隨著市場旋轉到Altcoins，比特幣優勢達到了其周期頂部

勞爾·帕爾（Raoul Pal）是一位有成就的交易者，是真實視覺的創始人，他透露，在持續的上升趨勢中，比特幣優勢已經達到了最高週期。

Raul Pal, the founder of Real Vision, has predicted that the cycle top in Bitcoin (BTC) dominance has been reached amid a broader uptrend.

真實視野的創始人勞爾·帕爾（Raul Pal）預測，在更廣泛的上升趨勢中，比特幣（BTC）的循環頂部已經達到了優勢。

In a commentary on X Wednesday, the market veteran said technical signals, specifically DeMark tops, suggest there could be a potential turning point for BTC's market share, which has seen a steady climb since December 2024.

在X週三的評論中，市場退伍軍人說，技術信號，尤其是Demark上衣，表明BTC的市場份額可能有一個潛在的轉折點，BTC的市場份額自2024年12月以來一直在穩步上升。

"Yes, we are still in the Banana Zone...," said Pal. "Banana Zone Phase 1 was the break out last year, now the consolidation (like the 2016/17 consolidation after phase 1). This won't last long... Next up Banana Zone Phase 2 - The 'Banana Singularity' (Alts szn) when everything goes up..."

帕爾說：“是的，我們仍在香蕉區……。” “香蕉區的第一階段是去年的突破，現在的合併（如第1階段之後的2016/17合併）。這不會持續很長時間...下一個階段2階段 - 'Banana Singularity'（Alts SZN）（當一切都上升時）...”

Notably, Pal cited DeMark Indicators, developed by industry legend Tom DeMark, as the tools indicating this market top. These tools identify reversals by overextended price trends.

值得注意的是，PAL引用了由行業傳奇人物湯姆·德馬克（Tom DeMark）制定的德馬克指標，作為指示該市場頂級的工具。這些工具通過過度擴展的價格趨勢來識別逆轉。

In this case, Pal noted that daily, weekly, and monthly DeMark tops have aligned for Bitcoin dominance, suggesting that its upward trajectory may be nearing exhaustion. While he failed to call out the specific DeMark indicators, popular ones such as the TD Sequential could have been useful for identifying this top.

在這種情況下，PAL指出，每天，每周和每月的DeMark上衣都與比特幣優勢保持一致，這表明其向上的軌跡可能正在疲憊。儘管他未能召集特定的德馬克指標，但諸如TD順序之類的受歡迎的指標對於識別該頂部可能很有用。

"After a magnificent run, it seems like we may be topping out of the Bitcoin cycle and into the Banana Zone's second phase: a period of more significant and faster increase in altcoins as capital rotates out of BTC and into riskier assets," said Pal.

帕爾說：“經過宏偉的運行，似乎我們可能會超越比特幣週期並進入香蕉區的第二階段：隨著資本從BTC旋轉並轉變為風險較高的資產，AltCoins的時期更加顯著，更快。”

After reaching a high of 73.63% in 2021, Bitcoin dominance is now showing signs of fatigue, having not yet reached the highs observed in 2017.

在2021年達到73.63％的最高點之後，比特幣的優勢現在顯示出疲勞的跡象，尚未達到2017年的高點。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin dominance stands at 64.8%, highlighting the cryptocurrency's resilience in a market that has seen little action in recent months.

在撰寫本文時，比特幣優勢為64.8％，強調了加密貨幣在最近幾個月幾乎沒有行動的市場中的彈性。

While Bitcoin has risen by 6.6% year-to-date in 2025, currently trading at $99,458 as it approaches the $100,000 milestone, the altcoin market has struggled to keep pace.

雖然比特幣在2025年年滿6.6％，目前以99,458美元的價格交易，因為它接近了100,000美元的里程碑，但Altcoin Market一直在努力保持步伐。

The TOTAL2 index, which tracks the crypto market excluding Bitcoin, has seen a 19.67% decline this year, dropping from $1.34 trillion to $1.07 trillion. This disparity has contributed to Bitcoin's dominance steadily increasing, with May 2025 set to mark the sixth consecutive month of gains.

