比特币需要大幅提高其采用率才能挑战美元

在 X 上的一篇新文章中，分析师 Willy Woo 讨论了金融界最近对原始加密货币的期望。

A recent analysis by Willy Woo suggests that the financial world anticipates Bitcoin's growth to astronomical levels, ultimately challenging the US Dollar's dominance.

Willy Woo 最近的一项分析表明，金融界预计比特币将增长至天文数字，最终挑战美元的主导地位。

According to Woo, three key expectations are driving this anticipation:

Woo 表示，三个主要期望推动了这一预期：

- A tenfold increase in BTC's value, bringing it to the $10 trillion market capitalization threshold.

- BTC 的价值增长了十倍，使其市值达到 10 万亿美元的门槛。

- Bitcoin's emergence as a rival to the USD in terms of size and scale.

- 比特币在规模和规模上成为美元的竞争对手。

- Establishment of BTC as a reserve asset, a status currently held by the US Dollar.

- 将比特币确立为储备资产，目前由美元持有。

To gauge the timeframe for these expectations, Woo examines cryptocurrency's "adoption" curve. Comparing Bitcoin's adoption to that of the internet, Woo presents a chart that showcases the correlation between the values on the curve and the percentage of the global population using the asset at any given time.

为了衡量这些预期的时间框架，Woo 检查了加密货币的“采用”曲线。将比特币的采用与互联网的采用进行比较，Woo 提供了一张图表，显示了曲线上的值与在任何给定时间使用该资产的全球人口百分比之间的相关性。

Woo's analysis incorporates data from various studies, including Glassnode's clustering of addresses into "entities" and Cambridge's statistics on verified exchange users, to determine this curve.

Woo 的分析结合了各种研究的数据，包括 Glassnode 将地址聚类为“实体”以及剑桥对经过验证的交易所用户的统计数据，以确定这条曲线。

Based on this analysis, Bitcoin's user count currently equates to approximately 4.7% of the world's population, according to Woo's model.

根据这一分析，根据 Woo 的模型，比特币的用户数量目前约占世界人口的 4.7%。

If the internet's s-curve serves as an indication, BTC's user count could still be in its early stages of acceleration.

如果以互联网的 S 曲线为指标，比特币的用户数量可能仍处于加速的早期阶段。

To rival the USD, Woo anticipates that cryptocurrency adoption will need to reach the 25-40% range, which could occur sometime in the 2030s.

为了与美元竞争，Woo 预计加密货币的采用率需要达到 25-40% 的范围，这可能会在 2030 年代的某个时候发生。

The trajectory of Bitcoin's adoption curve in the coming years remains to be observed, and it's unclear whether it will mirror the historical pattern seen with the internet.

未来几年比特币采用曲线的轨迹仍有待观察，目前还不清楚它是否会反映互联网的历史模式。

BTC Price

比特币价格

Bitcoin began the week with a drop below the $59,000 level, but the asset has since recovered, trading at over $61,400 at the moment. However, it remains to be seen whether this retracement will continue or if bearish pressure will return soon.

比特币本周初跌破 59,000 美元的水平，但此后该资产已回升，目前交易价格超过 61,400 美元。然而，这种回调是否会持续，或者看跌压力是否会很快回归，还有待观察。