比特币衰变通道™

X 领域内外都有许多 #Bitcoin 价格指南；短期交易的振荡指标/指数，以及长期规划的预测。衰变通道是后者，但它是……的基础。

A new model has been proposed to track the potential price moves of Bitcoin (BTC). The decay model is more conservative, taking into account the unique opportunities during the earlier days of Bitcoin trading.

人们提出了一种新模型来跟踪比特币（BTC）的潜在价格走势。考虑到比特币交易早期的独特机会，衰减模型更加保守。

The decay model was created to challenge previous curves, especially the prominent Rainbow chart and Stock-to-flow (S2F) model. Long-term models aim to complement sentiment metrics that focus on short-term trades. The S2F and rainbow model also predict the behavior of BTC once a bull cycle occurs. For instance, the Rainbow model predicts that for each bull cycle, the price will rally at least to the orange zone.

创建衰减模型是为了挑战以前的曲线，特别是著名的彩虹图和库存流量 (S2F) 模型。长期模型旨在补充关注短期交易的情绪指标。 S2F 和彩虹模型还预测了牛市周期发生后 BTC 的行为。例如，彩虹模型预测，对于每个牛市周期，价格至少会上涨至橙色区域。

A model based on halvings is also skewed toward rapid growth and a fast move to a higher price range. The decay model takes into account more factors that can limit the price of BTC to a more rational level, in line with available liquidity and market sentiment.

基于减半的模型也倾向于快速增长和快速迈向更高的价格范围。衰减模型考虑了更多因素，可以将 BTC 的价格限制在更合理的水平，与可用的流动性和市场情绪相一致。

The decay model takes into account the upper side of the BTC price chart, instead of charting just the years-long trend of higher lows. This results in a diminishing growth boundary, reflected in the current subdued bull market.

衰减模型考虑了 BTC 价格图表的上侧，而不是仅绘制多年来低点走高的趋势。这导致增长边界不断缩小，这反映在当前低迷的牛市中。

The model reflects the 2024 reality of failing to rally to the $100,000 range, as expected due to the cycle of halvings. Instead, BTC achieved a smaller cycle top, but also a smaller drawdown, erasing just 29% of its value. Previous cycles offered bigger growth, but also drawdowns of at least 70%.

该模型反映了 2024 年由于减半周期而未能如预期反弹至 10 万美元区间的现实。相反，BTC 实现了较小的周期顶部，但回撤也较小，仅蒸发了 29% 的价值。之前的周期提供了更大的增长，但也出现了至少 70% 的回撤。

Unlike other models, the decay chart does not plot the upper bound of BTC as an exponential move, avoiding the over-optimistic scenario. Cycle tops are also based on historical data, and not on scenarios suggesting irrational buying or hyper-bitcoinization.

与其他模型不同，衰减图不会将 BTC 的上限绘制为指数走势，从而避免了过度乐观的情况。周期顶部也是基于历史数据，而不是基于表明非理性购买或超级比特币化的情景。

The decay model still envisions new highs for BTC at nearly 300% the current price, though with gradual growth until 2030.

衰减模型仍预计 BTC 会创下当前价格近 300% 的新高，但到 2030 年将逐步增长。