跟踪加密貨幣市場（不包括比特幣）的Total 2指數已經下降了19.67％，從1.34萬億美元下降到1.07萬億美元。這種差異導致比特幣的統治地位穩步增長，2025年5月定下了連續第六個月的收益。

However, Pal's prediction suggests that the tide may soon turn in favor of altcoins. To describe what comes next, Pal introduced the "Banana Zone," a term coined by himself.

但是，PAL的預測表明，潮汐可能很快轉向了替代幣。為了描述接下來的事情，帕爾介紹了“香蕉區”，這是他自己創造的術語。

This term refers to a phase in the crypto market cycle where prices generally explode, creating a parabolic, banana-shaped price curve on charts. He divides it into three phases, with the first phase being the initial breakout for all assets, which occurred in November 2024.

該術語是指在加密市場週期中的一個階段，價格通常會爆炸，在圖表上創建了拋物線，香蕉形的價格曲線。他將其分為三個階段，第一階段是所有資產的初始分解，該資產發生在2024年11月。

This first phase, also known as the "Banana Breakout," is characterized by a strong and rapid increase in price, typically from a deep and prolonged bear market. As the market momentum builds, it attracts more and more participants, leading to a frenzy of buying activity.

第一階段，也稱為“香蕉爆發”，其特徵是價格強勁而快速上漲，通常來自較長且延長的熊市。隨著市場勢頭的發展，它吸引了越來越多的參與者，導致購買活動的瘋狂。

The second phase, according to Pal, is the "Banana Singularity," which involves a period when altcoins experience more uptrend after consolidating, outpacing Bitcoin as investors seek higher returns in riskier assets. This second phase typically follows a peak in Bitcoin dominance, as capital rotates into altcoins.

根據PAL的說法，第二階段是“香蕉奇異性”，其中涉及一個時期，當時altcoins在合併後會更加上升，超過了比特幣，因為投資者尋求更高的風險資產回報。第二階段通常遵循比特幣優勢的峰值，因為資本旋轉到山寨幣。

This shift in capital flows usually results in a decline in Bitcoin dominance and a surge in altcoin market share, also known as "altcoin season." During this time, altcoins, such as Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), tend to outperform Bitcoin significantly, reflecting a broader market interest in riskier assets.

資本流動的這種轉變通常會導致比特幣優勢下降和替代幣市場份額的激增，也稱為“替代季季”。在此期間，諸如以太坊（Crypto：ETH）之類的AltCoins傾向於勝過比特幣，反映出對風險較高的資產的更廣泛的市場興趣。

The third and final phase of the Banana Zone is marked by a return of dominance to Bitcoin as the market cycle reaches its apex. This phase is characterized by a strong rally in Bitcoin price, outperforming altcoins and ultimately leading to a peak in the overall crypto market cap.

香蕉區的第三階段也是最後一個階段是在市場週期到達其頂點時對比特幣的統治回歸。該階段的特徵是比特幣價格強烈集會，優於山寨幣，最終導致了整個加密貨幣市值達到頂峰。

As the cycle culminates, Bitcoin's dominance is expected to return to high levels, signifying its role as the primary cryptocurrency and a safe haven for investors during times of market stress.

隨著周期的高潮，比特幣的優勢預計將恢復高水平，這表明其在市場壓力時期的主要加密貨幣和投資者的避風港的作用。

This prediction aligns with the observations of other analysts, such as Merlijn the Trader, who suggested that the altcoin season has observed a trigger.

這種預測與其他分析師的觀察結果一致，例如交易員梅爾利恩（Merlijn），他建議山寨幣季節觀察到了觸發因素。

According to Merlijn, the dominance of the Bitcoin season is "cracking," arguing that those who do not position themselves for this shift will become exit liquidity later.

根據Merlijn的說法，比特幣季節的主導地位是“破解”，認為那些不為此轉變定位的人將在以後退出流動性。

"If you’re not positioned now, you’ll be exit liquidity later. Alts are loading. You either lead or get left," stated Merlijn in a commentary on Wednesday.

梅利恩在周三的評論中說：“如果您現在沒有位置，您將稍後退出流動性。Alts正在加載。您要么領導或離開。”

Moreover, market analyst Crypto Goos noted that Bitcoin dominance might be breaking down soon, identifying a rising wedge structure that has persisted since 2

此外，市場分析師Crypto Goos指出，比特幣優勢可能很快就會崩潰，確定了自2歲以來一直持續存在的楔形結構