比特幣的價格彈性正在被測試為開放興趣下降。這是潛在價格校正的警告信號，還是只是臨時blip？

Bitcoin's Open Interest Dip: Is a Price Correction Brewing?

比特幣的開放興趣下降：價格更正釀造嗎？

Bitcoin has been holding steady above $100,000 since early June, but the rally seems to have stalled. Are we in for a pullback? Let's dive into what's happening with Bitcoin's open interest (OI) and what it might mean for the price.

自6月初以來，比特幣一直保持穩定超過100,000美元，但集會似乎停滯了。我們要回調嗎？讓我們深入了解比特幣的開放興趣（OI）以及價格可能意味著什麼。

What's Happening with Bitcoin?

比特幣發生了什麼？

Bitcoin is currently trading about 6% below its all-time high of $112,000. It's showing impressive resilience amid global uncertainty, but it lacks the momentum needed to break into a full-blown price discovery phase. The market's stuck in a consolidation phase, with traders carefully monitoring macroeconomic factors like rising US Treasury yields, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, and geopolitical tensions.

比特幣目前的交易量低約6％，低於其112,000美元。在全球不確定性的情況下，它顯示出令人印象深刻的韌性，但缺乏進入成熟價格發現階段所需的勢頭。該市場陷入了整合階段，交易員仔細監測了宏觀經濟因素，例如上升的美國財政收益率，美聯儲的利率決策和地緣政治緊張局勢。

Open Interest: A Warning Sign?

開放興趣：警告信號？

According to analyst Axel Adler, data from the futures market is hinting at a cautious repositioning. Historically, significant drawdowns in open interest (between -20% and -25%) have coincided with Bitcoin price corrections ranging from 7% to 21%. Currently, the open interest is down by only about -3.5%, indicating a moderate reduction in leveraged positions. While this isn't a major red flag, it does suggest a cautious sentiment among futures traders.

分析師阿克塞爾·阿德勒（Axel Adler）表示，期貨市場的數據暗示了謹慎的重新定位。從歷史上看，開放興趣的顯著降低（在-20％到-25％之間）與比特幣價格校正範圍從7％到21％相吻合。目前，開放興趣僅下降了約-3.5％，表明槓杆位置的適度降低。儘管這不是主要的危險信號，但它確實表明期貨交易者中的謹慎情緒。

A moderate drop in OI suggests that investors are trimming their exposure but not entirely leaving the market. This could mean that the current range-bound price action will continue until a more decisive catalyst emerges.

OI的適度下降表明投資者正在修剪自己的曝光率，但並非完全離開市場。這可能意味著當前範圍內的價格行動將繼續進行，直到出現更具決定性的催化劑為止。

The Technical Picture

技術圖片

Bitcoin is currently trading around $105,910, caught between the $109,300 resistance zone and the $103,600 support level. The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages are all sloping upward, indicating a bullish structural signal. The 50-day SMA is acting as dynamic support near the $100K–$102K range.

比特幣目前的交易額約為105,910美元，在109,300美元的電阻區和103,600美元的支持水平之間。 50天，100天和200天簡單的移動平均值都在向上傾斜，表明看漲的結構信號。 50天的SMA充當了$ 10.K $ 102K範圍的動態支持。

If Bitcoin breaks above $109,300, it could signal renewed bullish momentum. However, a breakdown below $103,600 could lead to a retest of the $95K–$98K region.

如果比特幣的破損超過$ 109,300，則可能標誌著新的看漲勢頭。但是，低於$ 103,600的細分可能會導致重新測試95,000美元 - $ 98K地區。

My Take: Cautious Optimism

我的看法：謹慎的樂觀

While the drop in open interest and the current market consolidation might seem concerning, it's essential to remember that the market is just catching its breath. The moderate outflow of leveraged positions suggests traders are being cautious but not panicking. As long as Bitcoin holds above key support levels, the long-term bullish outlook remains intact.

儘管開放興趣和當前市場合併的下降似乎令人擔憂，但必須記住，市場只是在屏住呼吸。槓桿頭寸的中等流出表明貿易商謹慎但不恐慌。只要比特幣佔據關鍵支持水平以上，長期看漲的前景仍然完好無損。

The Bottom Line

底線

Bitcoin's open interest is hinting at potential risk, but the market remains balanced. Keep an eye on those key levels and be ready for a possible breakout or breakdown. Until then, buckle up and enjoy the ride!

比特幣的開放興趣暗示了潛在的風險，但市場仍然保持平衡。密切注意這些關鍵水平，並準備好突破或分解。在此之前，搭扣並享受旅程！