比特幣現在可能進入牛市的第二階段

鏈上數據顯示，就該指標而言，比特幣目前可能遵循與上一個週期類似的模式。

CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin is currently displaying a trend in an indicator that could be signaling the start of the second phase of the bull run.

CryptoQuant 數據顯示，比特幣目前顯示的指標趨勢可能預示著牛市第二階段的開始。

Bitcoin Could Now Be Entering Phase 2 Of The Bull Run

比特幣現在可能進入牛市的第二階段

In a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has highlighted how the recent behavior of the Bitcoin long-term holder supply has brought to mind what was observed during the 2017 cycle.

在最近的 CryptoQuant Quicktake 貼文中，一位分析師強調了比特幣長期持有者供應的近期行為如何讓人想起 2017 年周期中觀察到的情況。

The long-term holders (LTHs) are defined as one of the two main groups that the BTC userbase can be divided into based on holding time, with the other side being the short-term holders (STHs).

長期持有者（LTH）被定義為 BTC 用戶群根據持有時間可分為的兩個主要群體之一，另一方是短期持有者（STH）。

The cutoff between these two cohorts is 155 days, where investors who bought within this window are a part of the STHs, while those holding for more than it fall in the LTHs.

這兩個群體之間的界線是 155 天，在此視窗內買入的投資者屬於 STH 的一部分，而持有超過該期限的投資者則屬於 LTH。

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Statistically, the longer an investor continues to hold onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell said coins at any point. Hence, the LTHs are considered to include the more resolute market participants.

根據統計，投資者繼續持有代幣的時間越長，他們在任何時候出售這些代幣的可能性就越小。因此，LTH 被認為包括更堅定的市場參與者。

Below is a chart that shows the trend in the combined amount of supply held by the participants of the respective Bitcoin groups.

下面的圖表顯示了各個比特幣組的參與者持有的供應總量的趨勢。

As can be seen in the graph, the Bitcoin LTH supply saw a strong drawdown during the rally in the first quarter of the year, suggesting that even these diamond hands couldn’t resist the temptation of profit-taking.

從圖中可以看出，比特幣LTH供應量在今年第一季的上漲過程中出現了大幅回撤，這表明即使是這些鑽石手也無法抵禦獲利了結的誘惑。

Along with this decrease in the LTH supply, the STH supply went up, as whenever the LTHs transfer their tokens on the blockchain, they become part of the STH cohort instead.

隨著 LTH 供應量的減少，STH 供應量增加，因為每當 LTH 在區塊鏈上轉移其代幣時，它們就會成為 STH 隊列的一部分。

Recently, the LTH supply had reversed this drawdown from earlier in the year, but with the latest rally to the new all-time high (ATH), the metric has again switched directions.

最近，LTH 供應扭轉了今年早些時候的下降趨勢，但隨著最近的反彈達到新的歷史高點 (ATH)，該指標再次改變了方向。

In the chart, the quant has highlighted how a similar pattern was also seen during the 2017 cycle; a first phase of distribution from the LTHs was followed by accumulation, which then led to a second phase of distribution.

在圖表中，這位量化分析師強調了 2017 年週期中也出現了類似的模式； LTH 的第一階段分配之後是積累，然後導致第二階段的分配。

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It’s possible that the latest turnaround in the LTH supply is the start of the phase 2 distribution for the current cycle, where fresh capital flows in to take coins off the hands of the HODLers.

LTH 供應的最新轉變可能是當前週期第二階段分配的開始，新的資本流入，從 HODLers 手中奪走代幣。

The LTH supply isn’t the only metric that’s showing a trend that matches that of the previous cycle. As the chart shared by the analyst shows, the Bitcoin Binary CDD is also forming an interesting pattern.

LTH 供應量並不是顯示與上一周期相符的趨勢的唯一指標。正如分析師分享的圖表所示，比特幣二元 CDD 也正在形成一個有趣的模式。

The Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) essentially tells us about whether the HODLers are selling less or more than the historical average. From the graph, it’s apparent that the 152-day moving average (MA) of this metric may be showing a second breakout similar to the one that led into the 2021 bull run.

二元幣銷毀天數（CDD）本質上告訴我們持有者的銷售量是否低於或高於歷史平均值。從圖表中可以明顯看出，該指標的 152 天移動平均線 (MA) 可能會出現第二次突破，類似於導致 2021 年多頭市場的突破。

BTC Price

比特幣價格

Bitcoin continues to be in ATH exploration mode as its price is trading around $75,900.

比特幣繼續處於 ATH 探索模式，其價格約為 75,900 美元。