比特幣衰變通道™

X 領域內外都有許多 #Bitcoin 價格指南；短期交易的振盪指標/指數，以及長期規劃的預測。衰變通道是後者，但它是…的基礎。

A new model has been proposed to track the potential price moves of Bitcoin (BTC). The decay model is more conservative, taking into account the unique opportunities during the earlier days of Bitcoin trading.

人們提出了一種新模型來追蹤比特幣（BTC）的潛在價格走勢。考慮到比特幣交易早期的獨特機會，衰減模型更加保守。

The decay model was created to challenge previous curves, especially the prominent Rainbow chart and Stock-to-flow (S2F) model. Long-term models aim to complement sentiment metrics that focus on short-term trades. The S2F and rainbow model also predict the behavior of BTC once a bull cycle occurs. For instance, the Rainbow model predicts that for each bull cycle, the price will rally at least to the orange zone.

創建衰減模型是為了挑戰先前的曲線，特別是著名的彩虹圖和庫存流量 (S2F) 模型。長期模型旨在補充關注短期交易的情緒指標。 S2F 和彩虹模型也預測了牛市週期發生後 BTC 的行為。例如，彩虹模型預測，對於每個牛市週期，價格至少會上漲至橙色區域。

A model based on halvings is also skewed toward rapid growth and a fast move to a higher price range. The decay model takes into account more factors that can limit the price of BTC to a more rational level, in line with available liquidity and market sentiment.

基於減半的模型也傾向於快速成長和快速邁向更高的價格範圍。衰減模型考慮了更多因素，可以將 BTC 的價格限制在更合理的水平，與可用的流動性和市場情緒一致。

The decay model takes into account the upper side of the BTC price chart, instead of charting just the years-long trend of higher lows. This results in a diminishing growth boundary, reflected in the current subdued bull market.

衰減模型考慮了 BTC 價格圖表的上側，而不是只繪製多年來低點走高的趨勢。這導致成長邊界不斷縮小，這反映在當前低迷的牛市中。

The model reflects the 2024 reality of failing to rally to the $100,000 range, as expected due to the cycle of halvings. Instead, BTC achieved a smaller cycle top, but also a smaller drawdown, erasing just 29% of its value. Previous cycles offered bigger growth, but also drawdowns of at least 70%.

該模型反映了 2024 年由於減半週期而未能如預期反彈至 10 萬美元區間的現實。相反，BTC 實現了較小的周期頂部，但回撤也較小，僅蒸發了 29% 的價值。先前的周期提供了更大的成長，但也出現了至少 70% 的回檔。

Unlike other models, the decay chart does not plot the upper bound of BTC as an exponential move, avoiding the over-optimistic scenario. Cycle tops are also based on historical data, and not on scenarios suggesting irrational buying or hyper-bitcoinization.

與其他模型不同，衰減圖不會將 BTC 的上限繪製為指數走勢，從而避免了過度樂觀的情況。週期頂部也是基於歷史數據，而不是基於表明非理性購買或超級比特幣化的情境。

The decay model still envisions new highs for BTC at nearly 300% the current price, though with gradual growth until 2030.

衰減模型仍預計 BTC 將創下目前價格近 300% 的新高，但到 2030 年將逐步成長。