#比特幣大崩盤即將來臨嗎？

這就是我的感受和首要問題。 2024 年，加密貨幣市場的回報非常糟糕，普遍的共識是是否會發生大崩盤。

Bitcoin price has remained a subject of concern among traders and investors, particularly with the recent market downturn and speculation about a possible crash. However, the founder of MN Capital has expressed optimism, reassuring investors that such fears are unfounded.

比特幣價格仍然是交易者和投資者關注的話題，特別是在最近的市場低迷和對可能崩盤的猜測的情況下。然而，MN Capital 的創辦人表達了樂觀態度，向投資人保證這種擔憂是沒有根據的。

In his view, the current market fluctuations are part of normal cyclic movements and do not indicate a precursor to a large-scale crash.

他認為，目前的市場波動是正常週期性波動的一部分，並不預示大規模崩盤的前兆。

Bitcoin price has shown resilience, rising by almost 1% in the day. At the time of writing, BTC traded at $55,636. This upward trend is observed despite the broader market backdrop and concerns over its further evolution.

比特幣價格表現出韌性，當天上漲了近 1%。截至撰寫本文時，BTC 交易價格為 55,636 美元。儘管存在更廣泛的市場背景以及對其進一步演變的擔憂，但仍觀察到這種上升趨勢。

Meanwhile, whale activity has once again shown interest in Bitcoin. On-chain data highlights that since September 1, these three whales have purchased about 2,814 BTCs. At an average price of $55,887 each, their total purchase is valued at approximately $157.3 million. These large purchases indicate a strong belief among major investors in the future value of Bitcoin, further bolstering the notion that a market crash is unlikely.

同時，鯨魚活動再次展現對比特幣的興趣。鏈上數據顯示，自 9 月 1 日以來，這三隻鯨魚已購買了約 2,814 個 BTC。以每件平均價格 55,887 美元計算，他們的總購買價值約為 1.573 億美元。這些大量購買顯示主要投資者對比特幣的未來價值抱有強烈信心，進一步強化了市場不太可能崩潰的觀點。

Market Indicators Point to Stability Amidst Downtrend

市場指標顯示在下行趨勢保持穩定

Despite the current market status, particularly for Bitcoin, may not be as dire as it appears. The following charts show that the BTC price is still trading within a descending channel, indicating a potential trend reversal in the current bearish market.

儘管目前的市場狀況，尤其是比特幣的市場狀況，可能不像看起來那麼可怕。下圖顯示，BTC價格仍在下降通道內交易，顯示目前看跌市場可能出現趨勢逆轉。

Highlighting the possibility of a breakout, several experts and investors speculate on Bitcoin price rising above a critical resistance level, which is currently positioned slightly above $55,000.

一些專家和投資者推測比特幣價格將升至關鍵阻力位之上，該阻力位目前略高於 55,000 美元，這凸顯了突破的可能性。

As BTC whale activity continues to rise, investors observe that Bitcoin price is getting close to its resistance level in the current price charts. A breakout could lead to the price returning to the $60,000 range. However, some market participants remain cautious, viewing the current correction as a normal process in the Bitcoin market cycle and the foundation for further growth.

隨著比特幣鯨魚活動持續增加，投資者觀察到比特幣價格正在接近當前價格圖表中的阻力位。突破可能導致價格回到 60,000 美元區間。不過，一些市場參與者仍保持謹慎態度，認為目前的調整是比特幣市場週期的正常過程，也是進一步成長的基礎。

The founder of MN Capital noted that this is quite natural in cryptocurrencies. Although, the decrease of about 26% from its recent all-time high is not alarming. Therefore, it is a regular market going through natural cycles and not a prelude to a significant crash.

