比特币在2030年：猜测游戏和市场现实

试图将比特币（BTC）的价格固定为2030年，这是一次狂野的旅程，这是一段迷宫，多种数学模型，专家猜测以及市场不可预测的本质。

Trying to nail down Bitcoin's (BTC) price for 2030 is a wild ride. It takes us through a maze of different math models, expert guesses, and the market's own unpredictable nature. The range of guesses is huge, and they're cooked up from all sorts of methods that look at old price moves, how fast people are starting to use it, big-picture money trends, and what makes Bitcoin special, especially its unchangeable, limited coin count.

试图将比特币（BTC）的价格降低2030年是一次狂野的旅程。它带我们通过了不同的数学模型，专家猜测以及市场自己不可预测的本质。猜测的范围是巨大的，它们是从各种观察旧价格移动的方法中烹制的，人们开始使用它的速度，大型货币趋势以及使比特币变得特别的原因，尤其是其不可变化的，有限的硬币计数。

Those guesses vary massively, from a low of around $140,000 in some models to Cathie Wood, founder of Ark Invest, suggesting a potential high of $1 million to $1.5 million by 2030.

这些猜测差异很大，从某些型号的低点到约140,000美元到Ark Invest的创始人Cathie Wood，这表明到2030年，潜在的高额至150万美元。

Who's Saying What About Bitcoin's 2030 Price

谁在说比特币的2030年价格

Several well-known figures and institutions have shared their predictions for Bitcoin’s price in 2030, presenting a diverse range of outlooks.

几个著名的人物和机构在2030年分享了他们对比特币价格的预测，展现了各种各样的前景。

How They Come Up With These Numbers

他们如何提出这些数字

The techniques used to arrive at these predictions are varied and often combine different approaches to value investing, technical analysis, and fundamental analysis.

用于得出这些预测的技术是多种多样的，并且通常结合了价值投资，技术分析和基本分析的不同方法。

Most upbeat price predictions assume that:

大多数乐观的价格预测假设：

* Demand for Bitcoin will continue to rise rapidly.

*对比特币的需求将继续迅速增加。

* Greater numbers of everyday investors, large investment firms, corporations, and potentially even governments will be investing in Bitcoin.

*更多的日常投资者，大型投资公司，公司甚至政府将投资比特币。

* Bitcoin’s scarcity will become an increasingly important factor as the total supply is limited to 21 million coins, and its mining rate will slow down with each halving event.

*比特币的稀缺性将成为一个越来越重要的因素，因为总供应量限制为2100万个硬币，并且其采矿率将随着每个减半事件而放缓。

* The current bull market in cryptocurrencies will continue.

*当前的加密货币市场将继续进行。

* A large portion of the "lost" Bitcoin is permanently inaccessible, effectively reducing the circulating supply.

*“丢失”比特币的很大一部分是永久无法访问的，有效地减少了循环供应。

* Major macroeconomic trends will remain favorable for Bitcoin.

*主要的宏观经济趋势对比特币仍然有利。

* Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will be widely adopted by 2030.

*中央银行数字货币（CBDC）将于2030年被广泛采用。

* Significant technological advancements will occur within the Bitcoin network or Layer 2 solutions.

*在比特币网络或第2层解决方案中将发生重大的技术进步。

What Most Upbeat Guesses Assume

最乐观的猜测假设

One thing most of the super-positive predictions have in common is they expect more and more people to want Bitcoin - from everyday folks to big investment firms, companies, and maybe even countries. The fact that there will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins and that its supply schedule is set in stone and open for anyone to see is a basic building block for almost every long-term price guess.

大多数超级阳性预测的共同点是，他们期望越来越多的人想要比特币 - 从日常的人到大型投资公司，公司甚至国家。事实是，只有2100万比特币，并且其供应时间表被设定为石头并供任何人开放，这是几乎每个长期价格猜测的基本基础。

A big reason for optimism you hear a lot is the idea that tons of money from institutions will be flowing into Bitcoin, especially through easily bought vehicles like Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Plus, many models assume Bitcoin will cement its reputation as a good way to hedge against inflation and a reliable store of wealth, maybe even better than gold.

