比特币的进化：加密专家重新思考旧理论

传统比特币周期死了吗？在机构采用和市场转变中，加密专家正在重新评估旧理论。深入了解新景观。

Bitcoin's Evolution: Crypto Experts Rethink Old Theories

比特币的进化：加密专家重新思考旧理论

The world of Bitcoin is constantly evolving, and recent shifts in market behavior have prompted crypto experts to question long-held theories. The old patterns may no longer apply. Let's dive into what's happening and what it means for investors.

比特币的世界在不断发展，市场行为的最新变化促使加密专家质疑已长期以来的理论。旧图案可能不再适用。让我们深入了解正在发生的事情以及对投资者的意义。

The Death of the Four-Year Cycle?

四年周期的死亡？

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, has publicly apologized for his recent Bitcoin predictions, admitting that the traditional four-year bull and bear cycle, driven by whale accumulation and retail investor behavior, is outdated. "Bitcoin cycle theory is dead," he stated. "My predictions were based on it—buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds."

CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju为他最近的比特币预测公开道歉，他承认，在鲸鱼积累和散户投资者行为的驱动下，传统的四年公牛和熊周期已经过时。他说：“比特币周期理论已经死了。” “我的预测是基于它的 - 当鲸鱼累积时，零售业加入时出售。但是这种模式不再成立。”

Previously, whales would sell to retail investors, creating liquidity. Now, large crypto holders are transferring assets to institutional treasury companies and long-term investment funds. This fundamental change necessitates new analytical frameworks.

以前，鲸鱼会出售给散户投资者，从而产生流动性。现在，大型加密货币持有人正在将资产转移到机构财政公司和长期投资基金中。这种基本变化需要新的分析框架。

Institutional Adoption: A Game Changer

机构采用：改变游戏规则的人

Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) recently disclosed a massive $2 billion Bitcoin acquisition, signaling a significant shift in the crypto landscape. This move underscores the growing influence of institutional players and political backing in the crypto market.

特朗普媒体与技术集团（TMTG）最近透露了大量20亿美元的比特币收购，这表明加密货币景观发生了重大变化。这一举动强调了机构参与者和加密货币市场中政治支持的日益增长的影响。

As macro analyst EndGame Macro noted, "No one spends $2 billion on an ultra-volatile asset unless they’re betting on a shift in the entire liquidity regime." This bold bet suggests a belief that rate cuts are coming, the dollar is heading for dilution, and Bitcoin will be a major beneficiary.

正如宏分析师最终宏观宏指出的那样：“除非他们下注整个流动性制度的转变，否则任何人都没有花20亿美元在超挥发性资产上。”这个大胆的下注表明，人们相信降低利率即将到来，美元正在稀释，比特币将是主要的受益人。

Short-Term Volatility vs. Long-Term Sentiment

短期波动与长期情绪

Despite positive long term sentiments, Bitcoin recently experienced a dip, falling 2–3% after Galaxy Digital moved billions to various exchanges, sparking fears of a sell-off. This transfer triggered over $700 million in long position liquidations, highlighting the market's sensitivity to large movements.

尽管长期的情绪积极，但比特币最近经历了下跌，在Galaxy Digital将数十亿美元转移到各种交流之后，比特币下降了2-3％，这引发了人们对抛售的担忧。这种转会触发了超过7亿美元的长位置清算，突出了市场对大型运动的敏感性。

However, experts like crypto analyst T suggest that these movements are likely routine portfolio rebalancing, not a sign of weakness. Institutional interest remains strong, with Bitcoin ETFs continuing to see steady inflows. It’s crucial to distinguish between short-term volatility and long-term trends.

但是，像加密分析师（Crypto Analyst）这样的专家表明，这些运动可能是常规的投资组合重新平衡，而不是虚弱的迹象。机构兴趣仍然很大，比特币ETF继续看到稳定的流入。区分短期波动和长期趋势至关重要。

A New Era for Bitcoin Analysis

比特币分析的新时代

The traditional Bitcoin halving cycle may be losing its relevance as nation-state players, trillion-dollar asset managers, and even presidents make macro bets. The game is changing, and analysts need to adapt their strategies accordingly.

传统的比特币减半周期可能会失去其作为民族国家参与者，万亿美元资产经理的相关性，甚至总统都会成为宏观赌注。游戏正在发生变化，分析师需要相应地调整其策略。

What Should You Do?

你该怎么办？

Given the evolving landscape, it's crucial for investors to consider multiple perspectives and adapt analytical models. As participation and adoption increase, remain open to evolving trends. Don't rely solely on outdated theories; instead, focus on data-driven insights and consider the broader macroeconomic factors influencing the market.

考虑到不断发展的景观，投资者要考虑多种观点并适应分析模型至关重要。随着参与和采用的增加，对不断发展的趋势保持开放。不要仅仅依靠过时的理论；相反，专注于数据驱动的见解，并考虑影响市场的更广泛的宏观经济因素。

So, what's the takeaway? The crypto world is a wild ride, full of surprises and unexpected turns. Just when you think you've got it figured out, something new comes along to shake things up. Buckle up, stay informed, and remember, in the world of Bitcoin, the only constant is change!

那么，收获是什么？加密世界是一个狂野的旅程，充满了惊喜和意外的转变。就在您认为自己已经弄清楚它时，出现了一些新的东西来振作起来。扣紧，保持知情，并记住，在比特币的世界中，唯一的常数就是变化！