比特幣的進化：加密專家重新思考舊理論

傳統比特幣週期死了嗎？在機構採用和市場轉變中，加密專家正在重新評估舊理論。深入了解新景觀。

Bitcoin's Evolution: Crypto Experts Rethink Old Theories

比特幣的進化：加密專家重新思考舊理論

The world of Bitcoin is constantly evolving, and recent shifts in market behavior have prompted crypto experts to question long-held theories. The old patterns may no longer apply. Let's dive into what's happening and what it means for investors.

比特幣的世界在不斷發展，市場行為的最新變化促使加密專家質疑已長期以來的理論。舊圖案可能不再適用。讓我們深入了解正在發生的事情以及對投資者的意義。

The Death of the Four-Year Cycle?

四年周期的死亡？

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, has publicly apologized for his recent Bitcoin predictions, admitting that the traditional four-year bull and bear cycle, driven by whale accumulation and retail investor behavior, is outdated. "Bitcoin cycle theory is dead," he stated. "My predictions were based on it—buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds."

CryptoQuant首席執行官Ki Young Ju為他最近的比特幣預測公開道歉，他承認，在鯨魚積累和散戶投資者行為的驅動下，傳統的四年公牛和熊週期已經過時。他說：“比特幣週期理論已經死了。” “我的預測是基於它的 - 當鯨魚累積時，零售業加入時出售。但是這種模式不再成立。”

Previously, whales would sell to retail investors, creating liquidity. Now, large crypto holders are transferring assets to institutional treasury companies and long-term investment funds. This fundamental change necessitates new analytical frameworks.

以前，鯨魚會出售給散戶投資者，從而產生流動性。現在，大型加密貨幣持有人正在將資產轉移到機構財政公司和長期投資基金中。這種基本變化需要新的分析框架。

Institutional Adoption: A Game Changer

機構採用：改變遊戲規則的人

Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) recently disclosed a massive $2 billion Bitcoin acquisition, signaling a significant shift in the crypto landscape. This move underscores the growing influence of institutional players and political backing in the crypto market.

特朗普媒體與技術集團（TMTG）最近透露了大量20億美元的比特幣收購，這表明加密貨幣景觀發生了重大變化。這一舉動強調了機構參與者和加密貨幣市場中政治支持的日益增長的影響。

As macro analyst EndGame Macro noted, "No one spends $2 billion on an ultra-volatile asset unless they’re betting on a shift in the entire liquidity regime." This bold bet suggests a belief that rate cuts are coming, the dollar is heading for dilution, and Bitcoin will be a major beneficiary.

正如宏分析師最終宏觀宏指出的那樣：“除非他們下注整個流動性制度的轉變，否則任何人都沒有花20億美元在超揮發性資產上。”這個大膽的下注表明，人們相信降低利率即將到來，美元正在稀釋，比特幣將是主要的受益人。

Short-Term Volatility vs. Long-Term Sentiment

短期波動與長期情緒

Despite positive long term sentiments, Bitcoin recently experienced a dip, falling 2–3% after Galaxy Digital moved billions to various exchanges, sparking fears of a sell-off. This transfer triggered over $700 million in long position liquidations, highlighting the market's sensitivity to large movements.

儘管長期的情緒積極，但比特幣最近經歷了下跌，在Galaxy Digital將數十億美元轉移到各種交流之後，比特幣下降了2-3％，這引發了人們對拋售的擔憂。這種轉會觸發了超過7億美元的長位置清算，突出了市場對大型運動的敏感性。

However, experts like crypto analyst T suggest that these movements are likely routine portfolio rebalancing, not a sign of weakness. Institutional interest remains strong, with Bitcoin ETFs continuing to see steady inflows. It’s crucial to distinguish between short-term volatility and long-term trends.

但是，像加密分析師（Crypto Analyst）這樣的專家表明，這些運動可能是常規的投資組合重新平衡，而不是虛弱的跡象。機構興趣仍然很大，比特幣ETF繼續看到穩定的流入。區分短期波動和長期趨勢至關重要。

A New Era for Bitcoin Analysis

比特幣分析的新時代

The traditional Bitcoin halving cycle may be losing its relevance as nation-state players, trillion-dollar asset managers, and even presidents make macro bets. The game is changing, and analysts need to adapt their strategies accordingly.

傳統的比特幣減半週期可能會失去其作為民族國家參與者，萬億美元資產經理的相關性，甚至總統都會成為宏觀賭注。遊戲正在發生變化，分析師需要相應地調整其策略。

What Should You Do?

你該怎麼辦？

Given the evolving landscape, it's crucial for investors to consider multiple perspectives and adapt analytical models. As participation and adoption increase, remain open to evolving trends. Don't rely solely on outdated theories; instead, focus on data-driven insights and consider the broader macroeconomic factors influencing the market.

考慮到不斷發展的景觀，投資者要考慮多種觀點並適應分析模型至關重要。隨著參與和採用的增加，對不斷發展的趨勢保持開放。不要僅僅依靠過時的理論；相反，專注於數據驅動的見解，並考慮影響市場的更廣泛的宏觀經濟因素。

So, what's the takeaway? The crypto world is a wild ride, full of surprises and unexpected turns. Just when you think you've got it figured out, something new comes along to shake things up. Buckle up, stay informed, and remember, in the world of Bitcoin, the only constant is change!

那麼，收穫是什麼？加密世界是一個狂野的旅程，充滿了驚喜和意外的轉變。就在您認為自己已經弄清楚它時，出現了一些新的東西來振作起來。扣緊，保持知情，並記住，在比特幣的世界中，唯一的常數就是變化！