比特幣、週期和崩盤：四年模式已死嗎？

Arthur Hayes 表示，傳統的比特幣四年周期已經結束。他認為，全球流動性和央行政策現在推動了比特幣上漲，而不是減半事件。

Bitcoin, Cycle, and Crash: Is the Four-Year Pattern Dead?

比特幣、週期和崩盤：四年模式已死嗎？

Is the Bitcoin cycle really dead? Arthur Hayes thinks so. Forget the halving; it's all about liquidity now. The old four-year pattern may be obsolete, with global monetary policies taking the wheel. Let's dive in.

比特幣週期真的死了嗎？阿瑟·海耶斯這樣認為。忘記減半吧；現在一切都與流動性有關。隨著全球貨幣政策的主導，舊的四年模式可能已經過時。讓我們深入了解一下。

The End of the Halving Cycle?

減半週期結束？

For years, the Bitcoin community has relied on the four-year halving cycle: a bull run followed by a crash. Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, argues this pattern is outdated. In his recent blog post, "Long Live the King!", Hayes claims that Bitcoin's price movements are no longer tied to halvings but are driven by global liquidity.

多年來，比特幣社區一直依賴四年的減半週期：牛市之後是崩盤。 BitMEX 聯合創始人海耶斯認為這種模式已經過時。海耶斯在最近的博客文章“國王萬歲！”中聲稱，比特幣的價格走勢不再與減半掛鉤，而是由全球流動性驅動。

Hayes points out that previous Bitcoin bull runs weren’t triggered by halvings but by cheap and plentiful money. Conversely, crashes occurred when credit tightened. CoinDesk made a similar argument in 2023, suggesting that BTC's cycles are linked to fiat money supply rather than halving events alone.

海耶斯指出，之前的比特幣牛市並不是由減半引發的，而是由廉價且充足的資金引發的。相反，當信貸收緊時，就會發生崩盤。 CoinDesk 在 2023 年也提出了類似的論點，認為 BTC 的周期與法定貨幣供應量有關，而不僅僅是減半事件。

Global Liquidity: The New Driver

全球流動性：新驅動力

Hayes believes the current market is influenced more by political factors than halving charts. He notes that the U.S. and China, the world’s largest economies, are leaning towards easy money policies.

海耶斯認為，當前市場更多地受到政治因素的影響，而不是減半圖表。他指出，美國和中國作為世界上最大的經濟體，都傾向於寬鬆的貨幣政策。

In the U.S., a newly elected President Trump wants to stimulate the economy and is pushing for lower interest rates. Treasury policies are adding liquidity to the market. Meanwhile, China is combating deflation and easing credit conditions. Hayes emphasizes that Bitcoin's value is primarily measured against the U.S. dollar in the current global system, making these policies crucial.

在美國，新當選的總統特朗普希望刺激經濟，並正在推動降低利率。財政部政策正在為市場增加流動性。與此同時，中國正在對抗通貨緊縮並放鬆信貸條件。海耶斯強調，在當前的全球體系中，比特幣的價值主要是根據美元來衡量的，因此這些政策至關重要。

Hayes summed it up: "Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future."

海耶斯總結道：“聽聽我們華盛頓和北京的貨幣大師的意見。他們明確表示，貨幣將變得更便宜、更充足。因此，在對這個極有可能的未來的預期中，比特幣繼續上漲。”

A Personal Take: Adapt or Get Wrecked

個人看法：要么適應，要么被毀

Okay, so the old model might be fading. What does this mean for us? Well, it's time to ditch the rigid four-year cycle mindset. We need to pay closer attention to global economic policies, especially those of the U.S. and China. These policies will likely dictate Bitcoin's next big moves. For example, if Trump's administration really does heat up the economy while China eases monetary policy, we could see a prolonged bull run.

好吧，所以舊模型可能正在褪色。這對我們意味著什麼？好吧，是時候拋棄僵化的四年周期思維模式了。我們需要密切關注全球經濟政策，特別是美國和中國的經濟政策。這些政策可能會決定比特幣的下一步重大舉措。例如，如果特朗普政府確實讓經濟升溫，而中國放鬆貨幣政策，我們可能會看到長期的牛市。

The Bottom Line

底線

The Bitcoin landscape is evolving. The traditional halving cycle might be losing its grip, with global liquidity and central bank policies becoming the new kings. Bitcoin remains a powerful asset, but its trajectory depends on the decisions made in Washington and Beijing, not just block rewards.

比特幣格局正在不斷演變。隨著全球流動性和央行政策成為新的王者，傳統的減半週期可能會失去控制。比特幣仍然是一種強大的資產，但其發展軌跡取決於華盛頓和北京做出的決定，而不僅僅是區塊獎勵。

So, buckle up, keep an eye on those monetary policies, and remember: in the wild world of crypto, adaptability is your best friend. Who knows? Maybe this new cycle will bring even bigger surprises. Stay frosty!

因此，係好安全帶，密切關注這些貨幣政策，並記住：在加密貨幣的狂野世界中，適應性是你最好的朋友。誰知道？也許這個新的周期會帶來更大的驚喜。保持冷淡！