比特幣減半：買富礦還是市場幻象？

在比特幣第四次減半後，加密貨幣投資者正在預測對比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場的影響。加密貨幣指數基金資訊長 Matt Hougan 認為，由於由此產生的供應緊縮，減半提供了「買入新聞」的機會，並引用了減半事件後的歷史價格反彈。減半減少了礦工的區塊獎勵，可能導致現有比特幣的稀缺性和價值增加。儘管在先前的減半後立即出現波動，但從歷史上看，比特幣在這些事件發生後的一年內經歷了顯著的價格上漲。

Bitcoin Halving: A Buying Opportunity or a Market Gimmick?

比特幣減半：買入機會還是市場噱頭？

The long-anticipated fourth halving of Bitcoin, a landmark event that occurs approximately every four years, has now been completed. As the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Bitcoin's movements significantly impact the broader crypto ecosystem, making this event a subject of intense speculation and scrutiny for investors worldwide.

人們期待已久的比特幣第四次減半，大約每四年發生一次的里程碑事件，現在已經完成。作為市值最大的加密貨幣，比特幣的走勢對更廣泛的加密生態系統產生了重大影響，使這一事件成為全球投資者強烈猜測和審查的主題。

Understanding the Halving

了解減半

The halving refers to a predetermined reduction in the block reward granted to miners for validating transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain. This reward, which is received in Bitcoin, is designed to incentivize miners to maintain the network's security and integrity.

減半是指給予礦工驗證比特幣區塊鏈交易的區塊獎勵的預定減少。這種以比特幣形式獲得的獎勵旨在激勵礦工維護網路的安全性和完整性。

With each halving, the amount of newly minted Bitcoin entering circulation is effectively halved. The theory behind this mechanism is that with a reduction in supply and no change in demand, the value of existing Bitcoin should increase.

每次減半，新鑄造的進入流通的比特幣數量實際上會減半。這種機制背後的理論是，在供應減少且需求不變的情況下，現有比特幣的價值應該會增加。

Historical Patterns

歷史模式

Past halving events have indeed been accompanied by substantial price rallies for Bitcoin. In the year following the previous three halvings, Bitcoin's price has experienced significant gains:

過去的減半事件確實伴隨著比特幣價格的大幅上漲。在前三次減半後的一年裡，比特幣的價格經歷了大幅上漲：

• 2012: 1,106% increase
• 2016: 2,302% increase
• 2020: 458% increase

Current Market Sentiment

2012 年：成長 1,106% 2016 年：成長 2,302% 2020 年：成長 458% 當前市場情緒

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, believes that the recent halving presents a buying opportunity for investors. He argues that the supply crunch created by the halving will ultimately drive up цены on a longer-term horizon.

Bitwise資產管理公司首席投資長Matt Hougan認為，最近的減半為投資者提供了買入機會。他認為，從長遠來看，減半造成的供應緊縮最終將推高價格。

"The amount of new supply...coming into the market is being cut in half...I think big picture, that has to be good for price," Hougan said in an interview with CNBC Squawk Box.

霍根在接受 CNBC Squawk Box 採訪時表示：“進入市場的新供應量……正在減少一半……我認為從大局來看，這對價格來說肯定是有利的。”

Some analysts also see Bitcoin as a potential safe haven asset amidst geopolitical uncertainties, particularly those in the Middle East. Hougan noted that Bitcoin has historically performed well as a hedge against inflation and could serve a similar purpose in the face of geopolitical disruptions.

一些分析師也認為，在地緣政治不確定性（尤其是中東地區）的不確定性中，比特幣是一種潛在的避險資產。霍根指出，比特幣在歷史上作為通膨對沖工具表現良好，並且在面對地緣政治混亂時可以發揮類似的作用。

Possible Price Movements

可能的價格變動

The recent halving has reduced the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. As a result, some analysts have speculated on potential future price movements for Bitcoin.

最近的減半將區塊獎勵從 6.25 BTC 減少到 3.125 BTC。因此，一些分析師推測了比特幣未來潛在的價格走勢。

Historical data suggests that the price of Bitcoin may fluctuate in the initial months following the halving. However, if history repeats itself, a substantial price rally could be in store.

歷史數據表明，比特幣價格在減半後的最初幾個月可能會出現波動。然而，如果歷史重演，價格可能會大幅上漲。

For instance, after the 2020 halving, Bitcoin's price lingered for nine months before embarking on a 458% price surge. If a similar pattern emerges, Bitcoin's price could soar to around $345,000 by the first quarter of 2025.

例如，2020 年減半後，比特幣的價格徘徊了 9 個月，然後價格飆升了 458%。如果出現類似的模式，到 2025 年第一季度，比特幣的價格可能會飆升至 345,000 美元左右。

Alternatively, a more conservative estimate suggests a 130% price increase over the next year, which would put Bitcoin's price in the range of $150,000 by mid-2025.

或者，更保守的估計表明明年價格將上漲 130%，這將使比特幣的價格在 2025 年中期達到 15 萬美元。

Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, has predicted that Bitcoin could reach at least $170,000 by the end of the current market cycle.

SkyBridge Capital 創辦人 Anthony Scaramucci 預測，到當前市場週期結束時，比特幣的價格將至少達到 17 萬美元。

Cautionary Notes

注意事項

While the halving has historically been a bullish event for Bitcoin, it is crucial for investors to exercise caution and approach any investment decisions with prudence. The cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

雖然從歷史上看，減半對比特幣來說是一個看漲事件，但投資者保持謹慎並謹慎對待任何投資決策至關重要。加密貨幣市場本質上是不穩定的，過去的表現並不能保證未來的結果。

Furthermore, the impact of the halving on Bitcoin's price may be influenced by various factors, including macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and technological advancements.

此外，減半對比特幣價格的影響可能受到多種因素的影響，包括宏觀經濟狀況、監管發展和技術進步。

Investors should conduct thorough research and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.

投資者在做出任何投資決定之前應進行徹底的研究並尋求專業建議。