随着市场旋转到Altcoins，比特币优势达到了其周期顶部

劳尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）是一位有成就的交易者，是真实视觉的创始人，他透露，在持续的上升趋势中，比特币优势已经达到了最高周期。

Raul Pal, the founder of Real Vision, has predicted that the cycle top in Bitcoin (BTC) dominance has been reached amid a broader uptrend.

真实视野的创始人劳尔·帕尔（Raul Pal）预测，在更广泛的上升趋势中，比特币（BTC）的循环顶部已经达到了优势。

In a commentary on X Wednesday, the market veteran said technical signals, specifically DeMark tops, suggest there could be a potential turning point for BTC's market share, which has seen a steady climb since December 2024.

在X周三的评论中，市场退伍军人说，技术信号，尤其是Demark上衣，表明BTC的市场份额可能有一个潜在的转折点，BTC的市场份额自2024年12月以来一直在稳步上升。

"Yes, we are still in the Banana Zone...," said Pal. "Banana Zone Phase 1 was the break out last year, now the consolidation (like the 2016/17 consolidation after phase 1). This won't last long... Next up Banana Zone Phase 2 - The 'Banana Singularity' (Alts szn) when everything goes up..."

帕尔说：“是的，我们仍在香蕉区……。” “香蕉区的第一阶段是去年的突破，现在的合并（如第1阶段之后的2016/17合并）。这不会持续很长时间...下一个阶段2阶段 - 'Banana Singularity'（Alts SZN）（当一切都上升时）...”

Notably, Pal cited DeMark Indicators, developed by industry legend Tom DeMark, as the tools indicating this market top. These tools identify reversals by overextended price trends.

值得注意的是，PAL引用了由行业传奇人物汤姆·德马克（Tom DeMark）制定的德马克指标，作为指示该市场顶级的工具。这些工具通过过度扩展的价格趋势来识别逆转。

In this case, Pal noted that daily, weekly, and monthly DeMark tops have aligned for Bitcoin dominance, suggesting that its upward trajectory may be nearing exhaustion. While he failed to call out the specific DeMark indicators, popular ones such as the TD Sequential could have been useful for identifying this top.

在这种情况下，PAL指出，每天，每周和每月的DeMark上衣都与比特币优势保持一致，这表明其向上的轨迹可能正在疲惫。尽管他未能召集特定的德马克指标，但诸如TD顺序之类的受欢迎的指标对于识别该顶部可能很有用。

"After a magnificent run, it seems like we may be topping out of the Bitcoin cycle and into the Banana Zone's second phase: a period of more significant and faster increase in altcoins as capital rotates out of BTC and into riskier assets," said Pal.

帕尔说：“经过宏伟的运行，似乎我们可能会超越比特币周期并进入香蕉区的第二阶段：随着资本从BTC旋转并转变为风险较高的资产，AltCoins的时期更加显着，更快。”

After reaching a high of 73.63% in 2021, Bitcoin dominance is now showing signs of fatigue, having not yet reached the highs observed in 2017.

在2021年达到73.63％的最高点之后，比特币的优势现在显示出疲劳的迹象，尚未达到2017年的高点。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin dominance stands at 64.8%, highlighting the cryptocurrency's resilience in a market that has seen little action in recent months.

在撰写本文时，比特币优势为64.8％，强调了加密货币在最近几个月几乎没有行动的市场中的弹性。

While Bitcoin has risen by 6.6% year-to-date in 2025, currently trading at $99,458 as it approaches the $100,000 milestone, the altcoin market has struggled to keep pace.

虽然比特币在2025年年满6.6％，目前以99,458美元的价格交易，因为它接近了100,000美元的里程碑，但Altcoin Market一直在努力保持步伐。

The TOTAL2 index, which tracks the crypto market excluding Bitcoin, has seen a 19.67% decline this year, dropping from $1.34 trillion to $1.07 trillion. This disparity has contributed to Bitcoin's dominance steadily increasing, with May 2025 set to mark the sixth consecutive month of gains.

