比特幣週期轉折點：資深交易員介入

資深交易員 Peter Brandt 和其他人討論了在機構採用和不斷變化的市場動態中，比特幣歷史上的四年周期是否仍然有效。

Bitcoin Cycle Turning Point: Veteran Trader Weighs In

比特幣週期轉折點：資深交易員介入

Is Bitcoin at a crossroads? Veteran trader Peter Brandt thinks so. The big question: will Bitcoin stick to its historical four-year cycle, or are we entering uncharted territory? It's a pivotal moment for anyone watching the crypto markets.

比特幣正處於十字路口嗎？資深交易員彼得·勃蘭特 (Peter Brandt) 這麼認為。最大的問題是：比特幣會堅持其歷史上的四年周期，還是我們正在進入未知領域？對於任何關注加密貨幣市場的人來說，這是一個關鍵時刻。

Brandt's Take: A Historic Crossroads

勃蘭特的觀點：歷史性的十字路口

Brandt's analysis hinges on Bitcoin's well-known four-year rhythm. Historically, the time between a market bottom and the next halving mirrors the time from that halving to the cycle peak. Bitcoin's November 2022 low was 533 days before the April 2024 halving, suggesting a potential high in early October 2025. But, Brandt also acknowledges that if Bitcoin doesn't hit its cycle top soon, it could enter a “historic price discovery phase,” potentially reaching $150,000 or even $185,000.

布蘭特的分析取決於比特幣眾所周知的四年節奏。從歷史上看，市場底部和下一次減半之間的時間反映了從減半到週期峰值的時間。比特幣在 2022 年 11 月的低點距 2024 年 4 月減半還有 533 天，這表明 2025 年 10 月上旬可能會出現高點。但是，布蘭特也承認，如果比特幣不能很快達到週期頂部，它可能會進入“歷史性的價格發現階段”，有可能達到 15 萬美元甚至 18.5 萬美元。

The Four-Year Cycle Under Pressure

壓力下的四年周期

While Bitcoin has maintained a perfect record across three cycles, the question remains: does this pattern still hold in an era of institutional inflows and ETFs? Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes the old Bitcoin cycle is dead, arguing that past bull runs were driven by liquidity, not halvings. Hayes suggests Bitcoin's future is shaped more by central banks and global economics than by its own supply schedule. Echoing this sentiment, CF Benchmarks suggests Bitcoin could close the year near $148,500 if current market conditions persist, driven by renewed investor confidence and easing macroeconomic headwinds.

儘管比特幣在三個週期中都保持了完美的記錄，但問題仍然存在：在機構資金流入和 ETF 時代，這種模式是否仍然成立？ BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 認為舊的比特幣週期已經死亡，他認為過去的牛市是由流動性驅動的，而不是減半。海斯表示，比特幣的未來更多地取決於央行和全球經濟，而不是其自身的供應計劃。 CF Benchmarks 與這種情緒相呼應，表明如果在投資者信心恢復和宏觀經濟逆風緩解的推動下，當前市場狀況持續下去，比特幣今年收盤價可能會接近 148,500 美元。

Broader Market Optimism

更廣泛的市場樂觀情緒

Despite differing opinions on the cycle's validity, most analysts remain bullish. Arthur Hayes and Joe Burnett foresee Bitcoin potentially hitting $250,000 by late 2025, fueled by sustained liquidity. CF Benchmarks also points to Bitcoin's growing role as a hedge against currency devaluation, attracting investors seeking protection from monetary uncertainty. The rise of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, along with the projected surge in stablecoin value, paints an optimistic picture for the wider crypto sector.

儘管對周期的有效性存在不同看法，但大多數分析師仍然看好。 Arthur Hayes 和 Joe Burnett 預計，在持續流動性的推動下，到 2025 年末，比特幣可能會達到 25 萬美元。 CF Benchmarks 還指出，比特幣作為貨幣貶值對沖工具的作用日益增強，吸引了尋求免受貨幣不確定性影響的投資者。比特幣和以太坊 ETF 的崛起，以及穩定幣價值的預計飆升，為更廣泛的加密行業描繪了一幅樂觀的圖景。

Personal Take

個人看法

I'm inclined to agree with the analysts emphasizing Bitcoin's shift towards a macroeconomic asset. The increasing institutional interest and integration with traditional financial systems suggest that Bitcoin's price movements will be more closely tied to global economic policies than ever before. The approval and proliferation of Bitcoin ETFs, for example, have opened the floodgates to a new wave of investors who previously found it too difficult or risky to invest directly. The current macroeconomic environment, with governments grappling with record debt levels and slowing growth, further solidifies Bitcoin's role as a hedge against currency devaluation.

我傾向於同意分析師強調比特幣向宏觀經濟資產轉變的觀點。機構興趣的增加以及與傳統金融體系的融合表明，比特幣的價格走勢將比以往任何時候都與全球經濟政策更加緊密地聯繫在一起。例如，比特幣 ETF 的批准和激增為新一波投資者打開了大門，他們之前發現直接投資太困難或風險太大。當前的宏觀經濟環境，政府正在努力應對創紀錄的債務水平和增長放緩，進一步鞏固了比特幣作為貨幣貶值對沖工具的作用。

What's Next?

接下來是什麼？

Whether Bitcoin adheres to its historical cycle or forges a new path remains to be seen. The coming weeks will be decisive. But one thing's for sure: the ride is going to be interesting. Buckle up, folks! It's gonna be a wild one!

比特幣是堅持歷史週期還是開闢新路徑還有待觀察。未來幾週將是決定性的。但有一件事是肯定的：旅程將會很有趣。扣好安全帶，伙計們！這將是一場狂野的比賽！