比特币周期转折点：资深交易员介入

资深交易员 Peter Brandt 和其他人讨论了在机构采用和不断变化的市场动态中，比特币历史上的四年周期是否仍然有效。

Bitcoin Cycle Turning Point: Veteran Trader Weighs In

比特币周期转折点：资深交易员介入

Is Bitcoin at a crossroads? Veteran trader Peter Brandt thinks so. The big question: will Bitcoin stick to its historical four-year cycle, or are we entering uncharted territory? It's a pivotal moment for anyone watching the crypto markets.

比特币正处于十字路口吗？资深交易员彼得·勃兰特 (Peter Brandt) 这么认为。最大的问题是：比特币会坚持其历史上的四年周期，还是我们正在进入未知领域？对于任何关注加密货币市场的人来说，这是一个关键时刻。

Brandt's Take: A Historic Crossroads

勃兰特的观点：历史性的十字路口

Brandt's analysis hinges on Bitcoin's well-known four-year rhythm. Historically, the time between a market bottom and the next halving mirrors the time from that halving to the cycle peak. Bitcoin's November 2022 low was 533 days before the April 2024 halving, suggesting a potential high in early October 2025. But, Brandt also acknowledges that if Bitcoin doesn't hit its cycle top soon, it could enter a “historic price discovery phase,” potentially reaching $150,000 or even $185,000.

布兰特的分析取决于比特币众所周知的四年节奏。从历史上看，市场底部和下一次减半之间的时间反映了从减半到周期峰值的时间。比特币在 2022 年 11 月的低点距 2024 年 4 月减半还有 533 天，这表明 2025 年 10 月上旬可能会出现高点。但是，布兰特也承认，如果比特币不能很快达到周期顶部，它可能会进入“历史性的价格发现阶段”，有可能达到 15 万美元甚至 18.5 万美元。

The Four-Year Cycle Under Pressure

压力下的四年周期

While Bitcoin has maintained a perfect record across three cycles, the question remains: does this pattern still hold in an era of institutional inflows and ETFs? Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes the old Bitcoin cycle is dead, arguing that past bull runs were driven by liquidity, not halvings. Hayes suggests Bitcoin's future is shaped more by central banks and global economics than by its own supply schedule. Echoing this sentiment, CF Benchmarks suggests Bitcoin could close the year near $148,500 if current market conditions persist, driven by renewed investor confidence and easing macroeconomic headwinds.

尽管比特币在三个周期中都保持了完美的记录，但问题仍然存在：在机构资金流入和 ETF 时代，这种模式是否仍然成立？ BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 认为旧的比特币周期已经死亡，他认为过去的牛市是由流动性驱动的，而不是减半。海斯表示，比特币的未来更多地取决于央行和全球经济，而不是其自身的供应计划。 CF Benchmarks 与这种情绪相呼应，表明如果在投资者信心恢复和宏观经济逆风缓解的推动下，当前市场状况持续下去，比特币今年收盘价可能会接近 148,500 美元。

Broader Market Optimism

更广泛的市场乐观情绪

Despite differing opinions on the cycle's validity, most analysts remain bullish. Arthur Hayes and Joe Burnett foresee Bitcoin potentially hitting $250,000 by late 2025, fueled by sustained liquidity. CF Benchmarks also points to Bitcoin's growing role as a hedge against currency devaluation, attracting investors seeking protection from monetary uncertainty. The rise of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, along with the projected surge in stablecoin value, paints an optimistic picture for the wider crypto sector.

尽管对周期的有效性存在不同看法，但大多数分析师仍然看好。 Arthur Hayes 和 Joe Burnett 预计，在持续流动性的推动下，到 2025 年末，比特币可能会达到 25 万美元。 CF Benchmarks 还指出，比特币作为货币贬值对冲工具的作用日益增强，吸引了寻求免受货币不确定性影响的投资者。比特币和以太坊 ETF 的崛起，以及稳定币价值的预计飙升，为更广泛的加密行业描绘了一幅乐观的图景。

Personal Take

个人看法

I'm inclined to agree with the analysts emphasizing Bitcoin's shift towards a macroeconomic asset. The increasing institutional interest and integration with traditional financial systems suggest that Bitcoin's price movements will be more closely tied to global economic policies than ever before. The approval and proliferation of Bitcoin ETFs, for example, have opened the floodgates to a new wave of investors who previously found it too difficult or risky to invest directly. The current macroeconomic environment, with governments grappling with record debt levels and slowing growth, further solidifies Bitcoin's role as a hedge against currency devaluation.

我倾向于同意分析师强调比特币向宏观经济资产转变的观点。机构兴趣的增加以及与传统金融体系的融合表明，比特币的价格走势将比以往任何时候都与全球经济政策更加紧密地联系在一起。例如，比特币 ETF 的批准和激增为新一波投资者打开了大门，他们之前发现直接投资太困难或风险太大。当前的宏观经济环境，政府正在努力应对创纪录的债务水平和增长放缓，进一步巩固了比特币作为货币贬值对冲工具的作用。

What's Next?

接下来是什么？

Whether Bitcoin adheres to its historical cycle or forges a new path remains to be seen. The coming weeks will be decisive. But one thing's for sure: the ride is going to be interesting. Buckle up, folks! It's gonna be a wild one!

比特币是坚持历史周期还是开辟新路径还有待观察。未来几周将是决定性的。但有一件事是肯定的：旅程将会很有趣。扣好安全带，伙计们！这将是一场狂野的比赛！