比特币的优势可能会崩溃到40％：对Altcoin市场有益

加密货币市场中比特币的优势正在危险地接近长期阻力水平，这在过去触发了重大逆转。

The Bitcoin dominance in the cryptocurrency market is inching dangerously close to a long-term resistance level that has triggered major reversals in the past. This resistance level is highlighted on the weekly BTC.D candlestick timeframe chart.

加密货币市场中比特币的优势正在危险地接近长期阻力水平，这在过去触发了重大逆转。每周的BTC.D烛台时间范围图表中突出显示了这种阻力水平。

Each time the dominance taps this descending trendline, it struggles to break through and eventually tumbles. Notably, Bitcoin’s dominance is now back around this resistance, and a technical outlook posted on the TradingView platform points to a crash to 40% within the next months.

每次优势降低这种下降的趋势线时，它都会努力突破并最终跌落。值得注意的是，比特币的统治地位现在围绕着这种阻力，并且在交易景观平台上发布的技术前景指向接下来的几个月内撞车至40％。

Bitcoin Dominance Could Crash To 40%: Good For The Altcoin Market

比特币的优势可能会崩溃到40％：对Altcoin市场有益

The dynamics behind Bitcoin’s dominance have been different this cycle compared to previous ones. This is because the dominance has grown massively since the beginning of this cycle, leaving little room for an altcoin season like many have continued to expect. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s market dominance is sitting at a yearly high of 63.2%, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

与以前的循环相比，比特币的主导地位背后的动态是不同的。这是因为自从这个周期开始以来，优势已经大幅增长，就像许多人继续期望的那样，几乎没有空间来容纳山寨币季节。根据CoinMarketCap的数据，在撰写本文时，比特币的市场优势占63.2％。

However, an interesting technical analysis shows that the Bitcoin dominance is now tapping on a resistance trendline that puts it at risk of crashing below 40%, up until 34.9%. If that pattern holds true once again, the crypto market could be approaching a phase where Ethereum, XRP, and other altcoins regain strength in what many hope will be the next altseason.

但是，一个有趣的技术分析表明，比特币优势现在正在利用一种阻力趋势线，该趋势可能会撞击40％以下，直到34.9％。如果这种模式再次成立，那么加密货币市场可能正在接近以太坊，XRP和其他山寨币在下一个季后赛中恢复实力的阶段。

A drop in Bitcoin dominance will bode positively for altcoins, since it indicates that the altcoin market is outperforming Bitcoin. This will be characterized by a widespread increase in the prices of major altcoins, such as Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. In such a case, tokens like Ethereum, XRP, Cardano, Chainlink, BNB, and Litecoin, the so-called DINO coins that have survived multiple market cycles, are most likely to draw early attention from retail traders.

比特币优势的下降将对山寨币积极积极，因为它表明山寨币市场的表现优于比特币。这将以主要高销售额的价格（例如以太坊，Solana和XRP）的价格广泛上涨。在这种情况下，像以太坊，XRP，Cardano，Chainlink，BNB和Litecoin这样的代币（在多个市场周期中幸存下来的所谓的Dino硬币）最有可能引起零售商人的早期关注。

However, unlike past bull runs, when only a few hundred altcoins existed and most received some attention, the crypto market is now saturated with thousands of altcoins. After the large market-cap altcoins, the rotation could move toward more niche sectors. Sectors such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Real World Assets (RWA), and DeFi may also attract attention, but even within these categories, a strong filtering process will be applied to select the altcoins that will perform better.

但是，与过去的公牛奔跑不同，当只有几百个山寨币并且大多数受到关注时，加密货币市场现在已经充满了成千上万的Altcoins。在大型市场售出山寨币之后，旋转可能会朝着更多的利基领域移动。人工智能（AI），现实世界资产（RWA）和DEFI等部门也可能引起人们的注意，但是即使在这些类别中，也将应用强大的过滤过程，以选择可以表现更好的AltCoins。

Can Bitcoin Dominance Really Crash To 40%?

比特币的优势真的可以崩溃到40％吗？

The Bitcoin dominance crashing to 40% is not a new phenomenon, looking at how the 2017 and 2021 bull markets unfolded. However, such a phenomenon happening again is becoming increasingly difficult, considering Bitcoin’s position in the investment world today through Spot Bitcoin ETFs. These funds in these ETFs are locked up for the long term, meaning a rejection in BTC dominance may not automatically result in massive liquidity flows into the altcoin market, as seen in 2021 and 2017.

比特币优势降至40％并不是一种新现象，研究了2017年和2021年牛市的发展方式。但是，考虑到比特币通过现货比特币ETF在投资界的地位，这种现象再次变得越来越困难。这些ETF中的这些资金长期锁定，这意味着BTC优势的拒绝可能不会自动导致大量流动性流入AltCoin市场，如2021年和2017年所示。

Even if Bitcoin dominance crashes toward 40% and ushers in a new altcoin cycle, many altcoins will eventually end in brutal drawdowns. Across past market cycles, the majority of altcoins have suffered losses of over 90% once bullish sentiment fades and capital flows back into stablecoins.

即使比特币在新的Altcoin周期中跌至40％，并引入40％，但许多Altcoins最终仍会以残酷的趋势结束。在过去的市场周期中，一旦看涨的情绪逐渐消失，大多数Altcoins遭受了90％以上的损失。