比特幣主導地位分析：打破傳統？

加密貨幣研究人員 Flow 最近強調了這種傳統模式的潛在偏差。 Flow 在 Medium 上的最新貼文中質疑為什麼儘管看跌階段已經結束，但比特幣的主導地位卻沒有顯示出減弱的跡象。

In a typical market cycle, Bitcoin (BTC) dominance tends to follow a specific pattern:

在典型的市場週期中，比特幣（BTC）的主導地位往往遵循特定的模式：

- BTC dominance rises during bear markets.

- 在熊市期間，比特幣的主導地位上升。

- It continues to increase in the early stages of a bull market.

- 在牛市的早期階段繼續增加。

- Finally, it sharply declines as the bull market matures.

- 最後，隨著多頭市場的成熟，它急劇下跌。

However, the current crypto market cycle seems to be deviating from this traditional pattern. As pointed out by crypto researcher Flow in his latest post on X, despite being at the end of a bearish phase, Bitcoin dominance has shown no signs of weakening. Historically, we would expect to see a decline in dominance as the market recovers. But instead, Bitcoin’s dominance remains strong, hovering around 54.3% — close to its yearly peak.

然而，當前的加密貨幣市場週期似乎正在偏離這種傳統模式。正如加密貨幣研究員 Flow 在 X 上的最新帖子中指出的那樣，儘管比特幣處於看跌階段的末尾，但其主導地位並沒有顯示出減弱的跡象。從歷史上看，隨著市場復甦，我們預期主導地位將會下降。但相反，比特幣的主導地位依然強勁，徘徊在 54.3% 左右——接近年度高峰。

Flow highlights this potential deviation in a recent post, titled "A surprising fact about this crypto market cycle." In his analysis, he examines the relationship between Bitcoin dominance and the broader market sentiment, as indicated by the Fear and Greed Index. His findings suggest that a weaker correlation between these two metrics could indicate a shift in market dynamics.

Flow 在最近的一篇題為「關於這個加密貨幣市場週期的令人驚訝的事實」的文章中強調了這種潛在的偏差。在他的分析中，他研究了比特幣的主導地位與更廣泛的市場情緒之間的關係，如恐懼和貪婪指數所示。他的研究結果表明，這兩個指標之間的相關性較弱可能表明市場動態發生了變化。

As of today, the dominance of Bitcoin in the crypto market is around 54.3% which is very close to the highest dominance marked this year. The highest dominance marked in the last twelve months is the dominance of 54.37% which was recorded in mid-August 2024 and the lowest in the last 12 months is 46.35% which was reported in early-September 2023. In mid-January, the BTC dominance was just 47.6%. In mid-April, it climbed to 51.9%, and in late-July it reached 53.2%.

截至目前，比特幣在加密市場的主導地位約為 54.3%，非常接近今年的最高主導地位。過去 12 個月的最高統治力是 2024 年 8 月中旬記錄的 54.37% 的統治力，過去 12 個月的最低統治力是 2023 年 9 月初的 46.35%。 4月中旬攀升至51.9%，7月下旬達53.2%。

Flow's analysis presents two possibilities to explain the deviation of the current cryptocurrency market cycle pattern from that of the traditional crypto market cycle pattern. His first theory is that what we see now is an atypical market cycle — a unique cycle which does not follow the traditional pattern. The second one is that the market is yet to witness the beginning of an actual bull run for the Bitcoin dominance to react. Both of these theories sound convincing.

Flow的分析提出了兩種可能性來解釋當前加密貨幣市場週期模式與傳統加密貨幣市場週期模式的偏差。他的第一個理論是，我們現在看到的是一個非典型的市場週期——一個不遵循傳統模式的獨特週期。第二個問題是，市場尚未見證真正的牛市開始，比特幣的主導地位才會做出反應。這兩種理論聽起來都令人信服。

Flow's analysis in his post, titled "A surprising fact about this crypto market cycle," highlights a potential deviation from the traditional pattern. In his view, the current market cycle could be unique, with different dynamics driving the relationship between Bitcoin dominance and the broader market sentiment. His analysis suggests that we may need to adjust our expectations regarding the typical market cycles and the performance of different cryptocurrency assets.

Flow 在其題為「有關加密貨幣市場週期的令人驚訝的事實」的文章中進行了分析，強調了與傳統模式的潛在偏差。在他看來，當前的市場週期可能是獨一無二的，不同的動態推動比特幣的主導地位與更廣泛的市場情緒之間的關係。他的分析表明，我們可能需要調整對典型市場週期和不同加密貨幣資產表現的預期。

Flow warns against expecting a widespread altcoin season. Instead, he suggests that the next phase of the bull market will likely be led by a few major cryptocurrencies. While smaller altcoins might see some growth, the days of indiscriminate investing in altcoins are over. Investors should carefully assess the potential of their holdings rather than relying on a broad altcoin rally.

Flow 警告不要期待廣泛的山寨幣季節。相反，他認為下一階段的牛市可能會由幾種主要的加密貨幣引領。雖然較小的山寨幣可能會出現一些增長，但不加區別地投資山寨幣的時代已經結束。投資者應仔細評估其持有的潛力，而不是依賴山寨幣的全面上漲。

In conclusion, What the crypto researcher hints at is that gone are the days when investors blindly choose Altcoins, investing little to understand what their potentials are. In simple terms, even if the market sees the beginning of an Altcoin season, you cannot expect your cryptos to pump up your wealth unless you are holding something that has true potential.

總之，加密貨幣研究人員暗示的是，投資者盲目選擇山寨幣、很少投資來了解其潛力的日子已經一去不復返了。簡而言之，即使市場看到山寨幣季節的開始，你也不能指望你的加密貨幣會增加你的財富，除非你持有具有真正潛力的東西。

Also Check Out: Bitcoin News: Is BTC Price About to Explode? 5 Shocking Predictions for the Next Surge!

另請參閱：比特幣新聞：比特幣價格即將爆炸嗎？下一次浪潮的 5 個令人震驚的預測！