比特币预测：渣打银行警告称，比特币可能进一步跌至 5 万美元

渣打银行预测，比特币的价值可能会跌至 50,000 美元，理由是 ETF 流出量下降和美国流动性减少。尽管出现暂时的挫折，该公司仍保持长期看涨立场，预计今年股价可能飙升至 150,000 美元。最近的减半事件和投资者采用率的增加支持了这种积极的前景，表明回调至 50,000 美元可能只会为长期的进一步增长铺平道路。

Bitcoin Primed for Further Decline, May Reach $50,000, Standard Chartered Cautions

渣打银行警告比特币将进一步下跌，可能达到 50,000 美元

In a comprehensive research report, financial services giant Standard Chartered has issued a bearish prognosis for Bitcoin, projecting a potential decline towards $50,000. This downward trajectory is attributed to a combination of diminishing exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and dwindling US liquidity levels.

在一份综合研究报告中，金融服务巨头渣打银行对比特币做出了悲观预测，预计其价格可能会跌至 50,000 美元。这种下行轨迹是由于交易所交易基金（ETF）流入量减少和美国流动性水平下降共同造成的。

ETF Outflows and Macroeconomic Headwinds

ETF 资金流出和宏观经济逆风

The cryptocurrency's recent slide has been exacerbated by a persistent outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States. These funds, which initially fueled the rally earlier this year, have now witnessed five consecutive days of outflows. Notably, the current Bitcoin price has fallen below the average purchase price of these ETFs, raising concerns about potential liquidations.

美国比特币现货 ETF 的持续流出加剧了加密货币近期的下滑。这些基金最初推动了今年早些时候的上涨，但现在已经连续五天流出。值得注意的是，目前的比特币价格已低于这些 ETF 的平均购买价格，引发了人们对潜在清算的担忧。

Furthermore, Standard Chartered highlights the unsettling headlines emerging from Hong Kong on Tuesday, where six Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs were launched amid lackluster trading volumes and limited net asset positions.

此外，渣打银行还强调了周二香港出现的令人不安的头条新闻，在交易量低迷和净资产头寸有限的情况下，香港推出了六只比特币和以太坊现货 ETF。

Waning US Liquidity

美国流动性减弱

Complicating matters is the ongoing decline in US liquidity measures, which have exhibited a steady downward trend since mid-April. Standard Chartered emphasizes the critical role of liquidity, particularly in the context of strong US inflation data and diminished expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

让事情变得更加复杂的是美国流动性指标的持续下降，自4月中旬以来一直呈现稳步下降的趋势。渣打银行强调流动性的关键作用，特别是在美国通胀数据强劲和美联储降息预期减弱的背景下。

Bullish Outlook Intact

看涨前景完好无损

Despite these bearish projections, Standard Chartered maintains its long-held bullish stance on Bitcoin, forecasting a surge to $150,000 by year-end. This optimism is partly fueled by the recent halving event, which effectively reduces Bitcoin's supply, potentially offsetting the impact of lower ETF inflows.

尽管有这些悲观预测，渣打银行仍维持其长期以来对比特币的看涨立场，预计到年底比特币价格将飙升至 15 万美元。这种乐观情绪在一定程度上是由最近的减半事件推动的，减半事件有效减少了比特币的供应，可能抵消 ETF 流入减少的影响。

Halving Event and Investor Confidence

减半事件与投资者信心

Standard Chartered's Head of FX Research, Geoff Kendrick, recently reaffirmed the $150,000 price target despite macroeconomic challenges. He attributed this unwavering confidence to Bitcoin's halving event and the growing adoption by investors, suggesting that a correction to $50,000, if it were to occur, would be followed by a subsequent surge.

尽管面临宏观经济挑战，渣打银行外汇研究主管 Geoff Kendrick 最近仍重申了 15 万美元的目标价。他将这种坚定不移的信心归因于比特币减半事件和投资者越来越多的采用，这表明如果出现回调至 50,000 美元的情况，随后将出现随后的飙升。

Contrarian View

逆向观点

Crypto enthusiast Mike Novogratz has expressed a more optimistic outlook, asserting that Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $50,000 again. He contends that the recent rally is driven primarily by investor adoption rather than macroeconomic factors.

加密货币爱好者 Mike Novogratz 表达了更为乐观的前景，声称比特币不太可能再次跌破 50,000 美元。他认为，最近的反弹主要是由投资者的采用推动的，而不是宏观经济因素。

Conclusion

结论

Standard Chartered's research presents a cautionary tale for investors, highlighting potential headwinds and downward pressure on Bitcoin's price. However, the firm's long-term bullish outlook remains intact, supported by the halving event and the growing acceptance of Bitcoin as an investment vehicle. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, investors are advised to carefully monitor both fundamental and technical factors to navigate its inherent volatility.

渣打银行的研究为投资者敲响了警钟，强调了比特币价格的潜在阻力和下行压力。然而，在减半事件和人们越来越接受比特币作为投资工具的支撑下，该公司的长期看涨前景依然完好。随着加密货币市场的不断发展，建议投资者仔细监控基本面和技术因素，以应对其固有的波动性。