比特币的价格弹性正在被测试为开放兴趣下降。这是潜在价格校正的警告信号，还是只是临时blip？

Bitcoin's Open Interest Dip: Is a Price Correction Brewing?

比特币的开放兴趣下降：价格更正酿造吗？

Bitcoin has been holding steady above $100,000 since early June, but the rally seems to have stalled. Are we in for a pullback? Let's dive into what's happening with Bitcoin's open interest (OI) and what it might mean for the price.

自6月初以来，比特币一直保持稳定超过100,000美元，但集会似乎停滞了。我们要回调吗？让我们深入了解比特币的开放兴趣（OI）以及价格可能意味着什么。

What's Happening with Bitcoin?

比特币发生了什么？

Bitcoin is currently trading about 6% below its all-time high of $112,000. It's showing impressive resilience amid global uncertainty, but it lacks the momentum needed to break into a full-blown price discovery phase. The market's stuck in a consolidation phase, with traders carefully monitoring macroeconomic factors like rising US Treasury yields, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, and geopolitical tensions.

比特币目前的交易量低约6％，低于其112,000美元。在全球不确定性的情况下，它显示出令人印象深刻的韧性，但缺乏进入成熟价格发现阶段所需的势头。该市场陷入了整合阶段，交易员仔细监测了宏观经济因素，例如上升的美国财政收益率，美联储的利率决策和地缘政治紧张局势。

Open Interest: A Warning Sign?

开放兴趣：警告信号？

According to analyst Axel Adler, data from the futures market is hinting at a cautious repositioning. Historically, significant drawdowns in open interest (between -20% and -25%) have coincided with Bitcoin price corrections ranging from 7% to 21%. Currently, the open interest is down by only about -3.5%, indicating a moderate reduction in leveraged positions. While this isn't a major red flag, it does suggest a cautious sentiment among futures traders.

分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒（Axel Adler）表示，期货市场的数据暗示了谨慎的重新定位。从历史上看，开放兴趣的显着降低（在-20％到-25％之间）与比特币价格校正范围从7％到21％相吻合。目前，开放兴趣仅下降了约-3.5％，表明杠杆位置的适度降低。尽管这不是主要的危险信号，但它确实表明期货交易者中的谨慎情绪。

A moderate drop in OI suggests that investors are trimming their exposure but not entirely leaving the market. This could mean that the current range-bound price action will continue until a more decisive catalyst emerges.

OI的适度下降表明投资者正在修剪自己的曝光率，但并非完全离开市场。这可能意味着当前范围内的价格行动将继续进行，直到出现更具决定性的催化剂为止。

The Technical Picture

技术图片

Bitcoin is currently trading around $105,910, caught between the $109,300 resistance zone and the $103,600 support level. The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages are all sloping upward, indicating a bullish structural signal. The 50-day SMA is acting as dynamic support near the $100K–$102K range.

比特币目前的交易额约为105,910美元，在109,300美元的电阻区和103,600美元的支持水平之间。 50天，100天和200天简单的移动平均值都在向上倾斜，表明看涨的结构信号。 50天的SMA充当了$ 10.K $ 102K范围的动态支持。

If Bitcoin breaks above $109,300, it could signal renewed bullish momentum. However, a breakdown below $103,600 could lead to a retest of the $95K–$98K region.

如果比特币的破损超过$ 109,300，则可能标志着新的看涨势头。但是，低于$ 103,600的细分可能会导致重新测试95,000美元 - $ 98K地区。

My Take: Cautious Optimism

我的看法：谨慎的乐观

While the drop in open interest and the current market consolidation might seem concerning, it's essential to remember that the market is just catching its breath. The moderate outflow of leveraged positions suggests traders are being cautious but not panicking. As long as Bitcoin holds above key support levels, the long-term bullish outlook remains intact.

尽管开放兴趣和当前市场合并的下降似乎令人担忧，但必须记住，市场只是在屏住呼吸。杠杆头寸的中等流出表明贸易商谨慎但不恐慌。只要比特币占据关键支持水平以上，长期看涨的前景仍然完好无损。

The Bottom Line

底线

Bitcoin's open interest is hinting at potential risk, but the market remains balanced. Keep an eye on those key levels and be ready for a possible breakout or breakdown. Until then, buckle up and enjoy the ride!

比特币的开放兴趣暗示了潜在的风险，但市场仍然保持平衡。密切注意这些关键水平，并准备好突破或分解。在此之前，搭扣并享受旅程！