您听到很多乐观的一个重要原因是，来自机构的大量资金将流向比特币，尤其是通过易于购买的交易所交易基金（ETF）等易于购买的车辆。另外，许多模型都认为比特币将其声誉巩固为对冲通货膨胀和可靠的财富存储的好方法，甚至比黄金更好。

While new laws and regulations are always a bit of a wildcard, lots of long-term guesses either quietly or openly expect them to change in ways that help, or at least don't badly hurt, Bitcoin's growth and use. That the Bitcoin network itself will keep running safely and smoothly, and get even better with new additions (Layer-2 solutions), is often an unspoken but super important assumption.

尽管新的法律和法规总是有点像通配符，但许多长期的猜测悄悄或公开期望它们会改变有帮助的方式，或者至少不会严重伤害，比特币的成长和使用。比特币网络本身将保持安全，平稳运行，并通过新的添加（第2层解决方案）变得更好，通常是一个不言而喻的但非常重要的假设。

The Wide World of 2030 Guesses

2030年的广阔世界

The variety of Bitcoin price predictions for 2030 is staggering, showcasing the vast uncertainty and diverse starting points of different predictive methods.

2030年的比特币价格预测的种类令人震惊，展示了不同预测方法的巨大不确定性和不同的起点。

Bitcoin's Price Rollercoaster and the Halving Effect

比特币的价格过山车和减半效果

Since Bitcoin's journey began in 2009, its price has been on a wild ride, with rapid surges and substantial drops, charting several clear boom and bust cycles. This volatility is a product of various factors, but the “halvings,” events programmed into Bitcoin to decrease the rate at which new coins are added to the system, play a significant role in how it's valued.

自比特币的旅程始于2009年以来，其价格一直在狂野，迅速涌现和大量跌落，绘制了几个清晰的繁荣和胸围周期。这种波动率是各种因素的产物，但是“过度的”事件已编程为比特币，以降低添加新硬币的速率，在其价值中发挥重要作用。

Breaking Down Bitcoin's Price Swings:

分解比特币的价格波动：

* Bitcoin's price history is a story of swift advances (bull markets) interrupted by deep declines (bear markets).

*比特币的价格历史是一个迅速进步（牛市）的故事，被深度下降（熊市）中断。

* It's worth noting that some market watchers believe that each bull cycle is bringing smaller percentage gains, although the entire cryptocurrency domain is still relatively new and in the process of finding its footing.

*值得注意的是，一些市场观察家认为，每个牛周期都会带来较小的百分比增长，尽管整个加密货币域仍然相对较新，并且正在寻找其地位。

How Halvings Shake Things Up:

过度如何振作起来：

Bitcoin's halvings are a core part of its design. Approximately every four years, or after 210,000 blocks of transactions are mined, the reward that miners receive for verifying transactions is cut in half. This mechanism is intended to slow down the rate of Bitcoin's inflation and ensure that the total supply never exceeds 21 million coins. These events are often followed by price increases as they decrease the number of new Bitcoins entering circulation, potentially making them scarcer if demand remains stable or grows.

比特币的中度是其设计的核心部分。大约每四年或在开采210,000块交易之后，矿工获得的验证交易的奖励将减少一半。该机制旨在降低比特币通货膨胀率的速​​度，并确保总供应不超过2100万个硬币。这些事件通常会随着价格上涨而增加，因为它们减少了进入流通的新比特币的数量，如果需求保持稳定或增长，可能会使它们变得稀缺。

Looking back at past halvings and what appeared to happen:

回顾过去的过度和似乎发生的事情：

* 2012: The first halving occurred in November 2012, reducing the block reward from 50 BTC to 2

* 2012年：第一次减半发生在2012年11月，将块奖励从50 BTC减少到2