比特币减半：购买富矿还是市场幻象？

在比特币第四次减半之后，加密货币投资者正在预测其对比特币和更广泛的加密货币市场的影响。加密货币指数基金首席信息官 Matt Hougan 认为，由于由此产生的供应紧缩，减半提供了“买入新闻”的机会，并引用了减半事件后的历史价格反弹。减半减少了矿工的区块奖励，可能导致现有比特币的稀缺性和价值增加。尽管在之前的减半后立即出现波动，但从历史上看，比特币在这些事件发生后的一年内经历了显着的价格上涨。

Bitcoin Halving: A Buying Opportunity or a Market Gimmick?

比特币减半：买入机会还是市场噱头？

The long-anticipated fourth halving of Bitcoin, a landmark event that occurs approximately every four years, has now been completed. As the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Bitcoin's movements significantly impact the broader crypto ecosystem, making this event a subject of intense speculation and scrutiny for investors worldwide.

人们期待已久的比特币第四次减半，大约每四年发生一次的里程碑事件，现已完成。作为市值最大的加密货币，比特币的走势对更广泛的加密生态系统产生了重大影响，使这一事件成为全球投资者强烈猜测和审查的主题。

Understanding the Halving

了解减半

The halving refers to a predetermined reduction in the block reward granted to miners for validating transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain. This reward, which is received in Bitcoin, is designed to incentivize miners to maintain the network's security and integrity.

减半是指给予矿工验证比特币区块链交易的区块奖励的预定减少。这种以比特币形式获得的奖励旨在激励矿工维护网络的安全性和完整性。

With each halving, the amount of newly minted Bitcoin entering circulation is effectively halved. The theory behind this mechanism is that with a reduction in supply and no change in demand, the value of existing Bitcoin should increase.

每次减半，新铸造的进入流通的比特币数量实际上会减半。这种机制背后的理论是，在供应减少且需求不变的情况下，现有比特币的价值应该会增加。

Historical Patterns

历史模式

Past halving events have indeed been accompanied by substantial price rallies for Bitcoin. In the year following the previous three halvings, Bitcoin's price has experienced significant gains:

过去的减半事件确实伴随着比特币价格的大幅上涨。在前三次减半之后的一年里，比特币的价格经历了大幅上涨：

• 2012: 1,106% increase
• 2016: 2,302% increase
• 2020: 458% increase

Current Market Sentiment

2012 年：增长 1,106% 2016 年：增长 2,302% 2020 年：增长 458% 当前市场情绪

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, believes that the recent halving presents a buying opportunity for investors. He argues that the supply crunch created by the halving will ultimately drive up цены on a longer-term horizon.

Bitwise资产管理公司首席投资官Matt Hougan认为，最近的减半为投资者提供了买入机会。他认为，从长远来看，减半造成的供应紧缩最终将推高价格。

"The amount of new supply...coming into the market is being cut in half...I think big picture, that has to be good for price," Hougan said in an interview with CNBC Squawk Box.

霍根在接受 CNBC Squawk Box 采访时表示：“进入市场的新供应量……正在减少一半……我认为从大局来看，这对价格来说肯定是有利的。”

Some analysts also see Bitcoin as a potential safe haven asset amidst geopolitical uncertainties, particularly those in the Middle East. Hougan noted that Bitcoin has historically performed well as a hedge against inflation and could serve a similar purpose in the face of geopolitical disruptions.

一些分析师还认为，在地缘政治不确定性（尤其是中东地区）的不确定性中，比特币是一种潜在的避险资产。霍根指出，比特币在历史上作为通胀对冲工具表现良好，并且在面对地缘政治混乱时可以起到类似的作用。

Possible Price Movements

可能的价格变动

The recent halving has reduced the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. As a result, some analysts have speculated on potential future price movements for Bitcoin.

最近的减半将区块奖励从 6.25 BTC 减少到 3.125 BTC。因此，一些分析师推测了比特币未来潜在的价格走势。

Historical data suggests that the price of Bitcoin may fluctuate in the initial months following the halving. However, if history repeats itself, a substantial price rally could be in store.

历史数据表明，比特币价格在减半后的最初几个月可能会出现波动。然而，如果历史重演，价格可能会大幅上涨。

For instance, after the 2020 halving, Bitcoin's price lingered for nine months before embarking on a 458% price surge. If a similar pattern emerges, Bitcoin's price could soar to around $345,000 by the first quarter of 2025.

例如，2020 年减半后，比特币的价格徘徊了 9 个月，然后价格飙升了 458%。如果出现类似的模式，到 2025 年第一季度，比特币的价格可能会飙升至 345,000 美元左右。

Alternatively, a more conservative estimate suggests a 130% price increase over the next year, which would put Bitcoin's price in the range of $150,000 by mid-2025.

或者，更保守的估计表明明年价格将上涨 130%，这将使比特币的价格到 2025 年中期达到 15 万美元。

Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, has predicted that Bitcoin could reach at least $170,000 by the end of the current market cycle.

SkyBridge Capital 创始人安东尼·斯卡拉穆奇 (Anthony Scaramucci) 预测，到当前市场周期结束时，比特币的价格将至少达到 17 万美元。

Cautionary Notes

注意事项

While the halving has historically been a bullish event for Bitcoin, it is crucial for investors to exercise caution and approach any investment decisions with prudence. The cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

虽然从历史上看，减半对比特币来说是一个看涨事件，但投资者保持谨慎并谨慎对待任何投资决策至关重要。加密货币市场本质上是不稳定的，过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。

Furthermore, the impact of the halving on Bitcoin's price may be influenced by various factors, including macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and technological advancements.

此外，减半对比特币价格的影响可能受到多种因素的影响，包括宏观经济状况、监管发展和技术进步。

Investors should conduct thorough research and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.

投资者在做出任何投资决定之前应进行彻底的研究并寻求专业建议。