跟踪加密货币市场（不包括比特币）的Total 2指数已经下降了19.67％，从1.34万亿美元下降到1.07万亿美元。这种差异导致比特币的统治地位稳步增长，2025年5月定下了连续第六个月的收益。

However, Pal's prediction suggests that the tide may soon turn in favor of altcoins. To describe what comes next, Pal introduced the "Banana Zone," a term coined by himself.

但是，PAL的预测表明，潮汐可能很快转向了替代币。为了描述接下来的事情，帕尔介绍了“香蕉区”，这是他自己创造的术语。

This term refers to a phase in the crypto market cycle where prices generally explode, creating a parabolic, banana-shaped price curve on charts. He divides it into three phases, with the first phase being the initial breakout for all assets, which occurred in November 2024.

该术语是指在加密市场周期中的一个阶段，价格通常会爆炸，在图表上创建了抛物线，香蕉形的价格曲线。他将其分为三个阶段，第一阶段是所有资产的初始分解，该资产发生在2024年11月。

This first phase, also known as the "Banana Breakout," is characterized by a strong and rapid increase in price, typically from a deep and prolonged bear market. As the market momentum builds, it attracts more and more participants, leading to a frenzy of buying activity.

第一阶段，也称为“香蕉爆发”，其特征是价格强劲而快速上涨，通常来自较长且延长的熊市。随着市场势头的发展，它吸引了越来越多的参与者，导致购买活动的疯狂。

The second phase, according to Pal, is the "Banana Singularity," which involves a period when altcoins experience more uptrend after consolidating, outpacing Bitcoin as investors seek higher returns in riskier assets. This second phase typically follows a peak in Bitcoin dominance, as capital rotates into altcoins.

根据PAL的说法，第二阶段是“香蕉奇异性”，其中涉及一个时期，当时altcoins在合并后会更加上升，超过了比特币，因为投资者寻求更高的风险资产回报。第二阶段通常遵循比特币优势的峰值，因为资本旋转到山寨币。

This shift in capital flows usually results in a decline in Bitcoin dominance and a surge in altcoin market share, also known as "altcoin season." During this time, altcoins, such as Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), tend to outperform Bitcoin significantly, reflecting a broader market interest in riskier assets.

资本流动的这种转变通常会导致比特币优势下降和替代币市场份额的激增，也称为“替代季季”。在此期间，诸如以太坊（Crypto：ETH）之类的AltCoins倾向于胜过比特币，反映出对风险较高的资产的更广泛的市场兴趣。

The third and final phase of the Banana Zone is marked by a return of dominance to Bitcoin as the market cycle reaches its apex. This phase is characterized by a strong rally in Bitcoin price, outperforming altcoins and ultimately leading to a peak in the overall crypto market cap.

香蕉区的第三阶段也是最后一个阶段是在市场周期到达其顶点时对比特币的统治回归。该阶段的特征是比特币价格强烈集会，优于山寨币，最终导致了整个加密货币市值达到顶峰。

As the cycle culminates, Bitcoin's dominance is expected to return to high levels, signifying its role as the primary cryptocurrency and a safe haven for investors during times of market stress.

随着周期的高潮，比特币的优势预计将恢复高水平，这表明其在市场压力时期的主要加密货币和投资者的避风港的作用。

This prediction aligns with the observations of other analysts, such as Merlijn the Trader, who suggested that the altcoin season has observed a trigger.

这种预测与其他分析师的观察结果一致，例如交易员梅尔利恩（Merlijn），他建议山寨币季节观察到了触发因素。

According to Merlijn, the dominance of the Bitcoin season is "cracking," arguing that those who do not position themselves for this shift will become exit liquidity later.

根据Merlijn的说法，比特币季节的主导地位是“破解”，认为那些不为此转变定位的人将在以后退出流动性。

"If you’re not positioned now, you’ll be exit liquidity later. Alts are loading. You either lead or get left," stated Merlijn in a commentary on Wednesday.

梅利恩在周三的评论中说：“如果您现在没有位置，您将稍后退出流动性。Alts正在加载。您要么领导或离开。”

Moreover, market analyst Crypto Goos noted that Bitcoin dominance might be breaking down soon, identifying a rising wedge structure that has persisted since 2

此外，市场分析师Crypto Goos指出，比特币优势可能很快就会崩溃，确定了自2岁以来一直持续存在的楔形结构