比特幣週期、風險投資預測、70% 下跌：這是怎麼回事？

風險投資公司預測比特幣會下跌，引發了關於該週期相關性的爭論。歷史會重演，還是新的力量在發揮作用？

Bitcoin Cycle, VC Prediction, 70% Drop: What's the Deal?

比特幣週期、風險投資預測、70% 下跌：這是怎麼回事？

Hold on to your hats, folks! The Bitcoin rollercoaster is gearing up for another potential dip. With predictions of a 70% drop swirling, it's time to dissect what's fueling this buzz.

各位，請戴好你們的帽子！比特幣的過山車正在準備迎接另一次潛在的下跌。隨著 70% 跌幅的預測不斷出現，是時候剖析一下是什麼推動了這一熱潮。

The VC Prediction: A Reality Check?

風險投資預測：現實檢驗？

Vineet Budki, CEO of Sigma Capital, is stirring the pot with his forecast of a 65% to 70% Bitcoin drawdown within the next two years. His reasoning? A widespread misunderstanding of Bitcoin's true utility. Budki argues that this lack of comprehension will lead to panic selling at the first sign of trouble, reinforcing traditional market cycle behavior. It's like owning a fancy gadget without knowing how to use it – eventually, you'll probably ditch it.

Sigma Capital 首席執行官 Vineet Budki 預測比特幣在未來兩年內將下跌 65% 至 70%，這引發了軒然大波。他的推理？對比特幣真正效用的普遍誤解。布德基認​​為，這種缺乏理解將導致一出現麻煩跡象就會出現恐慌性拋售，從而強化傳統的市場週期行為。這就像擁有一個精美的小玩意卻不知道如何使用它——最終，你可能會拋棄它。

The Cycle Debate: Is History Repeating?

週期辯論：歷史正在重演嗎？

This prediction has reignited the age-old debate about Bitcoin's four-year cycle. Is it still relevant in 2025? Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, thinks not, pointing to macroeconomic factors like interest rates as the new driving forces. However, Seamus Rocca, CEO of Xapo Bank, believes the cycle persists because investors still treat Bitcoin as a risk-on asset. It's a classic clash of perspectives: is Bitcoin beholden to its past, or is it forging a new path?

這一預測重新引發了關於比特幣四年周期的長期爭論。 2025 年它仍然有意義嗎？ BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 不這麼認為，他指出利率等宏觀經濟因素是新的驅動力。然而，Xapo 銀行首席執行官 Seamus Rocca 認為，這種週期持續存在，因為投資者仍然將比特幣視為風險資產。這是典型的觀點衝突：比特幣是受制於它的過去，還是正在開闢一條新道路？

MicroStrategy and the S&P 500: A Game Changer?

MicroStrategy 和 S&P 500：遊戲規則改變者？

Amidst the cycle chatter, there's another interesting angle: MicroStrategy's potential inclusion in the S&P 500. Analysts at 10x Research estimate a 70% chance of this happening, driven by potentially strong Q3 2025 earnings. If MicroStrategy, a major corporate holder of Bitcoin, joins the S&P 500, it could trigger massive inflows from index funds, effectively mainstreaming Bitcoin exposure. Wall Street is taking notice.

在周期討論中，還有另一個有趣的角度：MicroStrategy 可能被納入標準普爾 500 指數。 10x Research 的分析師估計，在 2025 年第三季度潛在強勁盈利的推動下，這種情況發生的可能性為 70%。如果比特幣的主要企業持有者 MicroStrategy 加入標準普爾 500 指數，可能會引髮指數基金的大量資金流入，從而有效地將比特幣風險納入主流。華爾街正在註意到這一點。

My Two Satoshis

我的兩個中本聰

While a 70% drop sounds scary, remember that Bitcoin's volatility is part of the package. Budki's point about understanding what you own is crucial. If you believe in Bitcoin's long-term potential, short-term dips become less daunting. Also, MicroStrategy's potential S&P 500 inclusion could be a watershed moment, bringing Bitcoin to a wider audience. While it's not investment advice, I think the key here is to stay informed, understand your risk tolerance, and maybe, just maybe, buy the dip.

雖然 70% 的跌幅聽起來很可怕，但請記住，比特幣的波動性也是其中的一部分。布基關於了解你所擁有的東西的觀點至關重要。如果你相信比特幣的長期潛力，短期下跌就不會那麼令人畏懼。此外，MicroStrategy 可能被納入標準普爾 500 指數，這可能是一個分水嶺，將比特幣帶給更廣泛的受眾。雖然這不是投資建議，但我認為關鍵是要隨時了解情況，了解您的風險承受能力，也許，只是也許，逢低買入。

The Bottom Line

底線

So, will Bitcoin crash? Will MicroStrategy make it to the S&P 500? Only time will tell. But one thing's for sure: the Bitcoin story is never boring. Keep your eyes peeled, stay curious, and remember to enjoy the ride. After all, in the world of crypto, anything is possible!

那麼，比特幣會崩盤嗎？ MicroStrategy 會躋身標準普爾 500 指數嗎？只有時間才能證明一切。但有一件事是肯定的：比特幣的故事永遠不會無聊。保持警惕，保持好奇心，並記住享受這段旅程。畢竟，在加密世界裡，一切皆有可能！