比特幣在2030年：猜測遊戲和市場現實

試圖將比特幣（BTC）的價格固定為2030年，這是一次狂野的旅程，這是一段迷宮，多種數學模型，專家猜測以及市場不可預測的本質。

Trying to nail down Bitcoin's (BTC) price for 2030 is a wild ride. It takes us through a maze of different math models, expert guesses, and the market's own unpredictable nature. The range of guesses is huge, and they're cooked up from all sorts of methods that look at old price moves, how fast people are starting to use it, big-picture money trends, and what makes Bitcoin special, especially its unchangeable, limited coin count.

試圖將比特幣（BTC）的價格降低2030年是一次狂野的旅程。它帶我們通過了不同的數學模型，專家猜測以及市場自己不可預測的本質。猜測的範圍是巨大的，它們是從各種觀察舊價格移動的方法中烹製的，人們開始使用它的速度，大型貨幣趨勢以及使比特幣變得特別的原因，尤其是其不可變化的，有限的硬幣計數。

Those guesses vary massively, from a low of around $140,000 in some models to Cathie Wood, founder of Ark Invest, suggesting a potential high of $1 million to $1.5 million by 2030.

這些猜測差異很大，從某些型號的低點到約140,000美元到Ark Invest的創始人Cathie Wood，這表明到2030年，潛在的高額至150萬美元。

Who's Saying What About Bitcoin's 2030 Price

誰在說比特幣的2030年價格

Several well-known figures and institutions have shared their predictions for Bitcoin’s price in 2030, presenting a diverse range of outlooks.

幾個著名的人物和機構在2030年分享了他們對比特幣價格的預測，展現了各種各樣的前景。

How They Come Up With These Numbers

他們如何提出這些數字

The techniques used to arrive at these predictions are varied and often combine different approaches to value investing, technical analysis, and fundamental analysis.

用於得出這些預測的技術是多種多樣的，並且通常結合了價值投資，技術分析和基本分析的不同方法。

Most upbeat price predictions assume that:

大多數樂觀的價格預測假設：

* Demand for Bitcoin will continue to rise rapidly.

*對比特幣的需求將繼續迅速增加。

* Greater numbers of everyday investors, large investment firms, corporations, and potentially even governments will be investing in Bitcoin.

*更多的日常投資者，大型投資公司，公司甚至政府將投資比特幣。

* Bitcoin’s scarcity will become an increasingly important factor as the total supply is limited to 21 million coins, and its mining rate will slow down with each halving event.

*比特幣的稀缺性將成為一個越來越重要的因素，因為總供應量限制為2100萬個硬幣，並且其採礦率將隨著每個減半事件而放緩。

* The current bull market in cryptocurrencies will continue.

*當前的加密貨幣市場將繼續進行。

* A large portion of the "lost" Bitcoin is permanently inaccessible, effectively reducing the circulating supply.

*“丟失”比特幣的很大一部分是永久無法訪問的，有效地減少了循環供應。

* Major macroeconomic trends will remain favorable for Bitcoin.

*主要的宏觀經濟趨勢對比特幣仍然有利。

* Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will be widely adopted by 2030.

*中央銀行數字貨幣（CBDC）將於2030年被廣泛採用。

* Significant technological advancements will occur within the Bitcoin network or Layer 2 solutions.

*在比特幣網絡或第2層解決方案中將發生重大的技術進步。

What Most Upbeat Guesses Assume

最樂觀的猜測假設

One thing most of the super-positive predictions have in common is they expect more and more people to want Bitcoin - from everyday folks to big investment firms, companies, and maybe even countries. The fact that there will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins and that its supply schedule is set in stone and open for anyone to see is a basic building block for almost every long-term price guess.

大多數超級陽性預測的共同點是，他們期望越來越多的人想要比特幣 - 從日常的人到大型投資公司，公司甚至國家。事實是，只有2100萬比特幣，並且其供應時間表被設定為石頭並供任何人開放，這是幾乎每個長期價格猜測的基本基礎。

A big reason for optimism you hear a lot is the idea that tons of money from institutions will be flowing into Bitcoin, especially through easily bought vehicles like Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Plus, many models assume Bitcoin will cement its reputation as a good way to hedge against inflation and a reliable store of wealth, maybe even better than gold.

