比特币、周期和崩盘：四年模式已死吗？

Arthur Hayes 表示，传统的比特币四年周期已经结束。他认为，全球流动性和央行政策现在推动了比特币上涨，而不是减半事件。

Bitcoin, Cycle, and Crash: Is the Four-Year Pattern Dead?

比特币、周期和崩盘：四年模式已死吗？

Is the Bitcoin cycle really dead? Arthur Hayes thinks so. Forget the halving; it's all about liquidity now. The old four-year pattern may be obsolete, with global monetary policies taking the wheel. Let's dive in.

比特币周期真的死了吗？阿瑟·海耶斯这样认为。忘记减半吧；现在一切都与流动性有关。随着全球货币政策的主导，旧的四年模式可能已经过时。让我们深入了解一下。

The End of the Halving Cycle?

减半周期结束？

For years, the Bitcoin community has relied on the four-year halving cycle: a bull run followed by a crash. Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, argues this pattern is outdated. In his recent blog post, "Long Live the King!", Hayes claims that Bitcoin's price movements are no longer tied to halvings but are driven by global liquidity.

多年来，比特币社区一直依赖四年的减半周期：牛市之后是崩盘。 BitMEX 联合创始人海耶斯认为这种模式已经过时。海耶斯在最近的博客文章“国王万岁！”中声称，比特币的价格走势不再与减半挂钩，而是由全球流动性驱动。

Hayes points out that previous Bitcoin bull runs weren’t triggered by halvings but by cheap and plentiful money. Conversely, crashes occurred when credit tightened. CoinDesk made a similar argument in 2023, suggesting that BTC's cycles are linked to fiat money supply rather than halving events alone.

海耶斯指出，之前的比特币牛市并不是由减半引发的，而是由廉价且充足的资金引发的。相反，当信贷收紧时，就会发生崩盘。 CoinDesk 在 2023 年也提出了类似的论点，认为 BTC 的周期与法定货币供应量有关，而不仅仅是减半事件。

Global Liquidity: The New Driver

全球流动性：新驱动力

Hayes believes the current market is influenced more by political factors than halving charts. He notes that the U.S. and China, the world’s largest economies, are leaning towards easy money policies.

海耶斯认为，当前市场更多地受到政治因素的影响，而不是减半图表。他指出，美国和中国作为世界上最大的经济体，都倾向于宽松的货币政策。

In the U.S., a newly elected President Trump wants to stimulate the economy and is pushing for lower interest rates. Treasury policies are adding liquidity to the market. Meanwhile, China is combating deflation and easing credit conditions. Hayes emphasizes that Bitcoin's value is primarily measured against the U.S. dollar in the current global system, making these policies crucial.

在美国，新当选的总统特朗普希望刺激经济，并正在推动降低利率。财政部政策正在为市场增加流动性。与此同时，中国正在对抗通货紧缩并放松信贷条件。海耶斯强调，在当前的全球体系中，比特币的价值主要是根据美元来衡量的，因此这些政策至关重要。

Hayes summed it up: "Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future."

海耶斯总结道：“听听我们华盛顿和北京的货币大师的意见。他们明确表示，货币将变得更便宜、更充足。因此，在对这个极有可能的未来的预期中，比特币继续上涨。”

A Personal Take: Adapt or Get Wrecked

个人看法：要么适应，要么被毁

Okay, so the old model might be fading. What does this mean for us? Well, it's time to ditch the rigid four-year cycle mindset. We need to pay closer attention to global economic policies, especially those of the U.S. and China. These policies will likely dictate Bitcoin's next big moves. For example, if Trump's administration really does heat up the economy while China eases monetary policy, we could see a prolonged bull run.

好吧，所以旧模型可能正在褪色。这对我们意味着什么？好吧，是时候抛弃僵化的四年周期思维模式了。我们需要密切关注全球经济政策，特别是美国和中国的经济政策。这些政策可能会决定比特币的下一步重大举措。例如，如果特朗普政府确实让经济升温，而中国放松货币政策，我们可能会看到长期的牛市。

The Bottom Line

底线

The Bitcoin landscape is evolving. The traditional halving cycle might be losing its grip, with global liquidity and central bank policies becoming the new kings. Bitcoin remains a powerful asset, but its trajectory depends on the decisions made in Washington and Beijing, not just block rewards.

比特币格局正在不断演变。随着全球流动性和央行政策成为新的王者，传统的减半周期可能会失去控制。比特币仍然是一种强大的资产，但其发展轨迹取决于华盛顿和北京做出的决定，而不仅仅是区块奖励。

So, buckle up, keep an eye on those monetary policies, and remember: in the wild world of crypto, adaptability is your best friend. Who knows? Maybe this new cycle will bring even bigger surprises. Stay frosty!

因此，系好安全带，密切关注这些货币政策，并记住：在加密货币的狂野世界中，适应性是你最好的朋友。谁知道？也许这个新的周期会带来更大的惊喜。保持冷淡！