比特币现在可能进入牛市的第二阶段

链上数据显示，就该指标而言，比特币目前可能遵循与上一个周期类似的模式。

CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin is currently displaying a trend in an indicator that could be signaling the start of the second phase of the bull run.

CryptoQuant 数据显示，比特币目前显示的指标趋势可能预示着牛市第二阶段的开始。

Bitcoin Could Now Be Entering Phase 2 Of The Bull Run

比特币现在可能进入牛市的第二阶段

In a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has highlighted how the recent behavior of the Bitcoin long-term holder supply has brought to mind what was observed during the 2017 cycle.

在最近的 CryptoQuant Quicktake 帖子中，一位分析师强调了比特币长期持有者供应的近期行为如何让人想起 2017 年周期中观察到的情况。

The long-term holders (LTHs) are defined as one of the two main groups that the BTC userbase can be divided into based on holding time, with the other side being the short-term holders (STHs).

长期持有者（LTH）被定义为 BTC 用户群根据持有时间可分为的两个主要群体之一，另一方是短期持有者（STH）。

The cutoff between these two cohorts is 155 days, where investors who bought within this window are a part of the STHs, while those holding for more than it fall in the LTHs.

这两个群体之间的界限是 155 天，在此窗口内买入的投资者属于 STH 的一部分，而持有超过该期限的投资者则属于 LTH。

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Statistically, the longer an investor continues to hold onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell said coins at any point. Hence, the LTHs are considered to include the more resolute market participants.

据统计，投资者继续持有代币的时间越长，他们在任何时候出售这些代币的可能性就越小。因此，LTH 被认为包括更坚定的市场参与者。

Below is a chart that shows the trend in the combined amount of supply held by the participants of the respective Bitcoin groups.

下面的图表显示了各个比特币组的参与者持有的供应总量的趋势。

As can be seen in the graph, the Bitcoin LTH supply saw a strong drawdown during the rally in the first quarter of the year, suggesting that even these diamond hands couldn’t resist the temptation of profit-taking.

从图中可以看出，比特币LTH供应量在今年第一季度的上涨过程中出现了大幅下降，这表明即使是这些钻石手也无法抵御获利了结的诱惑。

Along with this decrease in the LTH supply, the STH supply went up, as whenever the LTHs transfer their tokens on the blockchain, they become part of the STH cohort instead.

随着 LTH 供应量的减少，STH 供应量增加，因为每当 LTH 在区块链上转移其代币时，它们就会成为 STH 队列的一部分。

Recently, the LTH supply had reversed this drawdown from earlier in the year, but with the latest rally to the new all-time high (ATH), the metric has again switched directions.

最近，LTH 供应扭转了今年早些时候的下降趋势，但随着最近的反弹达到新的历史高点 (ATH)，该指标再次改变了方向。

In the chart, the quant has highlighted how a similar pattern was also seen during the 2017 cycle; a first phase of distribution from the LTHs was followed by accumulation, which then led to a second phase of distribution.

在图表中，这位量化分析师强调了 2017 年周期中也出现了类似的模式； LTH 的第一阶段分配之后是积累，然后导致第二阶段的分配。

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It’s possible that the latest turnaround in the LTH supply is the start of the phase 2 distribution for the current cycle, where fresh capital flows in to take coins off the hands of the HODLers.

LTH 供应的最新转变可能是当前周期第二阶段分配的开始，新的资本流入，从 HODLers 手中夺走代币。

The LTH supply isn’t the only metric that’s showing a trend that matches that of the previous cycle. As the chart shared by the analyst shows, the Bitcoin Binary CDD is also forming an interesting pattern.

LTH 供应量并不是显示与上一周期相符的趋势的唯一指标。正如分析师分享的图表所示，比特币二元 CDD 也正在形成一个有趣的模式。

The Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) essentially tells us about whether the HODLers are selling less or more than the historical average. From the graph, it’s apparent that the 152-day moving average (MA) of this metric may be showing a second breakout similar to the one that led into the 2021 bull run.

二元币销毁天数（CDD）本质上告诉我们持有者的销售量是否低于或高于历史平均水平。从图表中可以明显看出，该指标的 152 天移动平均线 (MA) 可能会出现第二次突破，类似于导致 2021 年牛市的突破。

BTC Price

比特币价格

Bitcoin continues to be in ATH exploration mode as its price is trading around $75,900.

比特币继续处于 ATH 探索模式，其价格约为 75,900 美元。