital currency's price has failed to exhibit an immediate upward trajectory. This has prompted cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe to question the viability of the widely held belief in a four-year price cycle for Bitcoin.

儘管最近發生了比特幣減半事件，但數位貨幣的價格未能表現出立即上漲的軌跡。這促使加密貨幣分析師 Michaël van de Poppe 質疑人們普遍認為的比特幣四年價格週期的可行性。

Van de Poppe contends that this cycle may deviate from its historical pattern due to the unprecedented liquidity conditions in the cryptocurrency market. In a recent analysis, he suggests that the current cycle could be significantly shorter, potentially lasting less than three years.

Van de Poppe 認為，由於加密貨幣市場前所未有的流動性狀況，這個週期可能會偏離其歷史模式。在最近的分析中，他認為目前的周期可能會大大縮短，可能持續不到三年。

"I feel that this cycle is going to last till late '26, maybe '27, after which, we're dealing with a severe disaster," van de Poppe tweeted on May 12. This stark prediction implies that the Bitcoin market faces a steep decline in the near future.

van de Poppe 在5 月12 日發推文說：「我覺得這個週期將持續到26 年末，也許是27 年，之後我們將面臨一場嚴重的災難。」這一嚴峻的預測意味著比特幣市場面臨近期將大幅下滑。

Alternative Price Strategy: Selling Bitcoin for Altcoins

另類價格策略：出售比特幣換山寨幣

In a bold move, van de Poppe has also announced that he is selling all his Bitcoin holdings. His rationale is to reallocate his capital towards other assets that offer more opportunities for exponential growth.

范德波普還宣布，他將出售其持有的所有比特幣，這是一個大膽的舉動。他的理由是將資金重新分配到其他提供更多指數成長機會的資產。

"I'm swapping my Bitcoin towards altcoins because I feel that there's a large alternative cost on the market," he explained in a YouTube video.

「我正在將比特幣換成山寨幣，因為我覺得市場上有很大的替代成本，」他在 YouTube 影片中解釋道。

Van de Poppe advocates for an 'alternative price' strategy, which involves rotating out of altcoins once they have appreciated in value to acquire more Bitcoin.

Van de Poppe 提倡「替代價格」策略，一旦山寨幣升值，就將其淘汰，以獲取更多比特幣。

Bitcoin Price Analysis

比特幣價格分析

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $62,960, having gained 3.11% in the past 24 hours. However, it has lost 3.35% over the past week and 6.63% over the past month.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格約為 62,960 美元，在過去 24 小時內上漲了 3.11%。然而，過去一周下跌了3.35%，過去一個月下跌了6.63%。

Cautionary Note

注意事項

While cryptocurrency experts like van de Poppe provide valuable insights, it is crucial to emphasize that investing involves inherent risks. Investors should conduct thorough research and determine their own risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The information presented here should not be construed as financial advice.

雖然像 van de Poppe 這樣的加密貨幣專家提供了寶貴的見解，但必須強調投資涉及固有風險，這一點至關重要。投資者在做出任何投資決定之前應進行充分的研究並確定自己的風險承受能力。此處提供的資訊不應被視為財務建議。