比特幣需要大幅提高其採用率才能挑戰美元

在 X 上的一篇新文章中，分析師 Willy Woo 討論了金融界最近對原始加密貨幣的期望。

A recent analysis by Willy Woo suggests that the financial world anticipates Bitcoin's growth to astronomical levels, ultimately challenging the US Dollar's dominance.

Willy Woo 最近的一項分析表明，金融界預計比特幣將增長至天文數字，最終挑戰美元的主導地位。

According to Woo, three key expectations are driving this anticipation:

Woo 表示，三個主要期望推動了這一預期：

- A tenfold increase in BTC's value, bringing it to the $10 trillion market capitalization threshold.

- BTC 的價值成長了十倍，使其市值達到 10 兆美元的門檻。

- Bitcoin's emergence as a rival to the USD in terms of size and scale.

- 比特幣在規模和規模上成為美元的競爭對手。

- Establishment of BTC as a reserve asset, a status currently held by the US Dollar.

- 將比特幣確立為儲備資產，目前由美元持有。

To gauge the timeframe for these expectations, Woo examines cryptocurrency's "adoption" curve. Comparing Bitcoin's adoption to that of the internet, Woo presents a chart that showcases the correlation between the values on the curve and the percentage of the global population using the asset at any given time.

為了衡量這些預期的時間框架，Woo 檢視了加密貨幣的「採用」曲線。將比特幣的採用與互聯網的採用進行比較，Woo 提供了一張圖表，顯示了曲線上的值與在任何給定時間使用該資產的全球人口百分比之間的相關性。

Woo's analysis incorporates data from various studies, including Glassnode's clustering of addresses into "entities" and Cambridge's statistics on verified exchange users, to determine this curve.

Woo 的分析結合了各種研究的數據，包括 Glassnode 將地址聚類為「實體」以及劍橋對經過驗證的交易所用戶的統計數據，以確定這條曲線。

Based on this analysis, Bitcoin's user count currently equates to approximately 4.7% of the world's population, according to Woo's model.

根據這項分析，根據 Woo 的模型，比特幣的用戶數量目前約佔世界人口的 4.7%。

If the internet's s-curve serves as an indication, BTC's user count could still be in its early stages of acceleration.

如果以網路的 S 曲線為指標，比特幣的使用者數量可能仍處於加速的早期階段。

To rival the USD, Woo anticipates that cryptocurrency adoption will need to reach the 25-40% range, which could occur sometime in the 2030s.

為了與美元競爭，Woo 預計加密貨幣的採用率需要達到 25-40% 的範圍，這可能會在 2030 年代的某個時候發生。

The trajectory of Bitcoin's adoption curve in the coming years remains to be observed, and it's unclear whether it will mirror the historical pattern seen with the internet.

未來幾年比特幣採用曲線的軌跡仍有待觀察，目前尚不清楚它是否會反映網路的歷史模式。

BTC Price

比特幣價格

Bitcoin began the week with a drop below the $59,000 level, but the asset has since recovered, trading at over $61,400 at the moment. However, it remains to be seen whether this retracement will continue or if bearish pressure will return soon.

比特幣本周初跌破 59,000 美元的水平，但此後該資產已回升，目前交易價格超過 61,400 美元。然而，這種回調是否會持續，或者看跌壓力是否會很快回歸，還有待觀察。