比特幣的優勢可能會崩潰到40％：對Altcoin市場有益

加密貨幣市場中比特幣的優勢正在危險地接近長期阻力水平，這在過去觸發了重大逆轉。

The Bitcoin dominance in the cryptocurrency market is inching dangerously close to a long-term resistance level that has triggered major reversals in the past. This resistance level is highlighted on the weekly BTC.D candlestick timeframe chart.

加密貨幣市場中比特幣的優勢正在危險地接近長期阻力水平，這在過去觸發了重大逆轉。每週的BTC.D燭台時間範圍圖表中突出顯示了這種阻力水平。

Each time the dominance taps this descending trendline, it struggles to break through and eventually tumbles. Notably, Bitcoin’s dominance is now back around this resistance, and a technical outlook posted on the TradingView platform points to a crash to 40% within the next months.

每次優勢降低這種下降的趨勢線時，它都會努力突破並最終跌落。值得注意的是，比特幣的統治地位現在圍繞著這種阻力，並且在交易景觀平台上發布的技術前景指向接下來的幾個月內撞車至40％。

Bitcoin Dominance Could Crash To 40%: Good For The Altcoin Market

比特幣的優勢可能會崩潰到40％：對Altcoin市場有益

The dynamics behind Bitcoin’s dominance have been different this cycle compared to previous ones. This is because the dominance has grown massively since the beginning of this cycle, leaving little room for an altcoin season like many have continued to expect. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s market dominance is sitting at a yearly high of 63.2%, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

與以前的循環相比，比特幣的主導地位背後的動態是不同的。這是因為自從這個週期開始以來，優勢已經大幅增長，就像許多人繼續期望的那樣，幾乎沒有空間來容納山寨幣季節。根據CoinMarketCap的數據，在撰寫本文時，比特幣的市場優勢佔63.2％。

However, an interesting technical analysis shows that the Bitcoin dominance is now tapping on a resistance trendline that puts it at risk of crashing below 40%, up until 34.9%. If that pattern holds true once again, the crypto market could be approaching a phase where Ethereum, XRP, and other altcoins regain strength in what many hope will be the next altseason.

但是，一個有趣的技術分析表明，比特幣優勢現在正在利用一種阻力趨勢線，該趨勢可能會撞擊40％以下，直到34.9％。如果這種模式再次成立，那麼加密貨幣市場可能正在接近以太坊，XRP和其他山寨幣在下一個季后賽中恢復實力的階段。

A drop in Bitcoin dominance will bode positively for altcoins, since it indicates that the altcoin market is outperforming Bitcoin. This will be characterized by a widespread increase in the prices of major altcoins, such as Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. In such a case, tokens like Ethereum, XRP, Cardano, Chainlink, BNB, and Litecoin, the so-called DINO coins that have survived multiple market cycles, are most likely to draw early attention from retail traders.

比特幣優勢的下降將對山寨幣積極積極，因為它表明山寨幣市場的表現優於比特幣。這將以主要高銷售額的價格（例如以太坊，Solana和XRP）的價格廣泛上漲。在這種情況下，像以太坊，XRP，Cardano，Chainlink，BNB和Litecoin這樣的代幣（在多個市場週期中倖存下來的所謂的Dino硬幣）最有可能引起零售商人的早期關注。

However, unlike past bull runs, when only a few hundred altcoins existed and most received some attention, the crypto market is now saturated with thousands of altcoins. After the large market-cap altcoins, the rotation could move toward more niche sectors. Sectors such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Real World Assets (RWA), and DeFi may also attract attention, but even within these categories, a strong filtering process will be applied to select the altcoins that will perform better.

但是，與過去的公牛奔跑不同，當只有幾百個山寨幣並且大多數受到關注時，加密貨幣市場現在已經充滿了成千上萬的Altcoins。在大型市場售出山寨幣之後，旋轉可能會朝著更多的利基領域移動。人工智能（AI），現實世界資產（RWA）和DEFI等部門也可能引起人們的注意，但是即使在這些類別中，也將應用強大的過濾過程，以選擇可以表現更好的AltCoins。

Can Bitcoin Dominance Really Crash To 40%?

比特幣的優勢真的可以崩潰到40％嗎？

The Bitcoin dominance crashing to 40% is not a new phenomenon, looking at how the 2017 and 2021 bull markets unfolded. However, such a phenomenon happening again is becoming increasingly difficult, considering Bitcoin’s position in the investment world today through Spot Bitcoin ETFs. These funds in these ETFs are locked up for the long term, meaning a rejection in BTC dominance may not automatically result in massive liquidity flows into the altcoin market, as seen in 2021 and 2017.

比特幣優勢降至40％並不是一種新現象，研究了2017年和2021年牛市的發展方式。但是，考慮到比特幣通過現貨比特幣ETF在投資界的地位，這種現象再次變得越來越困難。這些ETF中的這些資金長期鎖定，這意味著BTC優勢的拒絕可能不會自動導致大量流動性流入AltCoin市場，如2021年和2017年所示。

Even if Bitcoin dominance crashes toward 40% and ushers in a new altcoin cycle, many altcoins will eventually end in brutal drawdowns. Across past market cycles, the majority of altcoins have suffered losses of over 90% once bullish sentiment fades and capital flows back into stablecoins.

即使比特幣在新的Altcoin週期中跌至40％，並引入40％，但許多Altcoins最終仍會以殘酷的趨勢結束。在過去的市場週期中，一旦看漲的情緒逐漸消失，大多數Altcoins遭受了90％以上的損失。