比特幣 ETF：流動性和波動性的新時代

美國證券交易委員會（SEC）最近批准了額外的比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）選擇權，這在加密貨幣世界中引起了連鎖反應

The recent approval of several new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has sparked discussions within the cryptocurrency community regarding the implications for Bitcoin’s future. While there seems to be a consensus on these new options significantly enhancing market liquidity, opinions diverge sharply when it comes to the impact on volatility and price trends.

美國證券交易委員會（SEC）最近批准了幾隻新的現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF），引發了加密貨幣社群內關於比特幣未來影響的討論。儘管人們似乎一致認為這些新選擇將顯著增強市場流動性，但在談到對波動性和價格趨勢的影響時，意見分歧很大。

The SEC made a landmark decision on October 18, 2024, to approve several new spot Bitcoin ETFs to be traded on prominent exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe). Among the newly authorized products are Fidelity’s BTC fund (FBTC) and ARK 21Shares’ ARKB, available on the NYSE American. Additionally, Cboe will offer options for Grayscale’s GBTC, along with mini Bitcoin options and Bitwise’s BTIB. This decision not only marks a significant step for institutional investment in Bitcoin but also could reshape the landscape of cryptocurrency trading.

美國證券交易委員會(SEC) 於2024 年10 月18 日做出了一項具有里程碑意義的決定，批准幾款新的現貨比特幣ETF 在紐約證券交易所(NYSE) 和芝加哥期權交易所(Cboe)等知名交易所進行交易。新授權的產品包括富達 (Fidelity) 的 BTC 基金 (FBTC) 和 ARK 21Shares 的 ARKB（在紐約證券交易所美國證券交易所上市）。此外，Cboe 還將提供 Grayscale 的 GBTC 選擇權、迷你比特幣選擇權和 Bitwise 的 BTIB。這項決定不僅標誌著機構投資比特幣邁出了重要一步，而且可能重塑加密貨幣交易的格局。

One of the most promising aspects of the SEC’s recent approvals is the anticipated boost in liquidity within the Bitcoin market. Enhanced liquidity allows for smoother transactions, enabling traders to buy and sell Bitcoin without significantly impacting its price. With Bitcoin ETFs making the cryptocurrency more accessible to a broader range of investors, the influx of capital from institutional players is expected to deepen market participation.

美國證券交易委員會最近批准的最有希望的方面之一是比特幣市場流動性的預期增加。增強的流動性使交易更加順暢，使交易者能夠買賣比特幣，而不會顯著影響其價格。隨著比特幣 ETF 使更廣泛的投資者更容易獲得加密貨幣，機構參與者的資本湧入預計將加深市場參與。

As investors gain access to these new financial instruments, analysts believe it could encourage a wider array of participants—both institutional and retail—to engage with Bitcoin, fostering a more vibrant trading environment. This increased liquidity may also lead to enhanced price discovery, where the true market value of Bitcoin can be more accurately determined.

隨著投資者獲得這些新的金融工具，分析師認為，它可以鼓勵更廣泛的參與者（包括機構和散戶）參與比特幣，從而創造一個更有活力的交易環境。流動性的增加也可能導致價格發現的增強，從而可以更準確地確定比特幣的真實市場價值。

Despite the positive outlook on liquidity, the potential impact on Bitcoin’s volatility is far less clear. Analysts find themselves sharply divided on whether the approval of these ETFs will lead to greater stability or increased price fluctuations.

儘管流動性前景樂觀，但對比特幣波動性的潛在影響尚不清楚。分析師發現，對於這些 ETF 的批准是否會帶來更大的穩定性或增加價格波動，他們存在嚴重分歧。

Prominent Bitcoin investor Anthony Pompliano has voiced concerns that the influx of institutional capital could lead to decreased volatility in the market. Following the approval of BlackRock’s IBIT options, he noted, “The approval of options will bring more institutional adoption of the asset, which will lower volatility and limit the explosive upside of Bitcoin.” Pompliano’s view suggests that as institutional players enter the market, they may introduce stabilizing forces that could dampen extreme price movements.