您聽到很多樂觀的一個重要原因是，來自機構的大量資金將流向比特幣，尤其是通過易於購買的交易所交易基金（ETF）等易於購買的車輛。另外，許多模型都認為比特幣將其聲譽鞏固為對沖通貨膨脹和可靠的財富存儲的好方法，甚至比黃金更好。

While new laws and regulations are always a bit of a wildcard, lots of long-term guesses either quietly or openly expect them to change in ways that help, or at least don't badly hurt, Bitcoin's growth and use. That the Bitcoin network itself will keep running safely and smoothly, and get even better with new additions (Layer-2 solutions), is often an unspoken but super important assumption.

儘管新的法律和法規總是有點像通配符，但許多長期的猜測悄悄或公開期望它們會改變有幫助的方式，或者至少不會嚴重傷害，比特幣的成長和使用。比特幣網絡本身將保持安全，平穩運行，並通過新的添加（第2層解決方案）變得更好，通常是一個不言而喻的但非常重要的假設。

The Wide World of 2030 Guesses

2030年的廣闊世界

The variety of Bitcoin price predictions for 2030 is staggering, showcasing the vast uncertainty and diverse starting points of different predictive methods.

2030年的比特幣價格預測的種類令人震驚，展示了不同預測方法的巨大不確定性和不同的起點。

Bitcoin's Price Rollercoaster and the Halving Effect

比特幣的價格過山車和減半效果

Since Bitcoin's journey began in 2009, its price has been on a wild ride, with rapid surges and substantial drops, charting several clear boom and bust cycles. This volatility is a product of various factors, but the “halvings,” events programmed into Bitcoin to decrease the rate at which new coins are added to the system, play a significant role in how it's valued.

自比特幣的旅程始於2009年以來，其價格一直在狂野，迅速湧現和大量跌落，繪製了幾個清晰的繁榮和胸圍週期。這種波動率是各種因素的產物，但是“過度的”事件已編程為比特幣，以降低添加新硬幣的速率，在其價值中發揮重要作用。

Breaking Down Bitcoin's Price Swings:

分解比特幣的價格波動：

* Bitcoin's price history is a story of swift advances (bull markets) interrupted by deep declines (bear markets).

*比特幣的價格歷史是一個迅速進步（牛市）的故事，被深度下降（熊市）中斷。

* It's worth noting that some market watchers believe that each bull cycle is bringing smaller percentage gains, although the entire cryptocurrency domain is still relatively new and in the process of finding its footing.

*值得注意的是，一些市場觀察家認為，每個牛週期都會帶來較小的百分比增長，儘管整個加密貨幣域仍然相對較新，並且正在尋找其地位。

How Halvings Shake Things Up:

過度如何振作起來：

Bitcoin's halvings are a core part of its design. Approximately every four years, or after 210,000 blocks of transactions are mined, the reward that miners receive for verifying transactions is cut in half. This mechanism is intended to slow down the rate of Bitcoin's inflation and ensure that the total supply never exceeds 21 million coins. These events are often followed by price increases as they decrease the number of new Bitcoins entering circulation, potentially making them scarcer if demand remains stable or grows.

比特幣的中度是其設計的核心部分。大約每四年或在開採210,000塊交易之後，礦工獲得的驗證交易的獎勵將減少一半。該機制旨在降低比特幣通貨膨脹率的速​​度，並確保總供應不超過2100萬個硬幣。這些事件通常會隨著價格上漲而增加，因為它們減少了進入流通的新比特幣的數量，如果需求保持穩定或增長，可能會使它們變得稀缺。

Looking back at past halvings and what appeared to happen:

回顧過去的過度和似乎發生的事情：

* 2012: The first halving occurred in November 2012, reducing the block reward from 50 BTC to 2

* 2012年：第一次減半發生在2012年11月，將塊獎勵從50 BTC減少到2