比特币周期、风险投资预测、70% 下跌：这是怎么回事？

风险投资公司预测比特币会下跌，引发了关于该周期相关性的争论。历史会重演，还是新的力量在发挥作用？

Bitcoin Cycle, VC Prediction, 70% Drop: What's the Deal?

比特币周期、风险投资预测、70% 下跌：这是怎么回事？

Hold on to your hats, folks! The Bitcoin rollercoaster is gearing up for another potential dip. With predictions of a 70% drop swirling, it's time to dissect what's fueling this buzz.

各位，请戴好你们的帽子！比特币的过山车正在准备迎接另一次潜在的下跌。随着 70% 跌幅的预测不断出现，是时候剖析一下是什么推动了这一热潮。

The VC Prediction: A Reality Check?

风险投资预测：现实检验？

Vineet Budki, CEO of Sigma Capital, is stirring the pot with his forecast of a 65% to 70% Bitcoin drawdown within the next two years. His reasoning? A widespread misunderstanding of Bitcoin's true utility. Budki argues that this lack of comprehension will lead to panic selling at the first sign of trouble, reinforcing traditional market cycle behavior. It's like owning a fancy gadget without knowing how to use it – eventually, you'll probably ditch it.

Sigma Capital 首席执行官 Vineet Budki 预测比特币在未来两年内将下跌 65% 至 70%，这引发了轩然大波。他的推理？对比特币真正效用的普遍误解。布德基认​​为，这种缺乏理解将导致一出现麻烦迹象就会出现恐慌性抛售，从而强化传统的市场周期行为。这就像拥有一个精美的小玩意却不知道如何使用它——最终，你可能会抛弃它。

The Cycle Debate: Is History Repeating?

周期辩论：历史正在重演吗？

This prediction has reignited the age-old debate about Bitcoin's four-year cycle. Is it still relevant in 2025? Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, thinks not, pointing to macroeconomic factors like interest rates as the new driving forces. However, Seamus Rocca, CEO of Xapo Bank, believes the cycle persists because investors still treat Bitcoin as a risk-on asset. It's a classic clash of perspectives: is Bitcoin beholden to its past, or is it forging a new path?

这一预测重新引发了关于比特币四年周期的长期争论。 2025 年它仍然有意义吗？ BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 不这么认为，他指出利率等宏观经济因素是新的驱动力。然而，Xapo 银行首席执行官 Seamus Rocca 认为，这种周期持续存在，因为投资者仍然将比特币视为风险资产。这是典型的观点冲突：比特币是受制于它的过去，还是正在开辟一条新道路？

MicroStrategy and the S&P 500: A Game Changer?

MicroStrategy 和 S&P 500：游戏规则改变者？

Amidst the cycle chatter, there's another interesting angle: MicroStrategy's potential inclusion in the S&P 500. Analysts at 10x Research estimate a 70% chance of this happening, driven by potentially strong Q3 2025 earnings. If MicroStrategy, a major corporate holder of Bitcoin, joins the S&P 500, it could trigger massive inflows from index funds, effectively mainstreaming Bitcoin exposure. Wall Street is taking notice.

在周期讨论中，还有另一个有趣的角度：MicroStrategy 可能被纳入标准普尔 500 指数。10x Research 的分析师估计，在 2025 年第三季度潜在强劲盈利的推动下，这种情况发生的可能性为 70%。如果比特币的主要企业持有者 MicroStrategy 加入标准普尔 500 指数，可能会引发指数基金的大量资金流入，从而有效地将比特币风险纳入主流。华尔街正在注意到这一点。

My Two Satoshis

我的两个中本聪

While a 70% drop sounds scary, remember that Bitcoin's volatility is part of the package. Budki's point about understanding what you own is crucial. If you believe in Bitcoin's long-term potential, short-term dips become less daunting. Also, MicroStrategy's potential S&P 500 inclusion could be a watershed moment, bringing Bitcoin to a wider audience. While it's not investment advice, I think the key here is to stay informed, understand your risk tolerance, and maybe, just maybe, buy the dip.

虽然 70% 的跌幅听起来很可怕，但请记住，比特币的波动性也是其中的一部分。布基关于了解你所拥有的东西的观点至关重要。如果你相信比特币的长期潜力，短期下跌就不会那么令人畏惧。此外，MicroStrategy 可能被纳入标准普尔 500 指数，这可能是一个分水岭，将比特币带给更广泛的受众。虽然这不是投资建议，但我认为关键是要随时了解情况，了解您的风险承受能力，也许，只是也许，逢低买入。

The Bottom Line

底线

So, will Bitcoin crash? Will MicroStrategy make it to the S&P 500? Only time will tell. But one thing's for sure: the Bitcoin story is never boring. Keep your eyes peeled, stay curious, and remember to enjoy the ride. After all, in the world of crypto, anything is possible!

那么，比特币会崩盘吗？ MicroStrategy 会跻身标准普尔 500 指数吗？只有时间才能证明一切。但有一件事是肯定的：比特币的故事永远不会无聊。保持警惕，保持好奇心，并记住享受这段旅程。毕竟，在加密世界里，一切皆有可能！