MN Capital 的創辦人指出，這在加密貨幣中是很自然的。不過，較近期歷史高點下降約 26% 並不令人擔憂。因此，這是一個正在經歷自然週期的正常市場，而不是重大崩盤的前奏。

Whales Signal Confidence Amid Fear and Greed Index Concerns

鯨魚在恐懼和貪婪指數擔憂中發出信心信號

Another clear indication that Bitcoin has a bright future is the accumulation of the large holders, the so-called “whales.” Whales are usually inclined to make long-term decisions, and the recent trends indicate their expectation of a comeback. Since early September, three whales have bought a lot of BTC, using the current low prices that the market offers after the correction.

比特幣擁有光明前景的另一個明顯跡像是大持有者（即所謂的「鯨魚」）的累積。鯨魚通常傾向於做出長期決定，最近的趨勢表明他們期待捲土重來。自9月初以來，三隻鯨魚利用市場調整後提供的當前低價買入了大量比特幣。

The Fear and Greed Index, an important tool to measure the market’s sentiment, is currently at 22 points, that is, the levels observed at the time of the FTX exchange crash in November 2022. This measure, which captures the sentiment of fear of the investors in the market, can be used to identify entry points by contrarian investors.

恐懼與貪婪指數是衡量市場情緒的重要工具，目前為 22 點，即 2022 年 11 月 FTX 交易所崩盤時觀察到的水平。逆向投資者來確定切入點。

The founder of MN Capital pointed this out in his analysis, stating that even though the sentiment is negative, the market fundamentals are much better than the ones that existed during the FTX crisis.

MN Capital創辦人在分析中指出了這一點，他表示，儘管市場情緒消極，但市場基本面比FTX危機期間好得多。

In his view, it could be unwise to have a negative outlook as the price of Bitcoin currently stands at roughly $55,000, which is still far from the record high. This year’s environment is much better than last year’s when the market faced significant losses due to major crashes. Institutional interest has been growing, and the macroeconomic situation is more favourable.

在他看來，持有負面前景可能是不明智的，因為比特幣的價格目前約為 55,000 美元，距離歷史高點還很遠。今年的環境比去年好得多，去年市場因重大崩盤而遭受重大損失。機構興趣不斷增強，宏觀經濟情勢更有利。

Looking Ahead: Market Dynamics and Bitcoin’s Next Move

展望未來：市場動態與比特幣的下一步行動

As such, many see key markets’ weak economic growth and the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate cuts as positive for Bitcoin’s price as they may see fresh liquidity injection. Historically, Bitcoin has performed well when there is increased liquidity. Many analysts have pointed out that a massive inflow of liquidity from the US and other international markets could catalyze the next bull run of Bitcoin.

因此，許多人認為主要市場經濟成長疲軟和聯準會潛在降息對比特幣價格有利，因為他們可能會看到新的流動性注入。從歷史上看，當流動性增加時，比特幣表現良好。許多分析師指出，來自美國和其他國際市場的大量流動性流入可能會催化比特幣的下一輪牛市。

Also, the current market situation has been compared to the 2019-2020 period, during which external conditions like the COVID-19 pandemic boosted the bull market in Bitcoin, which had a rough few days.

此外，目前的市場狀況與 2019-2020 年期間進行了比較，在此期間，像 COVID-19 大流行這樣的外部條件推動了比特幣的牛市，比特幣的牛市經歷了幾天的艱難。

Although there is no such black swan event in place at the moment, most experts believe that macroeconomic indicators, such as increasing inflation and overall economic instability, may well spark the next rally of Bitcoin.

儘管目前還沒有出現這樣的黑天鵝事件，但大多數專家認為，通膨加劇和整體經濟不穩定等宏觀經濟指標很可能引發比特幣的下一次反彈。

The founder of MN Capital believes that this cycle may be the most natural of the previous ones because it is not associated with a particular event but with the general development of the market. According to the author’s current assessment, the risk of a sudden and severe market crash is also negligible. However, such a price correction may lead to significant gains due to increased liquidity.

MN Capital創辦人認為，這個週期可能是先前週期中最自然的一個，因為它與特定事件無關，而是與市場的整體發展相關。根據筆者目前的評估，市場突然嚴重崩盤的風險也可以忽略不計。然而，由於流動性增加，這種價格調整可能會帶來顯著收益。