比特幣預測：渣打銀行警告稱，比特幣可能進一步跌至 5 萬美元

渣打銀行預測，比特幣的價值可能會跌至 5 萬美元，理由是 ETF 流出量下降和美國流動性減少。儘管出現暫時的挫折，該公司仍保持長期看漲立場，預計今年股價可能飆升至 15 萬美元。最近的減半事件和投資者採用率的增加支持了這種積極的前景，表明回調至 50,000 美元可能只會為長期的進一步增長鋪平道路。

Bitcoin Primed for Further Decline, May Reach $50,000, Standard Chartered Cautions

渣打銀行警告比特幣將進一步下跌，可能達到 5 萬美元

In a comprehensive research report, financial services giant Standard Chartered has issued a bearish prognosis for Bitcoin, projecting a potential decline towards $50,000. This downward trajectory is attributed to a combination of diminishing exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and dwindling US liquidity levels.

在一份綜合研究報告中，金融服務巨頭渣打銀行對比特幣做出了悲觀預測，預計其價格可能會跌至 5 萬美元。這種下行軌跡是由於交易所交易基金（ETF）流入量減少和美國流動性水準下降共同造成的。

ETF Outflows and Macroeconomic Headwinds

ETF 資金流出和宏觀經濟逆風

The cryptocurrency's recent slide has been exacerbated by a persistent outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States. These funds, which initially fueled the rally earlier this year, have now witnessed five consecutive days of outflows. Notably, the current Bitcoin price has fallen below the average purchase price of these ETFs, raising concerns about potential liquidations.

美國比特幣現貨 ETF 的持續流出加劇了加密貨幣近期的下滑。這些基金最初推動了今年稍早的上漲，但現在已經連續五天流出。值得注意的是，目前的比特幣價格已低於這些 ETF 的平均購買價格，引發了人們對潛在清算的擔憂。

Furthermore, Standard Chartered highlights the unsettling headlines emerging from Hong Kong on Tuesday, where six Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs were launched amid lackluster trading volumes and limited net asset positions.

此外，渣打銀行還強調了周二香港出現的令人不安的頭條新聞，在交易量低迷和淨資產頭寸有限的情況下，香港推出了六隻比特幣和以太坊現貨 ETF。

Waning US Liquidity

美國流動性減弱

Complicating matters is the ongoing decline in US liquidity measures, which have exhibited a steady downward trend since mid-April. Standard Chartered emphasizes the critical role of liquidity, particularly in the context of strong US inflation data and diminished expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

讓事情變得更加複雜的是美國流動性指標的持續下降，自4月中旬以來一直呈現穩定下降的趨勢。渣打銀行強調流動性的關鍵作用，特別是在美國通膨數據強勁和聯準會降息預期減弱的背景下。

Bullish Outlook Intact

看漲前景完好無損

Despite these bearish projections, Standard Chartered maintains its long-held bullish stance on Bitcoin, forecasting a surge to $150,000 by year-end. This optimism is partly fueled by the recent halving event, which effectively reduces Bitcoin's supply, potentially offsetting the impact of lower ETF inflows.

儘管有這些悲觀預測，渣打銀行仍維持其長期以來對比特幣的看漲立場，預計到年底比特幣價格將飆升至 15 萬美元。這種樂觀情緒在一定程度上是由最近的減半事件推動的，減半事件有效減少了比特幣的供應，可能抵​​消 ETF 流入減少的影響。

Halving Event and Investor Confidence

減半事件與投資者信心

Standard Chartered's Head of FX Research, Geoff Kendrick, recently reaffirmed the $150,000 price target despite macroeconomic challenges. He attributed this unwavering confidence to Bitcoin's halving event and the growing adoption by investors, suggesting that a correction to $50,000, if it were to occur, would be followed by a subsequent surge.

儘管面臨宏觀經濟挑戰，渣打銀行外匯研究主管 Geoff Kendrick 最近仍重申了 15 萬美元的目標價。他將這種堅定不移的信心歸因於比特幣減半事件和投資者越來越多的採用，這表明如果出現回調至 5 萬美元的情況，隨後將出現隨後的飆升。

Contrarian View

逆向觀點

Crypto enthusiast Mike Novogratz has expressed a more optimistic outlook, asserting that Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $50,000 again. He contends that the recent rally is driven primarily by investor adoption rather than macroeconomic factors.

加密貨幣愛好者 Mike Novogratz 表達了更樂觀的前景，聲稱比特幣不太可能再次跌破 50,000 美元。他認為，最近的反彈主要是由投資者的採用推動的，而不是宏觀經濟因素。

Conclusion

結論

Standard Chartered's research presents a cautionary tale for investors, highlighting potential headwinds and downward pressure on Bitcoin's price. However, the firm's long-term bullish outlook remains intact, supported by the halving event and the growing acceptance of Bitcoin as an investment vehicle. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, investors are advised to carefully monitor both fundamental and technical factors to navigate its inherent volatility.

渣打銀行的研究為投資者敲響了警鐘，強調了比特幣價格的潛在阻力和下行壓力。然而，在減半事件和人們越來越接受比特幣作為投資工具的支撐下，該公司的長期看漲前景仍然完好無損。隨著加密貨幣市場的不斷發展，建議投資者仔細監控基本面和技術因素，以應對其固有的波動性。