著名比特幣投資者 Anthony Pompliano 表示擔心機構資本的流入可能會導致市場波動性下降。在貝萊德的 IBIT 期權獲得批准後，他指出，“期權的批准將帶來更多機構對該資產的採用，這將降低波動性並限制比特幣的爆炸性上漲。”龐普里亞諾的觀點表明，隨著機構參與者進入市場，他們可能會引入穩定力量，抑制極端的價格波動。

Conversely, analysts like Jeff Park from Bitwise argue that the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs could actually heighten volatility. Park believes that the presence of institutional market makers could result in a more reactive market. “The introduction of options could lead to increased volatility as institutional market makers are likely to be short gamma,” he explained. This means that as prices rise, these traders may be forced to buy more Bitcoin, and as prices fall, they might have to sell, thus amplifying price swings in both directions.

相反，Bitwise 的 Jeff Park 等分析師認為，比特幣 ETF 的引入實際上可能會加劇波動性。 Park 認為，機構做市商的存在可能會導致市場更加活躍。 「選擇權的引入可能會導致波動性增加，因為機構做市商可能會做空伽瑪，」他解釋道。這意味著，隨著價格上漲，這些交易者可能被迫購買更多比特幣，而隨著價格下跌，他們可能不得不出售，從而放大兩個方向的價格波動。

Adding to this viewpoint, Ed Tolson, CEO of Kbit, emphasized that the trading strategies employed by institutional players could exacerbate volatility, especially during times of market uncertainty.

Kbit 執行長 Ed Tolson 補充了這一觀點，強調機構參與者採用的交易策略可能會加劇波動性，尤其是在市場不確定時期。

Michael Harvey, head of franchise trading at Galaxy Digital, offers a balanced perspective on the volatility debate. He anticipates an initial spike in volatility due to retail traders dominating the market initially. “We expect retail traders to outnumber institutions initially, which could elevate volatility,” he observed. However, Harvey believes that as institutional players implement more sophisticated trading strategies—like selling volatility—the market’s overall volatility could stabilize over time.

Galaxy Digital 特許經營交易主管 Michael Harvey 對波動性論點提出了平衡的觀點。他預計，由於零售交易者最初主導市場，波動性最初會飆升。他表示：“我們預計零售交易者的數量最初將超過機構，這可能會加劇波動性。”然而，哈維認為，隨著機構參與者實施更複雜的交易策略（例如拋售波動性），市場的整體波動性可能會隨著時間的推移而趨於穩定。

This dual outlook highlights the transitional nature of the Bitcoin market. While early adopters may experience pronounced fluctuations, the introduction of institutional capital and strategies could lead to a more mature and stable trading environment.

這種雙重前景凸顯了比特幣市場的過渡性質。雖然早期採用者可能會經歷明顯的波動，但機構資本和策略的引入可能會帶來更成熟和穩定的交易環境。

As Bitcoin navigates this new landscape shaped by the SEC’s approvals, both opportunities and challenges lie ahead. The enhanced liquidity is likely to facilitate more robust trading conditions, attracting both seasoned investors and newcomers. However, the debate around volatility underscores the uncertainty that continues to define the cryptocurrency market.

隨著比特幣在美國證券交易委員會批准所塑造的新格局中前進，機會與挑戰並存。流動性的增強可能會促進更強勁的交易條件，吸引經驗豐富的投資者和新投資者。然而，圍繞波動性的爭論凸顯了加密貨幣市場繼續存在的不確定性。

For investors, the recent developments signify a shift toward greater institutional involvement in Bitcoin, which could help solidify its status as a legitimate asset class. Nevertheless, the mixed predictions on volatility stress the importance of a cautious approach when considering Bitcoin as an investment.

對投資者來說，最近的事態發展意味著機構更多地參與比特幣，這可能有助於鞏固其作為合法資產類別的地位。然而，對波動性的不同預測強調了在將比特幣視為投資時採取謹慎態度的重要性。

In summary, the approval of new Bitcoin ETF options represents a critical turning point for the cryptocurrency market. While there is optimism surrounding increased liquidity, the divergent views on volatility remind us of the complex dynamics at play in this ever-evolving landscape. As market participants watch closely to see how these changes unfold, one thing remains clear: Bitcoin’s journey is just beginning, and its future holds both promise and uncertainty.

總而言之，新的比特幣 ETF 選擇權的批准代表著加密貨幣市場的關鍵轉折點。儘管人們對流動性增加持樂觀態度，但對波動性的不同看法提醒我們，在這個不斷變化的環境中發揮著複雜的作用。當市場參與者密切關注這些變化如何展開時，有一件事仍然很清楚：比特幣的旅程才剛開始，其未來既充滿希望又充滿不確定性。