為什麼比特幣 ETF 選擇權能夠改變遊戲規則

在最近批准現貨比特幣 ETF 選擇權後，比特幣價格波動可能會雙向飆升

The recent approval of options for spot Bitcoin ETFs is set to amplify Bitcoin price volatility in both directions, according to Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise Investments. In an interview with Anthony Pompliano, Park explained how these new options differ from existing crypto derivatives and why they could significantly impact the Bitcoin market dynamics.

Bitwise Investments 的 Alpha 策略主管 Jeff Park 表示，近期比特幣 ETF 現貨選擇權的批准將放大比特幣價格的雙向波動。在接受 Anthony Pompliano 採訪時，Park 解釋了這些新選擇與現有的加密貨幣衍生品有何不同，以及為什麼它們可以對比特幣市場動態產生重大影響。

In the interview, Park outlined a comprehensive thesis, stating, “Volatility is not just a static measure of past performance; it reflects the distribution of potential outcomes and the severity of those outcomes.” He highlighted that the introduction of Bitcoin ETF options will bring new dimensions to how traders interact with Bitcoin, potentially amplifying both price rises and falls. This volatility, he argued, stems from the unique characteristics of options as financial instruments.

在訪談中，帕克概述了一個全面的論點，指出：“波動性不僅僅是對過去表現的靜態衡量；它是對過去表現的靜態衡量。”它反映了潛在結果的分佈以及這些結果的嚴重性。他強調，比特幣 ETF 選擇權的推出將為交易者與比特幣的互動方式帶來新的維度，可能會放大價格的上漲和下跌。他認為，這種波動性源自於選擇權作為金融工具的獨特特徵。

While Bitcoin options are not entirely new — offshore platforms like Deribit and LedgerX already offer similar instruments — ETF options introduce a regulated market overseen by US authorities like the CFTC and SEC. This makes a profound difference, according to Park, because “removal of counterparty risk is something that crypto has not fully solved offshore.” He noted that the clearing mechanisms provided by the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) bring added security to these trades, which institutional investors have long demanded.

雖然比特幣選擇權並不是全新的——Deribit 和 LedgerX 等離岸平台已經提供了類似的工具——但 ETF 選擇權引入了一個由 CFTC 和 SEC 等美國當局監管的受監管市場。 Park 表示，這產生了深遠的影響，因為“消除交易對手風險是加密貨幣在海外尚未完全解決的問題。”他指出，期權清算公司（OCC）提供的清算機制為這些交易帶來了額外的安全性，這是機構投資者長期以來所要求的。

More importantly, Park highlighted the advantage of cross-collateralization, which is not available on existing platforms that cater exclusively to crypto. “Cross-collateralization allows traders to use non-correlated assets, such as gold ETFs, as collateral in Bitcoin trades,” he explained. This flexibility increases liquidity and efficiency in the market. “You can't do this on Deribit or any purely crypto-focused platform,” Park emphasized, calling it a “huge unlock” for the Bitcoin derivatives market.

更重要的是，Park 強調了交叉抵押的優勢，這是專門針對加密貨幣的現有平台所沒有的。 「交叉抵押允許交易者使用黃金 ETF 等非相關資產作為比特幣交易的抵押品，」他解釋道。這種靈活性增加了市場的流動性和效率。 Park 強調，“你無法在 Deribit 或任何純粹以加密貨幣為中心的平台上做到這一點”，並稱其為比特幣衍生品市場的“巨大解鎖”。

Park anticipates that the introduction of these options will magnify Bitcoin's price swings. “For any well-functioning and liquid market, you need organic buyers and sellers to create natural demand and supply,” he explained. However, the real impact comes from how dealers hedge their positions, especially when they are “short gamma,” a condition where their hedging activities can intensify price movements.

Park 預計這些選項的引入將放大比特幣的價格波動。 「對於任何運作良好且流動性強的市場，都需要有機的買家和賣家來創造自然的需求和供應，」他解釋道。然而，真正的影響來自交易商如何對沖頭寸，尤其是當他們處於「空頭伽瑪」狀態時，他們的對沖活動可能會加劇價格波動。

In practical terms, Park said, “Dealers who are short gamma must buy more Bitcoin as prices rise and sell more as prices fall, thereby adding to the volatility.” This dynamic is crucial to understanding how ETF options could push Bitcoin's price to extremes in both directions. He also pointed out that, historically, most Bitcoin options activity has been driven by speculation, rather than risk management strategies like covered calls, which tend to reduce volatility.

Park 表示，實際上，“做空伽瑪的交易商必須在價格上漲時買入更多比特幣，在價格下跌時賣出更多比特幣，從而加劇波動性。”這種動態對於理解 ETF 選擇權如何將比特幣價格雙向推向極端至關重要。他也指出，從歷史上看，大多數比特幣選擇權活動都是由投機驅動的，而不是由備兌買權等風險管理策略驅動的，後者往往會降低波動性。

One of Park's key points was the dramatic growth potential for Bitcoin's derivatives market. In traditional markets like equities, the derivatives market is often 10 times larger than the underlying spot market. In contrast, Bitcoin's open interest in derivatives currently represents just 3% of its spot market value, according to Park's figures. “The introduction of ETF options could lead to a 300x increase in Bitcoin's derivatives market size,” Park predicted.

Park 的重點之一是比特幣衍生性商品市場的巨大成長潛力。在股票等傳統市場中，衍生性商品市場通常是基礎現貨市場的 10 倍。相比之下，根據 Park 的數據，比特幣衍生性商品的未平倉合約目前僅佔其現貨市場價值的 3%。 Park 預測：“ETF 選擇權的推出可能會導致比特幣衍生性商品市場規模擴大 300 倍。”

This growth would bring substantial new liquidity but would likely also drive volatility higher, due to the larger volume of speculative trades and the structural leverage introduced by options. “That's an astronomical number for which there's going to be new flows and liquidity coming into this market which will likely therefore add volatility,” Park stated.

這種成長將帶來大量新的流動性，但由於投機交易量增加和由選擇權引入的結構性槓桿，也可能推高波動性。 「這是一個天文數字，將會有新的資金和流動性進入這個市場，因此可能會增加波動性，」帕克表示。

“In the global economy, derivatives markets are far larger than the spot markets,” he added, pointing to the fact that in traditional asset classes like equities and commodities, derivatives play a critical role in risk management and speculation. “Bitcoin is moving toward a similar structure, and that's where we'll see the most significant price movements and liquidity,” Park concluded.

「在全球經濟中，衍生性商品市場遠大於現貨市場，」他補充道，並指出在股票和大宗商品等傳統資產類別中，衍生性商品在風險管理和投機方面發揮關鍵作用。 「比特幣正在朝著類似的結構發展，這就是我們將看到最顯著的價格變動和流動性的地方，」帕克總結道。

At press time, BTC trades at $62,334.

截至發稿時，BTC 交易價格為 62,334 美元。