比特币减半之谜：分析师颠覆四年周期假设

在最近的比特币减半中，加密货币分析师 Michaël van de Poppe 对比特币四年周期的有效性提出质疑。他建议缩短周期，可能会在 2026 年末或 2027 年左右结束严重的熊市。Van de Poppe 的“替代价格”策略包括以山寨币出售比特币，旨在利用潜在回报并最终获得更多比特币。

Bitcoin's Halving Enigma: Analyst Casts Doubt on Traditional Four-Year Cycle

比特币减半之谜：分析师对传统的四年周期表示怀疑

Despite the recent Bitcoin halving event, the digital currency's price has failed to exhibit an immediate upward trajectory. This has prompted cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe to question the viability of the widely held belief in a four-year price cycle for Bitcoin.

尽管最近发生了比特币减半事件，但数字货币的价格未能表现出立即上涨的轨迹。这促使加密货币分析师 Michaël van de Poppe 质疑人们普遍认为的比特币四年价格周期的可行性。

Van de Poppe contends that this cycle may deviate from its historical pattern due to the unprecedented liquidity conditions in the cryptocurrency market. In a recent analysis, he suggests that the current cycle could be significantly shorter, potentially lasting less than three years.

Van de Poppe 认为，由于加密货币市场前所未有的流动性状况，这一周期可能会偏离其历史模式。在最近的分析中，他认为当前的周期可能会大大缩短，可能持续不到三年。

"I feel that this cycle is going to last till late '26, maybe '27, after which, we're dealing with a severe disaster," van de Poppe tweeted on May 12. This stark prediction implies that the Bitcoin market faces a steep decline in the near future.

van de Poppe 在 5 月 12 日发推文称：“我觉得这个周期将持续到 26 年末，也许是 27 年，之后我们将面临一场严重的灾难。”这一严峻的预测意味着比特币市场面临着近期将大幅下滑。

Alternative Price Strategy: Selling Bitcoin for Altcoins

另类价格策略：出售比特币换取山寨币

In a bold move, van de Poppe has also announced that he is selling all his Bitcoin holdings. His rationale is to reallocate his capital towards other assets that offer more opportunities for exponential growth.

范德波普还宣布，他将出售其持有的所有比特币，这是一个大胆的举动。他的理由是将资金重新分配到其他提供更多指数增长机会的资产。

"I'm swapping my Bitcoin towards altcoins because I feel that there's a large alternative cost on the market," he explained in a YouTube video.

“我正在将比特币换成山寨币，因为我觉得市场上有很大的替代成本，”他在 YouTube 视频中解释道。

Van de Poppe advocates for an 'alternative price' strategy, which involves rotating out of altcoins once they have appreciated in value to acquire more Bitcoin.

Van de Poppe 提倡“替代价格”策略，即一旦山寨币升值，就将其淘汰，以获取更多比特币。

Bitcoin Price Analysis

比特币价格分析

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $62,960, having gained 3.11% in the past 24 hours. However, it has lost 3.35% over the past week and 6.63% over the past month.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格约为 62,960 美元，在过去 24 小时内上涨了 3.11%。然而，过去一周下跌了3.35%，过去一个月下跌了6.63%。

Cautionary Note

注意事项

While cryptocurrency experts like van de Poppe provide valuable insights, it is crucial to emphasize that investing involves inherent risks. Investors should conduct thorough research and determine their own risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The information presented here should not be construed as financial advice.

虽然像 van de Poppe 这样的加密货币专家提供了宝贵的见解，但必须强调投资涉及固有风险，这一点至关重要。投资者在做出任何投资决定之前应进行充分的研究并确定自己的风险承受能力。此处提供的信息不应被视为财务建议。